
Big Ten Championship 2015: Michigan State vs. Iowa Complete Game Preview
For the second consecutive season, a spot in the College Football Playoff will be on the line in the annual Big Ten Championship Game.
But as opposed to last year, when Ohio State started its postseason run by beating Wisconsin 59-0, both teams will presumably be playing for the right to clinch a playoff spot when No. 4 Iowa meets No. 5 Michigan State in Indianapolis this weekend.
The Hawkeyes will arrive in the Circle City following an undefeated run through the regular season, while the Spartans escaped the vaunted Big Ten East with an 11-1 record, including wins over Michigan and Ohio State. The winner will advance to the four-team playoff, while the loser is likely headed to a New Year's Six Game, but either way, you won't find a conference championship game with more on the line for both teams than in the Big Ten.
With that in mind, here's everything you need to know about this weekend's Big Ten Championship Game.
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5
Time: 8:17 p.m. ET
Place: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
TV: Fox
Spread: Michigan State (-3.5), via Odds Shark
Michigan State Keys to Victory
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Beat Up Beathard
The Hawkeyes have gotten to this point thanks in large part to the arm of quarterback C.J. Beathard, who has compiled a quarterback rating of 139.3 while throwing for 2,354 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. The 6'2", 209-pounder has found his success while being kept upright by his offensive line, which has allowed just 20 sacks on the season, the 47th-fewest in college football.
But against Michigan State's monstrous defensive line, the Hawkeyes front five will be put to the test. Defensive end Shilique Calhoun is a three-time first-team All-Big Ten honoree, while Malik McDowell has already emerged as the next anchor of the Spartans defensive line.
If Michigan State can knock Beathard off his game, it could make Iowa rely more heavily on its running attack. That would play right into the hands of the Spartans, who boast the nation's 16th-ranked rushing defense.
Make It Multidimensional
Offensively, it would behoove Michigan State to be balanced as well.
For the most part, the Spartans have been able to do that this season, averaging 239.8 yards per game through the air and 159.8 yards on the ground. Ideally, those numbers would be a little more even, as Michigan State's running attack has been inconsistent at times this season because of a younger backfield and injuries on the offensive line.
But against the Hawkeyes, the Spartans are going to need a strong effort from their three-headed running attack of L.J. Scott, Gerald Holmes and Madre London. Iowa possesses the nation's sixth-ranked rushing defense, so Michigan State will have its work cut out for it, but the Spartans simply can't afford to be one-dimensional against the Hawkeyes this weekend.
Iowa Keys to Victory
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Cook Connor Cook
Arguably the most valuable player in all the Big Ten, Connor Cook has saved the best for last in his college career, throwing for 2,730 yards, 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions with at least two games left in the Spartans season. With Michigan State's ground game being inconsistent, Cook has been the one constant, accumulating a passer rating of 146.7.
In order to prevent the Spartans senior signal-caller from taking over the game, the Hawkeyes' front seven is going to need to get to Cook early and often. Bringing down the 6'4", 220-pounder is no easy task either, as he has been sacked just 12 times in the 2015 season.
But if Iowa's defense, which ranks 52nd in the nation with 27 sacks, can find a way to get to Cook, it will be up to the Spartans' young backfield to carry the team to the Big Ten championship. And against the Hawkeyes stout run defense, that will be easier said than done.
Run, Jordan, Run
While Beathard may garner more headlines, Iowa wouldn't be where it is today without the emergence of running back Jordan Canzeri. The 5'9", 192-pound senior has been the Hawkeyes' lead runner, totaling 964 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season.
He's coming off a 140-yard, two-touchdown performance in Iowa's regular-season finale against Nebraska, and the Hawkeyes are going to need another strong showing from their senior running back. The Spartans defense might be tougher against the run than it is against the pass, but if Beathard is going to have success in the air, he'll need to do it based on a balanced attack.
Given what he's already accomplished this season, Canzeri seems capable of providing the Hawkeyes with just that. It's hard to imagine Iowa advancing to the College Football Playoff without Canzeri scoring at least one touchdown Saturday.
Michigan State Players to Watch
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Malik McDowell
Securing McDowell, a former 5-star prospect, may have been Mark Dantonio's best recruiting job since arriving in East Lansing. Also sought after by Ohio State and Michigan, the Detroit native decided to spend his college career at Michigan State, a sign of the Spartans' emerging status in the college football world.
After playing in spot duty as a freshman, the 6'6", 275-pound McDowell has lived up to the expectations in his sophomore season, tallying 37 tackles, 11.5 of which have come for a loss, and 4.5 sacks. In Michigan State's regular-season finale against Penn State, McDowell put his athleticism on full display, returning an interception 13 yards for a touchdown against the Nittany Lions.
