Is College Football Ready to Finally Embrace the Cinderella?
In small doses, college football treasures its underdogs. There’s nothing quite like watching a full-bodied favorite come undone at the hands of an underestimated, undeserving challenger.
These moments of chaos are celebrated in mass. They power our week-to-week DeLorean. But our interest in the underdog usually fades right then and there, once all fans have been cleared from field.
One more week? Sure, little guy, have a blast. Win that next game. Two more weeks? Why not, buddy. You earned it.
Anything beyond that, however, and euphoria seamlessly morphs into agitation. The little engine that could quickly becomes an annoyance. Once the College Football Playoff becomes a potential reality, the darling is no longer the darling—at least for those not comfortably underneath the rooting interest umbrella..
That leads me to the Iowa Hawkeyes, the selection committee’s No. 4 team in the latest College Football Playoff standings. This is indeed a brave new world.
With debate swirling, Iowa finds itself in a delightful position. If the Hawkeyes beat Nebraska and a team to be determined in the Big Ten Championship Game, they’re in the playoff. There will be no debate. There will be no second thoughts.
There will be outrage, certainly, but that won’t change a discomforting reality—not for all, but for many.
While college basketball seems to embrace these unlikely bracket voyages, this is different. In football, instead of celebrating this unlikely scenario, these teams are greeted with pitchforks. Instead of rallying to the weird, we dissect schedules and scream about the lack of Top 25 wins from the highest mountaintops.
Instead of appreciating something truly rare—and seeing Iowa check in at No. 4 during Thanksgiving week would most certainly qualify—most fight its very existence.
The assumption, of course, is that Iowa doesn’t belong. Perhaps there is some truth to that. If Iowa had Michigan State’s schedule, chances are it wouldn’t be in this spot. But saying this team doesn’t belong in the Top Four given what it has accomplished and what others have not, at this point, is a complete falsehood.
Still, many are impatiently tapping their foot, waiting for Iowa's carriage to turn into a pumpkin.
Let the regulars in. That’s how it’s always been.
Iowa still has much work to do. The Hawkeyes could most certainly lose to rested Nebraska on Friday. And even if they get past the Cornhuskers, Kirk Ferentz’s team will likely still be an underdog to Michigan State, Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
Winning the next two games will be no small task, even for a team that has showed a great deal of resiliency over the course of the year. But the opportunity is there. The situation, as alarming as it is to some, is very real.
And if push comes to shove and Iowa plays itself into college football’s most exclusive tournament, what will the reaction be? I suppose that depends.
We’re on the verge of finding out. Best prepare yourself now mentally and emotionally, just in case.
As for other thoughts on the latest College Football Playoff standings, let’s dive right in.
Questions Remain, But This Was a Wonderful Week For the Big 12
Oklahoma’s rise to No. 3 in the latest College Football Playoff standings was, without an ounce of doubt, the most noteworthy rise since the release show kicked into gear. It was only two spots, but it was so much more.
With one game remaining against Oklahoma State, the Sooners suddenly feel like they are on the verge of making the postseason with a win over their rival. A favorable situation is now a position of strength.
Win, and they’re (almost) in.
Despite the fact that Oklahoma nearly fell to TCU last week with starting quarterback Baker Mayfield out with an injury, it was not penalized. And that Texas loss? Well, that was a long time ago, friend.
“I think it's more a function of how Oklahoma has performed since that loss,” selection committee chairman Jeff Long said on ESPN. “They have performed at a high level since then, so they've overcome that loss with their play on the field and the success they've had and the wins they've accumulated, with now six wins over teams with .500 or better records.”
Baylor also enjoyed a boost this week, checking at No. 7 after taking down Oklahoma State in its own building. With two games remaining and a chance to win the Big 12 with an Oklahoma loss this weekend, the Bears are not out of it yet.
The path to the playoff isn’t as simple for the Bears as it is for Oklahoma. For starters, Baylor needs another team to lose and maybe a few more. But the Big 12, after so much debate, should be cautiously optimistic entering Week 13.
Up until this week, we docked the league for its lack of early scheduling. We pontificated that a lack of a championship game could once again doom the conference. This could still be the case, although things are coming together at just the right time.
Has the Selection Committee Cooled on Notre Dame?
On the other end of the optimism spectrum, I present Notre Dame—fresh off an ugly five-turnover, three-point victory over Boston College in Fenway Park.
After the selection committee showed the Irish plenty of love the last few weeks, leaving them comfortably in the No. 4 spot, Notre Dame fell to No. 6 this week. While there were bigger drops for victorious teams—looking at you, Florida—no drop was more significant.
With only one game remaining on its schedule, Brian Kelly’s squad suddenly doesn’t feel to have the stranglehold it once did. In moving Oklahoma and Michigan State above the Irish, the selection committee made a very clear statement whether it meant to or not.
Now, the good news for Notre Dame is that it has a chance to showcase its worth against Stanford this weekend. The bad news is that an already injury-riddled team will be without cornerback KeiVarae Russell and potentially without running back C.J. Prosise.
The worse news is that Notre Dame’s primary competition for a playoff spot, at least momentarily, will also have a chance to prove their worth against quality opponents.
All was not lost, but Tuesday night was not kind.
Does a Two-Loss Team Have a Shot at the Playoff?
Yes. Absolutely.
Even though there are only two weeks remaining, there's still a long way to go.
While it is unlikely that a two-loss team crashes the College Football Playoff, things can change quickly. Just look at the last few weeks. And with potential opportunities ahead, both No. 9 Stanford and No. 10 Michigan should still be considered threats to surge to the Top Four if things turn strange.
Stanford, of course, could significantly boost its resume with a win over Notre Dame. Losses from Iowa, Michigan State and Baylor this weekend wouldn’t hurt, either. While it’s unlikely that all three teams all fall, there are losable games on the docket for teams ranked higher than the Cardinal. A Pac-12 championship would also add a significant boost.
Michigan needs a bit more help. For starters, the Wolverines need to beat Ohio State and have Michigan State fall to Penn State this weekend. Without that, the plot ends. But if those two things happen—and they very well could happen—look out.
Sticking with the hypothetical, if Michigan were to beat unbeaten Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, that would push matters even further.
Although both teams should be viewed as dark horses to sneak into the Top Four, opportunities to impress exist. That's all they can ask for at this point. And if enough carnage does take place, these two are in a position to take advantage.
The Destiny Club
With two weekends of games left on the docket, the teams in control of their playoff fate are limited. You can count them on one hand and still give a thumbs up.
At the moment, Clemson, Alabama, Iowa and Michigan State are the only four that are locks to make the playoff if they win out.
While Michigan State is outside the Top Four presently, a win over Penn State and Iowa would be more than enough to change that. The Spartans’ resume, especially with Oregon’s sudden rise, has come together brilliantly.
As for everyone else, well, it’s complicated. And until that final conference championship is decided, it will remain complicated.
While Florida was teetering with this label entering Week 12, the Gators’ tumble to the No. 12 position, even with only one loss, takes them out of the conversation for now.
If the offense somehow kicks into gear and Florida finds a way to take down Florida State and Alabama in consecutive weeks, it will most certainly state a compelling case. But after barely inching past FAU, all talks of destiny have been put on hold.
Oklahoma at No. 3 is suddenly in an unexpected gray area. After Tuesday night, it feels like a win on Saturday might be enough to propel the Sooners into the playoff. And yet, I’m not comfortable making that proclamation just yet, even with a massive move in a critical week.
It’s getting close, though. Real close.
