NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Assessing Playoff Picture Heading into Week 14
The college football regular season is done for most teams with only the conference title games remaining, but there is still a lot of unknown when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
Six of the top eight teams in the Associated Press poll will be competing for a conference championship Saturday. This will provide a lot of big wins for a few teams and damaging losses for others. At that point, the committee will once again be left deciding the value of each team's resume against each other to find the four best teams in the land.
While the latest CFP rankings won't come out until Tuesday night, here is a look at the most recent AP poll and a breakdown of what can and should happen based on results from the weekend.
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Oklahoma Is the Safest Team
This is a surprise considering Oklahoma was just No. 15 in the initial CFP poll, but it seems the squad has followed the path of Ohio State last year to overcome a bad early loss to reach the playoff.
Bob Stoops predicted this would be enough in a SportsCenter interview (via ESPN.com) a few weeks ago, noting how difficult the final path was for the Sooners. When asked if winning out would be enough to get a spot in the semifinals, he responded:
"I don't know how you couldn't. If you go on the road and beat the No. 6 team in the country, you beat the No. 11 team in the country [TCU] and Oklahoma State also on the road—the No. 4 team in the country—who else is doing that at the end of the year, or even through the whole year? ...
Look at whoever else has won, and what top teams have they beaten? If you're able to do that, then certainly you should be one of those teams.
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Oklahoma took care of business on the field with impressive road wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State as well as a narrow victory over TCU at home. Baker Mayfield has been impressive all year long, and he is utilizing the weapons around him such as Sterling Shepard and Samaje Perine to create an almost unstoppable offense.
Most importantly, though, the Sooners have completed their schedule with just the one loss and are essentially in the clubhouse, while the rest of the field still has to play. While losing to Texas is inexcusable, the committee has shown it cares much more about good wins than bad losses.
SEC and ACC Could Simplify Things
The top two in the rankings have been there for a while. Clemson and Alabama have each played tough schedules, and only the Crimson Tide have ended up with a single loss, which was a crazy early-season battle against Ole Miss.
While the SEC hasn't quite been as strong this season as it has in recent years, the Crimson Tide will have done more than enough to secure a spot in the semifinals with a win in the SEC title game over Florida. At the same time, Clemson will still be undefeated with a win over North Carolina in the ACC title game and will likely be the No. 1 overall seed.
The questions come for what happens if either of these teams loses.
Florida has two losses and has struggled down the stretch, averaging only 13.8 points in the last four games. It would take a dominant win over Alabama and some strong SEC bias for the Gators to even be considered for the playoffs.
On the other hand, North Carolina would have an argument at just one loss. Head coach Larry Fedora is certain the team will make the playoff with a win over Clemson, per Andrew Carter of the Charlotte Observer:
While a loss to South Carolina looks bad, it was also the very first game of the season. Meanwhile, the team has been perfect since, and a win on Saturday would give the Tar Heels the best victory of any potential playoff team. Although Clemson could still have an argument with one loss, both ACC teams would have to be legitimate considerations if there is an upset Saturday.
Big Ten Debate
Iowa (12-0) and Michigan State (11-1) will battle for a Big Ten title with the easiest explainable scenario: win and you're in.
Although nothing is guaranteed when a committee is involved, in all likelihood, whichever team wins this game will go on to the College Football Playoff. It will have the resume, the wins and the lack of losses to be worthy of a spot.
The question comes with what to do with the loser. A similar issue comes with whether Ohio State can sneak in past one of these teams. Joel Klatt of Fox Sports explained the problem:
If Michigan State loses, it will have two losses compared to the one for the Buckeyes. However, that one loss came at the hands of the Spartans at the Horseshoe. It would be strange to say Ohio State is better than Michigan State when the two teams decided on the field this was not the case, especially when the extra loss was for a conference championship.
It is a bit simpler comparing Ohio State to Iowa if Michigan State indeed wins Saturday. There would be two very good teams with only one loss to the Spartans, but the Buckeyes' latest blowout over Michigan would likely be the difference.
Although the Hawkeyes would claim it is unfair, they have a chance to remove themselves from the debate with a Big Ten title.
Wild Cards Still Alive?
It isn't easy to find paths for many other teams to the College Football Playoff. Stanford likely has the best shot with a convincing win over USC in the Pac-12 title game. The Cardinal would be 11-2 with wins over Notre Dame, USC and others. The losses to Oregon and Northwestern also don't look quite as bad.
The key will be finding a spot for this team in the playoffs.
One potential scenario would be an Alabama loss and dominant wins by Clemson and Iowa. This would likely make Clemson, Iowa and Oklahoma the only safe choices, while the final spot would be left for debate between a one-loss Ohio State and a bunch of two-loss teams.
In this scenario, teams such as Baylor, TCU or even Houston could get into the playoff discussion, especially if Stanford also loses, although any of these is unlikely. What we do know is the final week of college football is going to feature some excitement.
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