College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 11
Week 11 was the first since Week 6 that didn't feature an all-time great ending to a game.
But it was still among the best weeks of the season.
Even without a botched punt returned at the buzzer, a blocked kick returned at the buzzer, an eight-lateral kickoff return at the buzzer or a backward Hail Mary to force overtime, the Week 11 slate provided drama, intrigue and upsets—so many upsets—for teams in the College Football Playoff race.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Those upsets and the near-upsets that joined them will leave a lasting mark on the playoff discussion, beginning with next week's CFP rankings.
Here is a quick recap of what we learned.
Alabama Will Make the Playoff
Alabama has essentially made the playoff already.
It dominated Mississippi State in Starkville, clearing its biggest hurdle with a 31-6 road win, and now must beat just Charleston Southern, Auburn and Florida in the SEC Championship Game to reach the national semifinal.
Charleston Southern is an automatic win. Auburn is 2-5 in SEC play and just lost an ugly home game to Georgia. And Florida, ostensibly a threat to beat the Crimson Tide, has struggled to beat division cellar-dwellers Vanderbilt and South Carolina the past two weeks.
Anything can happen in a rivalry game, as Oklahoma's loss in Week 6 to Texas proved, but it's hard to see an anemic Auburn offense upsetting Alabama. The same goes for a Treon Harris-led Florida. The Crimson Tide are sitting pretty after running through Mississippi State.
Write them into the playoff, and write it in pen.
The Pac-12 Will Not Make the Playoff
Opposite Alabama, the Pac-12 has essentially missed the playoff already.
Its last two one-loss teams, Stanford and Utah, lost in Week 11 to Oregon and Arizona, respectively. Every Pac-12 team now has two losses. You can chalk that up to depth if you like, but no two-loss team stands a strong chance to make the playoff—not even a two-loss Pac-12 champion. That's doubly true after losing to unranked opponents.
Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports said what everyone was thinking:
What's happened to the Pac-12 is great news for the ACC. If Clemson and North Carolina win out, the victor of that ACC Championship Game will easily make the playoff. The Tar Heels blew out Miami 59-21 and are one the week's biggest winners.
Other beneficiaries include Notre Dame, Florida, Michigan State and all one-loss Big 12 teams. The Pac-12 demise does them wonders.
The Big 12 Might Make the Playoff
Speaking of one-loss Big 12 teams: There's a new one.
There was nearly another, too.
Oklahoma beat Baylor in Waco, Texas, dropping the Bears from the ranks of the unbeaten and onto the one-loss tier.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State survived a close call at Iowa State, coming back to avoid another calamity in Ames, and now trudges forward as the Big 12's lone unbeaten.
"There was not a doubt in anyone’s mind, you could see it in everybody’s eyes," part-time quarterback J.W. Walsh told reporters after the game. "Everyone bought in and everyone was upbeat the whole time. We just stuck with it, stayed the course, and we came out on top."
If it keeps coming out on top, the Big 12 will be fine. Undefeated Oklahoma State will make the playoff. No drama included.
But because of the Big 12's back-loaded schedule, things get messy if it the Cowboys drop a game. They still have to play OU and Baylor, while the Sooners and Bears still have to play the Cowboys and TCU. Here's a rough breakdown of the Big 12's remaining schedule:
| Baylor | 1 | at OKST | at TCU | vs. TEX |
| Oklahoma | 1 | vs. TCU | at OKST | – |
| Oklahoma State | 0 | vs. BAY | vs. OU | – |
| TCU | 1 | at OU | vs. BAY | – |
Based on what happened to the Pac-12, any one of these teams could make the playoff if it finishes with one loss. If Notre Dame loses to Stanford, there's no way a one-loss Big 12 champion gets left out.
If Notre Dame beats Stanford, however, things become complicated. The Pac-12 is essentially eliminated, but that doesn't mean the other four Power Five leagues all get a bid. The Independent Irish throw a wrench in that, and the Big 12 might draw the short straw.
The league is officially rooting for: (1) Stanford to beat Notre Dame, (2) Oklahoma State to finish undefeated or (3) some sort of chaos wherein Clemson or Ohio State and Iowa both lose.
Stack these odds around 50-50.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
