Early Power Rankings for Top 15 College Football QBs for 2016
College football is saying goodbye to some superb quarterbacks from the 2015 season, including the national leader in passing yards and touchdowns (Western Kentucky's Brandon Doughty) as well as possible first-round draft picks in California's Jared Goff and Memphis' Paxton Lynch.
But fear nor, fans of the forward pass: The position won't be lacking for outstanding players in 2016.
Two of the four playoff teams from this past year return their quarterbacks, as do roughly half of the teams that finished in the final Associated Press Top 25. And that's just part of the slew of big arms and dual threats who are expected to shine during the 2016 season.
Which ones figure to stand out more than others? Using their recent results and projected performance, we've put together an early power ranking of the top 15 quarterbacks for 2016.
15. Jake Browning, Washington
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Jake Browning set national prep records for touchdown passes in a season and for his career, but the transition to the college game took a little while. Four of his first six starts as a true freshman last year resulted in fewer than 200 yards, then he missed Washington's loss at Stanford with a shoulder injury.
But after coming back from that absence, it was like Browning had suddenly been transformed into an older and more-polished passer. He averaged 270.5 passing yards over his final six games, twice throwing four touchdown passes including an 18-of-20 performance at Oregon State.
All told, Browning threw for 2,955 yards and 16 TDs. Give him a full offseason as the Huskies' clear No. 1 quarterback option, and he's why they're getting pegged as a dark horse for both the Pac-12 title and a playoff push.
14. Brett Rypien, Boise State
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The nephew of former NFL standout quarterback Mark Rypien, Brett Rypien wasn't expected to play in 2015 as a true freshman. Then Boise's starter, Ryan Finley, went down with an injury in the third game of the season and Rypien's future became the present.
He threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns on 24-of-35 passing in his first start, on the road against a power-conference team (Virginia). NBC Sports' John Taylor described it as "looking like a quarterback making his 21st and not first career start," and any chance of him returning to a backup role was gone.
That was the first of five 300-yard games, including a 503-yard performance in a loss to New Mexico. He ended the year with a 377-yard, three-TD game in the blowout bowl win over Northern Illinois.
Rypien wasn't without mistakes, twice getting picked off three times in a game, but his numbers were comparable with what school career passing leader Kellen Moore had as a redshirt freshman in 2008.
13. Quinton Flowers, South Florida
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South Florida was 1-3 and looking at another losing season, which would have been the program's fifth in a row and third under coach Willie Taggart. Then the Bulls made a major mid-year turnaround, winning seven of eight and contending for a division title in the American Athletic Conference.
Not coincidentally, that surge came as sophomore Quinton Flowers transformed from a dual-threat quarterback with promise to one who was producing results.
Flowers averaged 283 yards of total offense over South Florida's final nine games, finishing with 34 total touchdowns that included 12 rushing scores and 991 yards. He threw 14 TD passes over his final five games, with just two interceptions in his last seven.
South Florida returns its top two receivers and productive running back Marlon Mack as well, but Flowers is the engine that makes the Bulls offense move.
12. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
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Coach Bobby Petrino has turned to four different quarterbacks in his two seasons at Louisville, the result of an unending search to find the right guy for his offense. He's found it in Lamar Jackson, who once he figured out what his best skills were he unleashed them in full force.
That starts and ends with Jackson's amazing mobility and field vision, enabling him to run for 960 yards and 11 touchdowns despite only starting seven games. He topped 100 yards five times, going for 412 yards over the Cardinals' final two contests, and in the Music City Bowl win over Texas A&M he managed to combine that with big plays in the passing game.
Jackson threw for 227 yards and two TDs and ran for 226 yards and two scores in that game, giving him a huge effort to build off during the offseason. If he can become more consistent with his throws—he completed only 54.7 percent of his passes and had eight interceptions—he'll be the complete package.
11. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
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At this time a year ago, DeShone Kizer was no better than third on Notre Dame's quarterback depth chart. And that was a distant third, as the impending spring practice was all about the battle between Everett Golson and Malik Zaire for the starting job.
Then Golson decided to transfer, after losing out to Zaire, which moved Kizer up a notch for his redshirt freshman season. And when Zaire got hurt midway through the Fighting Irish's second game, suddenly a prospect with a promising future became Notre Dame's best hope for success.
