Predicting Which Team Will Finish Dead Last in Every CFB Conference in 2016
Every college football team has high hopes during the offseason; that's a given. But in a few months, reality will set in, and we'll start to see the cream rise to the top. And consequently, the dregs will dip to the bottom.
Someone has to finish in last place in every league, but to predict who that will be isn't as easy as you'd think. Just like the top contenders are all susceptible to having a bay day—and thus losing a game—even the worst teams can have luck go their way and pull out a few victories.
Seven of last year's last-place FBS teams went winless in their conferences, while the other three managed to win at least once.
Check out our predictions for who will finish at the bottom in all 10 FBS conferences. For leagues with two divisions, our picks are the teams that will be in last on their sides and will either have a worse record than the other division doormats or will have lost to them in crossover play.
ACC: Wake Forest
1 of 10
2015 record: 3-9, 1-7
Returning starters: 16
Best chance for a league victory: Nov. 26 vs. Boston College
Wake Forest was on the winning end of an epically bad 3-0 game at Boston College last year, the Demon Deacons' second ACC victory in as many seasons in which they failed to score a touchdown. They're 0-13 under Dave Clawson in league games when they find the end zone.
That's not exactly the foundation that a rebuild comes from, and Clawson's third year is heading in the same direction: stagnant but with promise.
There are options at quarterback—pro-style signal-caller John Wolford or dual-threat QB Kendall Hinton—but without someone to hand off to (Wake was sixth-worst in the country in rushing in 2015), there won't be the necessary balance. That puts added pressure on a defense that has held its own but eventually breaks down due to being on the field so much. It only forced 11 turnovers last year.
Wake has the misfortune of being in the same division as the ACC's top three teams (Clemson, Florida State and Louisville), but it also gets to play both BC and Syracuse. Each comes to Winston-Salem, though both times are right after tough two-game stretches that will have the Deacons ripe for a letdown performance.
American: Tulane
2 of 10
2015 record: 3-9, 1-7
Returning starters: 12
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 29 vs. SMU
Tulane went 7-6 and played in the New Orleans Bowl in 2013, falling to Louisiana-Lafayette in a game that drew more than 54,000 fans to the Superdome. It's been all downhill for the Green Wave ever since, and the 2016 season isn't lining up to be much better.
That bowl loss was part of a 1-4 finish and began what is now a 7-22 run for the program, leading to head coach Curtis Johnson's firing. Tulane made a great hire in Willie Fritz, who successfully transitioned Georgia Southern from the FCS ranks, but getting the Green Wave out of the AAC basement isn't going to be as easy.
First, he'll have to fix the offense—or at least generate some. Tulane ranked 119th out of 128 FBS teams last season with 317 yards per game, scoring 117 points in its wins (including a 45-31 victory over winless Central Florida for its lone league victory) and 119 in its losses. And only four offensive starters return.
Adding to the task is Tulane's position on the side of the American where almost everyone can score quickly—and in bunches. Houston, Memphis, Navy and Tulsa all averaged at least 36 points per game, and SMU scored at least 30 points on six occasions.
The Green Wave face UCF again this fall, but the contest is on the road on a Friday night. With first-year coach Scott Frost bringing his playbook over from Oregon, the Knights aren't likely to go winless again.
Big Ten: Purdue
3 of 10
2015 record: 2-10, 1-7
Returning starters: 16
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 1 at Maryland
Purdue is tied with Rutgers for the most returning starters in the Big Ten, but when that group was outscored 297-180 in league games last year, its collective experience doesn't hold as much weight. If not for a major outlier performance against Nebraska, when the Boilermakers scored 55 points, they would have gone winless in the league for the second time in three years under head coach Darrell Hazell.
Hazell kept his job partly because so many other teams were searching for coaches last offseason, including several of Purdue's contemporaries, though another bottom-feeder season might change that. To avoid that, quarterback David Blough and running back Markell Jones have to improve on their freshmen seasons, with Jones slated to become more of a workhorse following the season-ending knee injury to No. 2 rusher D.J. Knox.
The schedule doesn't help the Boilermakers' cause, with their four league home games coming against Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Their “easier” games are all on the road, including the Big Ten opener at Maryland, but they're 1-14 on the road under Hazell, with the only victory coming in 2014 at Illinois.