Against Iowa's multidimensional offensive attack, Michigan State will need McDowell to help control the line of scrimmage, pressure Beathard and bottle up Canzeri. Calhoun is the elder statesman, but McDowell his been the breakout star of the Spartans defense this season and has proved to be one big play just waiting to happen.
Aaron Burbridge
While Michigan State entered 2015 with major question marks at its skill positions, wide receiver Aaron Burbridge has emerged as not just one of the best in the Big Ten but all of the country. After catching no more than 29 balls in a single season prior to his senior year, the 6'1", 208-pounder has recorded 74 receptions for 1,148 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
A lock to be an All-Big Ten selection, Burbridge has been one of the keys to Cook's consistency, despite the losses of wideouts Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery to the NFL. The Farmington Hills, Michigan, native has nearly twice as many receptions on the season as any other player on the Spartans roster, with R.J. Shelton having tallied 38 catches on the year.
With Iowa's pass defense ranking 63rd in the nation, having allowed 221.7 yards per game, Burbridge could be in store for a big day. If Michigan State is going to advance to the College Football Playoff, it's going to need some highlights from its top offensive playmaker.
Iowa Players to Watch
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Desmond King
While the Hawkeyes pass defense has been their Achilles' heel this season, cornerback Desmond King has been one the best defensive players in the Big Ten. The 5'11", 200-pounder has recorded eight interceptions and defended 11 passes, in addition to recording 61 tackles, one of which came for a loss.
As a result, King was named the Big Ten's Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year on Monday.
But Iowa will need the strong showings from King to continue this weekend if it is going to advance to the College Football Playoff. Presumably matched up with Burbridge, the play of the Big Ten's top defensive back will go a long way toward determining how much success the Spartans will find through the air Saturday.
Tevaun Smith
He may not be the Hawkeyes' top offensive weapon or even wide receiver, but the impact that Tevaun Smith can have on a game goes beyond the box score. The 6'2", 205-pound wideout has been Beathard's top deep threat this season, with an average of 17.4 yards per reception on the year.
And while he's only tallied 25 catches on the year, Smith's ability to stretch the field has opened up running lanes for Canzeri and diverted attention away from Iowa's leading wide receiver, Matt VandeBerg. The Toronto native is capable of making plays with the ball in his hands as well, as evidenced by his 81-yard touchdown reception against North Texas on Sept. 26.
Against the Spartans, Iowa may need a similar type of play to take place. But even if it doesn't, count on Smith to make an impact in one form or another Saturday.
What They're Saying
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Well aware of what's on the line this weekend, Dantonio knows that if his team can advance against Iowa, it will likely have a shot at securing the national championship in the playoff. Perhaps that's why the Spartans head coach wasn't shy to compare the progress his team has made this season to the trajectory Ohio State found itself on a year ago, playing its best football in the postseason, starting with the Big Ten title game.
"We’re playing our best football down the stretch," Dantonio said following Michigan State's 55-16 over Penn State on Saturday, per Sports Illustrated's Michael Rosenberg. "If you look at last year’s Big Ten champion, that’s what they were able to do."
As for Iowa, Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz has been shy when it comes to calling his team "national championship-caliber." But that won't stop him from being proud of what his team has already accomplished with its first 12-0 start in program history.
"We're not trying to be pretty, we are just trying to be productive," Ferentz said following Iowa's win over Nebraska on Friday. "That has been our goal from day one. Football is not gymnastics. Gymnastics is a very demanding sport, an outstanding sport. Here it's about having a little more points than your opponent. I'm trying to do it, day after day, week after week. That's a challenge.
"These guys were 12-for-12, you can't do anything better than that."
Prediction
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From the outside looking in, Iowa has been the more consistent team this season, not only because it is the only undefeated team left in the Big Ten but because the Hawkeyes have avoided fewer close calls than Michigan State has in what's been an up-and-down year for the Spartans.
But while Iowa's body of work on the season may seem to favor the Hawkeyes, all Michigan State has to do is be the better team on one night. And with the way the Spartans have played in the past two weeks, including beating Ohio State on the Buckeyes' home turf, that certainly seems possible, if not likely.
Look for Cook to continue his success, possibly earning an invite to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist with a big performance against a shaky Iowa secondary. I hardly expect a blowout like Ohio State's start-to-finish beating of Wisconsin a year ago, but I do think that the Hawkeyes will be chasing the Spartans for the majority of the game.
And if that turns out to be the case, there won't be a hotter team in the College Football Playoff than Michigan State. Maybe Dantonio was right—the Spartans could well be this year's version of the Buckeyes.
Prediction: Michigan State 45, Iowa 34
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
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