And Kizer did not disappoint, showing off one of the best deep-ball throws in the country as well as the poise that belied his complete lack of experience. He finished with 2,880 passing yards and 21 touchdowns along with 10 rushing scores.
The starting job isn't guaranteed to be his in 2016, though, since Zaire should be fully healed from a broken ankle and ready to win back his gig. If what we've seen from Kizer is any indication, he'll be ready for the competition.
10. Luke Falk, Washington State
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Washington State has led the nation in passing offense for the past two seasons, and Luke Falk has been a big part of that each time. In 2014 he was thrust into action as a redshirt freshman after Connor Halliday broke his leg in early November, and he responded by averaging more than 430 yards per game.
He was on a similar pace this past season, with 4,067 yards and 35 touchdowns through 10 games, before a scary head injury knocked Falk out of a game against Colorado. He was carted off the field and missed the following week's loss to rival Washington, but returned for the Cougars' Sun Bowl win with 295 yards and two scores.
Falk finished the year with 38 TD passes, most in school history, and his 69.4 percent completion rate ranked him second nationally. Only eight of his 644 pass attempts were intercepted, an astoundingly low rate for how frequent he put the ball in the air.
The 2016 season should be even bigger for Falk, as he gets back seven targets who caught at least 30 passes including 104-catch wideout Gabe Marks.
9. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech
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Put Patrick Mahomes II on a team with even a serviceable defense, and he's a Heisman Trophy candidate. He might just be in spite of Texas Tech's inability to make a stop if he continues on the pace he's been during his first two seasons.
The 2015 national leader in total offense per game, Mahomes averaged 393 yards as a passer and ball-carrier and accounted for 46 touchdowns. He also threw 15 interceptions, though, often trying to do it all himself and thus forcing the issue.
So it goes when your team is either constantly playing from behind or within a shootout, where it can ill afford not to score on every possession. The Red Raiders allowed 43.6 points per game, fourth worst in FBS.
But even in that atmosphere, Mahomes still thrived. He had four 400-yard games and five with at least four TD passes.
8. Seth Russell, Baylor
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Before suffering a scary neck injury in mid-October that cut short his junior season, Seth Russell was making this whole quarterback thing look like child's play. The miracles of modern medicine has made it so he could be able to participate in spring practice, which would pave the way for him picking up where he left off.
Russell will have to beat out the man who shined during his absence, freshman Jarrett Stidham, making for what should be a spirited competition. Considering how well Russell played before getting hurt, we're giving him the edge in that battle.
Two years backing up Bryce Petty made for an easy transition into the starting role for Russell, who in seven games in 2015 threw for 2,104 yards and 29 touchdowns on just 200 pass attempts. He and wide receiver Corey Coleman were a lethal combination, the duo hooking up for 18 scores, and when Russell got hurt the connection just wasn't there for Coleman and Baylor's other quarterbacks.
Coleman is off to the NFL, but there are plenty of other targets for Russell to work with. He'll be operating behind a rebuilt offensive line, but his poise in the pocket last season (as well as 402 rushing yards and six TDs) will help him overcome the inexperience up front.
7. Brad Kaaya, Miami (Florida)
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Brad Kaaya has started all but one game during his first two seasons in college, racking up 6,436 passing yards and 42 touchdowns along the way. What he's done so far has been great, but it's about to get even better.
That's because Kaaya will now get to work with Mark Richt, the recently dispatched Georgia coach who during his exit from that program after 15 seasons said "I'd be really excited about coaching QBs again and getting in the middle of coaching offensive strategy," per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That has to be music to Kaaya's ears, as his new head coach is coming in with a level of excitement and motivation that should translate into big things for his junior year.
Kaaya managed to play through the turmoil of 2015, when coach Al Golden was fired after seven games and then he missed the eighth with a concussion. He averaged 278.4 yards over the final five games.
6. Greg Ward Jr., Houston
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Coach Tom Herman must have really missed working with Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, because in his first year as Houston's head coach he did everything he could to turn Greg Ward Jr. into a carbon copy of his previous quarterback.
Ward was the most explosive dual-threat passer of the country last season, his 21 rushing touchdowns second only to Navy's Keenan Reynolds among quarterbacks. That came along with 1,108 yards on the ground, with four 100-yard games and seven in which he scored at least twice, while through the air Ward had 2,828 yards and 17 TDs and a 67.2 percent completion rate.