Maryland and Rutgers, which tied for last in the East Division in 2015, are also candidates for last-place finishes. However, one of them is guaranteed to get a league victory because of their head-to-head matchup, and each has other winnable home games.
Big 12: Kansas
4 of 10
2015 record: 0-12, 0-9
Returning starters: 16
Best chance for a league victory: Nov. 12 vs. Iowa State
Kansas could be much better this season under second-year coach David Beaty, but “better” is a relative term when coming off a winless season in which most games were decided in the first half. Any improvement will have to be considerable to keep the Jayhawks from finishing in the cellar in the Big 12 for the second year in a row and the fifth time since the league dropped down to 10 teams in 2011.
The Jayhawks have lost 15 straight games, are 4-57 in the Big 12 since 2009 and haven't won multiple league games in the same season since 2008. They've dropped 34 consecutive road games, last winning a Big 12 road game in October 2008.
Kansas was forced to play a ton of freshmen last season due to injuries and various other forms of roster attrition, and while that led to horrible results, it means there's more experience to work with. SB Nation's Bill Connelly, in proclaiming that "there's almost no way Kansas doesn't improve in 2016," noted the biggest improvements should come in the passing game and the secondary.
Aside from picking off someone who is having a bad Saturday, Kansas' only hope of a league win comes against Iowa State. That game will be after the Jayhawks have played consecutive road games at Oklahoma and West Virginia, while ISU will have had its previous two at home and will be on extra rest after hosting Oklahoma on a Thursday.
Conference USA: Charlotte
5 of 10
2015 record: 2-10, 0-8
Returning starters: 18
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 15 vs. Florida International
Charlotte is entering its second full season of FBS play, having played a mix of FCS, Division II and III and NAIA schools in 2013-14 as it got the program up and running. The 49ers' two wins came in their first two games, including a season-opening win at Georgia State, but a massive rash of turnovers prevented them from building off that strong start.
Only Maryland (36) gave the ball away more than Charlotte, which threw 23 interceptions and lost 12 fumbles. It forced 22 turnovers thanks to an aggressive defense, one that averaged more than seven tackles for loss per game, yet the 49ers still allowed 36.3 points per contest.
The 49ers could have a hidden gem this season in quarterback Kevin Olsen, who began his career at Miami (Florida) and was in the running to be its starter in 2014 before getting suspended and eventually dismissed from the team. He was the No. 5 pro-style passer in the 2013 recruiting class.
Charlotte has the misfortune of being on the tougher side of Conference USA, which means only playing a few of the West Division's lot of poor teams. That group will beat up on itself, so all will grab a win or two, while the 49ers end up having to face three of the league's five bowl qualifiers from a year ago.
Mid-American: Eastern Michigan
6 of 10
2015 record: 1-11, 0-8
Returning starters: 16
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 29 vs. Miami (Ohio)
If you're looking for a candidate for the worst program in the FBS, Eastern Michigan should start (and probably end) the conversation. The Eagles haven't finished above .500 in 21 years and last appeared in a bowl game in 1987 despite being in a league that has seen its allotment of bowl bids increase dramatically of late.
The Eagles have lost 14 straight Mid-American games, their closest result last year a season-ending seven-point setback at Central Michigan in which they blew a 21-7 halftime lead. No wonder the school's faculty recommended a drop to FCS or an elimination of football altogether.
Eastern Michigan is on the tougher side of the MAC, having to face not only the other directional Michigan schools each year, but also Toledo and perennial power Northern Illinois. And with Massachusetts no longer in the league, there's no hope of being able to pick off that fledgling FBS program in a crossover game (though EMU lost by 11 at home to the Minutemen in 2015).
Mountain West: Wyoming
7 of 10
2015 record: 2-10, 2-6
Returning starters: 16
Best chance for a league victory: Nov. 12 at UNLV
Craig Bohl was the architect of what is now five consecutive FCS national titles for North Dakota State, but he left after the first three for an ambitious gig at Wyoming. In doing so, he's lost more games in two years (18) than he did in his final five seasons with the Bison (15).
