College Football Playoff 2015: Committee Rankings Announced Entering Week 13

The race to the College Football Playoff is nearing the homestretch.

The selection committee released its poll Tuesday heading into Week 13, which will be the final rankings before the conference title game matchups are set. There is no longer plenty of time to play spoiler and climb up the rankings with quality wins. In fact, the scenarios for the four postseason positions are largely straightforward at this point.

Still, this is college football. It would be surprising if chaos didn’t happen, even with a limited amount of games remaining on the schedule.

With that in mind, here is a look at the latest poll as well as a conference-by-conference look at the race to the College Football Playoff.

ACC

The path to the playoff is clear for the undefeated Clemson Tigers. As long as they knock off South Carolina—which lost to The Citadel on Saturday—and then win the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina, they are in the playoff.

It is not quite as simple for North Carolina, especially after the Tar Heels needed overtime to get past Virginia Tech on Saturday and still have that ugly loss to South Carolina on their resume. If they beat North Carolina State in the season finale and Clemson in the conference title game, then the Tar Heels will have a solid case but may still need some upsets around the nation to get into the Top Four.

Perhaps the selection committee would look past the ugly loss at the start of the year, as David M. Hale of ESPN.com suggested: 

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If North Carolina wins out, its resume will include a conference title, 12 straight wins—with potentially seven coming against bowl-eligible teams—and a victory over the nation’s top team. That should fit pretty well with the committee’s priorities of selecting teams with big wins and conference championships that are peaking at year’s end.

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Big Ten

Michigan State’s road victory over Ohio State was the most important result of the Week 12 slate. It ended the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak and signaled at least a temporary changing of the guard in the Big Ten, with Michigan State and Iowa having the league’s best chances at the playoff.

It also means we will have a new national champion this season as long as the Spartans beat Penn State and clinch a spot in the conference title game.

If Michigan State wins out, it will have quality victories against Oregon (who is suddenly on a roll and climbing the rankings), Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Even with the ugly loss to Nebraska, the Spartans will likely be in the playoff in that scenario.

As for Iowa, as long as it still has a zero in the loss column, it will be in the thick of the playoff chase. The selection committee isn’t going to leave an undefeated power-conference champion out, especially if the Hawkeyes beat the same Spartans team that knocked off Ohio State in Columbus. 

Elsewhere, the winner of the Ohio State and Michigan rivalry clash needs Penn State to upset the Spartans to remain in the Big Ten championship picture. It is difficult to envision a team from the Big Ten (or any conference) making the playoff without a conference title, even if it is a squad loaded with future first-round picks such as the Buckeyes.

Big 12

Frankly, the Big 12 is something of a mess near the top since there is no conference championship game to provide clarity. Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all have one loss, while TCU is essentially out of the picture after losing its second game in three tries.

The Sooners and Cowboys play each other Saturday, which will create some separation. If Oklahoma wins, it will likely be considered the de facto Big 12 champion with head-to-head victories over Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU, even if there isn’t a title game at the end. However, if Oklahoma State wins, it would be in a battle with a Baylor team that already beat the Cowboys. 

Oklahoma State would likely need the Bears to lose to either TCU or Texas in their final two games—otherwise, Baylor’s head-to-head victory will prove critical.

Pac-12

The Pac-12 is arguably the strongest conference from top to bottom, especially with how vulnerable the SEC East teams looked Saturday (South Carolina lost to The Citadel, Florida needed overtime to beat Florida Atlantic and Georgia needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern).

Still, it looks like a long shot for the Pac-12 to reach the playoff after its teams beat each other up all year.

Stanford (9-2) has a golden opportunity to add a quality victory to its resume with Saturday’s showdown against Notre Dame, but it still needs to win the conference title and receive some help around the nation to remain in the discussion.

Head coach David Shaw is more focused on what he can control, per David Lombardi of ESPN.com: “Instead of spending my time trying to guess what’s going to happen, I’d rather just play our games and see what happens.” 

This may be a year when the Pac-12 focuses on beating quality opponents in its bowl games as a way of making its case as the nation's best conference.

SEC

Butch Dill/Associated Press

The SEC is straightforward, as long as Alabama takes care of business against Auburn and Florida handles Florida State. Those two teams would play each other in the conference title game, and the winner would only have one loss in that scenario and essentially clinch a playoff spot.

Even if it is much harder to find currently ranked opponents the Crimson Tide defeated this season than SEC fans would have you believe, it is hard to argue with the sheer number of solid teams on Alabama’s (and Florida’s) resume. 

It becomes trickier if Florida loses to Florida State, which is very possible considering how vulnerable the Gators recently looked against Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt, and manages to beat Alabama in the SEC title game. That would mean the conference champion had two losses and would need help from other leagues around the country, even with the SEC perception boost.

Notre Dame

Notre Dame (10-1) is still in striking distance of the Top Four heading into its final contest of the season, especially since it is against a quality opponent at Stanford. If the Fighting Irish lose, they can kiss their postseason hopes goodbye, but they need to cheer for chaos across the country in other games if they win.

If Clemson wins the ACC without a loss, Alabama or Florida wins the SEC with one loss, an undefeated Iowa or one-loss Michigan State wins the Big Ten and Oklahoma, Baylor or Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 with only one loss, Notre Dame would need to rely on the selection committee to reward it with a playoff spot without a conference title over another team that has one.

That looks far less likely now that Oklahoma jumped to No. 3 in Tuesday's rankings.

Let the politicking begin.