With Ward navigating the Cougars offense, they went 13-1 (with the only loss coming while he was limited with an ankle injury) and knocked off three power-conference teams, including against Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
Houston will again be a major threat in 2016, with Ward being the main focus of opponents' game plans. That starts with Oklahoma, which faces him and the Cougars to open the season.
5. Josh Rosen, UCLA
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UCLA went from a three-year starter at quarterback in 2014 to a true freshman in 2015, from a mobile passer to a pure pro-style arm. Despite those changes, there was very little about the Bruins offense that changed from one season to the next, and Josh Rosen's poised play had a lot to do with that.
Rosen had one of the best seasons ever for a first-year college player, throwing for 3,669 yards and 23 touchdowns. His debut was a thing of brilliance, completing 28-of-35 passes for 350 yards and three TDs and he followed that up with five more 300-yard games. He also had the kind of ups and downs you'd expect from someone so inexperienced, resulting in him throwing 11 interceptions including two apiece in season-ending losses to USC and Nebraska.
"His 11 picks and a so-so completion rate indicates that there’s plenty of growth potential, but he’ll be forced to do so without veteran coordinator Noel Mazzone and the team’s top two receivers, Jordan Payton and Thomas Duarte," ESPN's Travis Haney wrote. "With that arm talent, though, do not expect Rosen to take a step back."
Paired with the right play-caller, Rosen should continue to rise.
4. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
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Chad Kelly arrived at Ole Miss with questions about his character, a general concern that his off-the-field history could impact his ability to succeed between the lines. That contributed to him having to share snaps with two others to start the 2015 season.
And he still obliterated most of the school's passing records, including those previously held by Eli Manning. He threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and 10 scores.
Kelly's decision to return to school has been praised by experts, with Bleacher Report's Matt Miller noting he "needs more film, needs more time between incidents" to improve his draft stock. It was even more lauded by Ole Miss' coaches and fans, since the loss of three other standout juniors to the NFL will be felt this fall, and having Kelly back helps ease the pain.
There's still some gunslinger in Kelly that can get him in trouble, as he threw 13 interceptions, though only one came over the final four games.
3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
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The emergence of Baker Mayfield was as integral to Oklahoma's push toward the playoffs as any other player, the perfect pilot to operate the Sooners' move back to an uptempo, pass-oriented offense. His senior year should prove to be just as productive.
Thanks to his experience in a similar scheme at Texas Tech before he transferred, once eligible Mayfield stepped right in and excelled with the quick-strike offense. But he also brought to the table a level of mobility that isn't often seen from an Air Raid passer.
Though he only ran for 405 yards and seven touchdowns, when Mayfield put his mind toward scrambling some good things would happen. And that further opened up his passing opportunities, leading to 3,700 yards and 36 TDs.
Mayfield seems to thrive on rejection, whether it's real or perceived. Losing a year of eligibility after leaving Texas Tech drove his play during the regular season, and not getting an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony (as well as the playoff loss to Clemson) will motivate him to aim even higher in 2016.
2. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
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Consider 2015 an aberration when it comes to evaluating J.T. Barrett, at least the first half of that season. Once Ohio State wised up and let him hold the reins to the offense, it didn't take long for him to return to the form we saw when he was a redshirt freshman.
Barrett still managed to produce 22 touchdowns last year despite not becoming the starter until halfway through, with 20 of those scores coming over his final seven games. He won't have to battle with Cardale Jones for playing time in 2016, and with the Buckeyes losing so many impact offensive players they'll be leaning heavily on Barrett to pick up the slack.
That shouldn't be a problem, since that was the case in 2014 when he stepped in for Braxton Miller and set numerous school records before breaking his ankle.
Barrett has accounted for 67 TDs in his career, including 22 rushing scores on only 286 carries.
1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson
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Deshaun Watson is in a class by himself when it comes to college quarterbacks, and that's not hyperbole. He is, literally, the only player in FBS history to throw for more than 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in a single season, getting to 4,104 passing yards with 35 touchdowns and 1,105 rushing yards with 12 scores.
And while Clemson fell short in the national title game, it wasn't due to his play. He accounted for 478 of the Tigers' 550 yards in the 40-35 loss.
"Watson's performance against Alabama generated a ton of momentum for him entering the offseason, and he'll enter the new season as a high-profile star with massive expectations," Sports On Earth's Matt Brown wrote (h/t Yahoo!).
He finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2015 and heads into his junior season as the early front-runner, per OddsShark.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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