The third year is often when a new coach starts turning a program around, but Wyoming's offseason hasn't been full of positives. Most recently, projected starting cornerback C.J. Jennings left the program to transfer to an FCS school.
Wyoming has one of the best mid-major offensive weapons in the country in junior running back Brian Hill, who ran for 1,631 yards last season. He has five career 200-yard games, but he also has five games averaging 3.6 yards per carry or fewer on at least 18 touches. He's an all-or-nothing player that the Cowboys rely heavily on.
The Cowboys were the only Mountain Division team to not make a bowl last season, and the five teams above them should all be good again. The West Division is where most of the bad MWC teams are, including Hawaii, which was winless in the league in 2015 but is usually good for a win or two at home by taking advantage of opponents' adjustments to the time change.
Pac-12: Oregon State
8 of 10
2015 record: 2-10, 0-9
Returning starters: 14
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 1 at Colorado
For the second year in a row, the Colorado-Oregon State game figures to be the one that determines who takes possession of the basement in the Pac-12. Last year, Colorado managed to claim a 17-13 win at Oregon State in late October, ending a 14-game conference losing streak, and this time around, OSU will be bringing an 11-game league skid into Boulder.
The Beavers averaged 19 points per game last season, failing to score more than 13 in half of their outings (but then putting up 42 in the Civil War against rival Oregon). Freshman quarterback Seth Collins was electric as a runner but couldn't throw effectively, and after being converted to receiver, he announced his transfer to Northern Illinois before backing off that plan.
OSU will have former Utah State quarterback Darell Garretson as its starter this time around, but overall, it is lacking the weapons needed to compete in the offensive-minded Pac-12. Its defense allowed 52 or more points four times last year, including in each of the last three games, and it is still a work in progress.
Colorado, which is only 5-40 in the Pac-12 since joining in 2011, tends to play better at home. Last year, the Buffaloes lost home games by three to USC and by seven to Arizona.
SEC: Vanderbilt
9 of 10
2015 record: 4-8, 2-6
Returning starters: 15
Best chance for a league victory: Sept. 1 vs. South Carolina
Even the best league in the FBS has to have a worst team, and the SEC's East Division has quite a few of them. Last year, the quartet of Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt went a combined 6-26 in league play, and all of those wins were against each other.
From that group, the only team that doesn't have any sort of momentum on its side is Vanderbilt. While Missouri and South Carolina have new coaches and new schemes and Kentucky has been perilously close to being bowl-eligible the past two seasons, Vandy has hovered at the bottom of the league since James Franklin went to Penn State after the 2013 season and was replaced by Derek Mason.
Mason's Commodores teams have averaged 16.2 points per game in his tenure, 14.4 against FBS opponents and 13.0 against the SEC. One of their league wins in 2015 was by a 10-3 score against a Missouri team that was in the midst of a one-month stretch without scoring a touchdown.
While Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee has predicted Vandy will make a bowl game this season, that would require either winning on the road—it's 1-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC in road games under Mason—or pulling a significant upset at home. Outside of the Thursday night season opener against South Carolina, the other league home games are against Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe
10 of 10
2015 record: 2-11, 1-7
Returning starters: 11
Best chance for a league victory: Oct. 8 vs. Idaho
Louisiana-Monroe avoided a winless league record by knocking off New Mexico State in its season finale in December, a game that saw the Warhawks score 42 points (double their average) despite only 303 yards of total offense. They figure to be much sharper with the ball in 2016 thanks to new coach Matt Viator's system, but defense will remain a major issue.
ULM allowed 27 rushing touchdowns and 29 passing scores last season, forcing only 14 turnovers in the process. And that was with a front seven from which only one starter returns, while top corner Trey Caldwell is also gone.
The Sun Belt is lousy with bad teams at the bottom, though, so ULM isn't a lock to finish last. You could throw the Warhawks into a hat with Idaho, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State and Troy, and they all could finish as high as sixth or as low as 11th. We went with ULM, though, because it has to play all five of the league's best teams (Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette), and only rival ULL is at home.
That means the Warhawks get Idaho, Texas State and South Alabama at home, the first two in consecutive weeks, but the sheer number of early road blowouts they're apt to suffer—they play at Oklahoma, Georgia Southern and Auburn in a four-week span—could have a lingering affect.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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