College Football Playoff 2016: Final Odds and Predictions for Semifinals

The long wait to determine college football's national champion is nearing an end. Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma have known for more than three weeks they were the final four teams and are going to get their moment in the spotlight Thursday.   

All four teams in the College Football Playoff have exhibited their dominance throughout this season, but there have also been some cracks in the armor that make them vulnerable. 

Before Clemson and Oklahoma kick things off in the Orange Bowl, here are the final odds for the College Football Playoff games and predictions for both matchups. 

Game	Matchup	Favorite	Over/Under
Orange Bowl	No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma	Clemson (-3.5)	64.5
Cotton Bowl	No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State	Alabama (-10)	46.5

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Of the two semifinal games, Clemson vs. Oklahoma is the one most likely to be won thanks to a crucial turnover or a defensive stop because these offenses are going to put up a lot of points. 

These two teams combined to score more than 84 points per game in 2015, and neither has scored fewer than 30 points in a game since Nov. 7 (Clemson vs. Florida State). 

Both defenses finished in the top 25 in points allowed per game, but some of that can be attributed to their offenses getting out to such fast starts and forcing the opposition to throw as a way to keep pace. 

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield will be the biggest stars on the field. Watson was a Heisman Trophy finalist after racking up 4,404 total yards and 41 touchdowns. Mayfield accounted for 3,809 total yards and 42 touchdowns (35 passing). 

If the game does come down to turnovers, Oklahoma has a huge edge with a plus-10 margin during the regular season. Clemson had a minus-two margin with Watson throwing six more interceptions than Mayfield. 

Clemson is able to get away with more mistakes because head coach Dabo Swinney has done a masterful job of stacking his roster with talent on defense, as noted by Jerry Palm of CBS Sports:

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On defense, the Tigers come in at No. 7, which should not be a surprise. Defense has been Clemson's bread and butter in recent years. Alabama, with the nation's second-ranked defense, is the only playoff team rated higher ... but we're not picking the national title game here, just the semifinal.

Oklahoma has won on the back of its prolific offense. Clemson has shown it can with either way, and that's why I like the Tigers on New Year's Eve.

"

Yet as good as Clemson's defense has been overall, it's shown signs of cracking down the stretch. South Carolina and North Carolina combined for 69 points and 784 yards in the Tigers' last two games. 

Oklahoma's lone hiccup this season was against Texas, a 24-17 loss on Oct. 10, but the Sooners have been rolling since that defeat with seven straight wins and averaging 52 points per game during that stretch. 

On talent alone, Clemson would have the edge over Oklahoma. But factoring in talent and recent performance, the Sooners come into the playoffs firing on all cylinders and will avenge last year's 40-6 defeat at the hands of Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl. 

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Clemson 34

Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State

The only team in the College Football Playoff that doesn't offer any surprise is Alabama. Everyone knows the Crimson Tide are going to feed 2015 Heisman winner Derrick Henry the ball and ride a powerful defensive front to victory. 

It's a strategy that's worked to perfection for Alabama, which has won 10 straight games since a 43-37 loss against Mississippi, and head coach Nick Saban does not deviate from it. 

Henry's powerful running style has been nearly impossible to contain, particularly in the second half, when opposing defenses are tired and unable to wrap up with the same strength and tenacity they do early in games. 

Rick Drummond of Pro Football Focus broke down how much of Henry's success this season came after initial contact:

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Against Power-5 competition, Henry and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey are essentially neck-and-neck at the top in attempts and yards, but Henry’s 978 yards after contact leads the country, (well in front of second place Royce Freeman of Oregon) as do his 16 rushing touchdowns (just ahead of Ezekiel Elliot’s 15 for Ohio State).

Henry’s 21 breakaway runs (of 15-plus yards) and the 646 yards gained on them are both second to Freeman, while his impressive total of 56 missed tackles forced trails only the 58 that Freeman and UCLA’s Paul Perkins have produced.

"

The biggest challenge for Alabama will come if there's a close game that requires quarterback Jake Coker to put together a final drive. He's been hidden well this year thanks to Henry's brilliance. Coker has thrown fewer passes (338) than Henry has carries (339). 

Big Ten champion Michigan State's season has been a combination of luck and making big plays at the right time. The Spartans got the greatest gift in 2015 when Michigan punter Blake O'Neill fumbled a snap on the final play of their Oct. 17 game.

The Spartans showed their iron will in wins against Ohio State, without quarterback Connor Cook, and Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game with a masterful 22-play touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. 

This isn't a typical Michigan State team, as head coach Mark Dantonio's usually stout defense has been inconsistent this season. There is a way to burn that group, but it doesn't play into Alabama's strength on offense.

Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports tweeted out during the Big Ten title game how a team should attack Michigan State's defense:

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I give Iowa the same advice I give all teams against MSU: try them deep. Just try it.

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) December 6, 2015"

Alabama doesn't have that big-play upside with the passing game. Leading receiver Calvin Ridley averaged 11.9 yards per reception, and the seven players with at least 10 catches all averaged fewer than 12 yards per catch. 

Alabama's defense has tightened up since that loss to Ole Miss, but there's also an argument the Crimson Tide haven't played an explosive offense since that game. Teams like Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M and Florida aren't offensive juggernauts. 

Michigan State doesn't try to outscore opponents like Clemson and Oklahoma, but it did break the 30-point barrier eight times in 13 games this season. 

The Spartans are heavy underdogs because Alabama will always be given the benefit of the doubt, but Michigan State is a better team with more ways to win. 

Prediction: Michigan State 20, Alabama 13