Rose Bowl 2016: Final Odds and Prediction for Stanford vs. Iowa

New Year's Day still belongs to the Rose Bowl with a stellar matchup featuring the Pac-12 champion Stanford Cardinal taking on one of 2015's biggest surprises, the Iowa Hawkeyes, in Pasadena, California. 

Despite losing just one game all year, a three-point loss against third-ranked Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, Iowa is still looking for respect. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers don't seem ready to give it to the Hawkeyes. 

Favorite	Over/Under
Stanford (-6)	53.5

Game Preview

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

If there is such a thing as a College Football Playoff consolation game, it's the 2016 Rose Bowl. The Hawkeyes and the Cardinal finished fifth and sixth, respectively, in the final standings released by the selection committee, but there is a case to be made that either or both belonged in the Top Four. 

Stanford seemed like it had no shot at even entering the playoff discussion after losing its second game of the season—a 38-36 loss against the Oregon Ducks on Nov. 14—but head coach David Shaw got his team on the right track over the final three games that included a dramatic win over eighth-ranked Notre Dame. 

Heisman Trophy finalist running back Christian McCaffrey gets all the accolades for Stanford, and deservedly so, but quarterback Kevin Hogan is the unheralded offensive star. 

Kevin Connaghan of Pro Football Focus named the Cardinal quarterback one of the 10 biggest breakout players of 2015 after he completed a career-high 68.6 percent of his passes and 24 touchdowns:

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He sprang into life towards the end of the 2014 season, earning a +11 grade through the final three games, that dragged his grade for the year up to +0.8.

It seemed set to be the same old story when Hogan opened 2015 with a -3.5 grade in the Cardinal’s loss at Northwestern, but that was easily his worst display of the season. Stanford rallied from that point, with Hogan’s the steady hand at the tiller. He threw for 2,644 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions, earning an impressive +23.5 overall grade and finally delivering on his potential.

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Pairing Hogan's efforts with what McCaffrey has done gives Stanford one of the best quarterback-running back tandems in the nation. 

Going back to Pro Football Focus, Steve Palazzolo placed McCaffrey on the website's All-American team with the second-best player grade of any offensive player on the roster:

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His +29.5 rushing grade ranked second in the nation and his +13.3 receiving grade topped all running backs. We know all about his passing the legendary Barry Sanders in all-purpose yards, but McCaffrey’s work as a kick returner was more than just empty stats as his +9.5 grade also led the nation. When you add it up, few players impacted his team in as many areas as McCaffrey and he was one of — if not the — best players in the nation.

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The usually strong defense boasted by the Cardinal has not been there this year, as it is allowing 23.1 points per game, so Hogan's breakout and McCaffrey's dazzling efforts have been necessary to keep the team among the nation's elite. 

In fact, five of Stanford's last six opponents have scored at least 22 points. However, the offense has come through with at least 30 points in each of those six games. 

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Iowa is essentially the inverse of Stanford, relying on a stout, tough-minded defense and an offense that is tasked with doing just enough to win games. 

The Hawkeyes finished the regular season ranked 15th in the nation with 18.5 points allowed per game, though they were showing signs of bending before the Michigan State game with four consecutive opponents breaking the 20-point barrier. 

One thing Iowa's defense does is keep the team ahead in the fourth quarter, as Andrew Mather of the Stanford Daily pointed out in his Rose Bowl breakdown.

"The particularly telling figure about Iowa’s year is the amount of time the team trailed in the fourth quarter all season: 39 seconds, all against Michigan State," Mather wrote. "It’s hard to accrue too many losses while controlling games like that."

A potential problem for Iowa's offense is the health of running back Jordan Canzeri, who left the Big Ten Championship Game in the first quarter with an ankle injury and did not return. 

Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz was not forthcoming about the status of Canzeri for the Rose Bowl during a Dec. 6 press conference, per Chad Leistikow of the Des Moines Register:

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It’s a sprain, so they're tricky. We have seen him come back in two weeks, and sometimes it takes longer. So we'll keep our fingers crossed, especially for his sake. It's his last chance to play a college football game. So I sure would hope that he can be back full speed for this game.

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While a few weeks have passed since that statement, Canzeri will have to prove early that he's prepared to shoulder the load against Stanford. He's their best playmaker, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns on 178 carries. 

If Canzeri isn't prepared to carry the burden, Iowa does have running back options, such as LeShun Daniels, but Ferentz may be forced to use quarterback C.J. Beathard more than he normally would. 

Prediction

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Even though Iowa kept finding ways to win games during the regular season and nearly won the Big Ten title—only falling when Michigan State put together one of the best drives in recent memory, covering 22 plays over nine minutes—this is Stanford's game to lose.

The game is being played in the Cardinal's backyard, and they have arguably the best offensive player in the country (McCaffrey) and an underrated quarterback who is going to end his career with a second Rose Bowl win in three appearances.

Stanford 27, Iowa 17