College Football Playoff Notebook: The Calm Before the Storm

This seems like the appropriate time to remind you that the College Football Playoff selection committee despises your favorite college football team. 

It’s the lack of quality wins, the lack of defense, the lack of offense, the turnover differential, the analytics it probably made up an hour ago on a cocktail napkin, the uniforms and the way the mascot carries himself or herself on the sidelines. All of it.

And so, when you settle into your favorite chair next Tuesday evening for the reveal of the selection committee’s first Top 25 of the year, with your cold beverage in one hand and your outrage cannon in the other, just know that this is personal. This can be the only explanation.

Well, that or the reality that picking a College Football Playoff at the beginning of November is an impossible task.

In fact, as the selection committee revs its engines on another season, keep in mind what next Tuesday evening’s broadcast is all about: money. Lots and lots of money. 

It’s about generating interest in college football’s still-new postseason, which it will most certainly do. It’s about selling ad space on ESPN, which it will most certainly do. It’s about generating just enough controversy to spike storylines that can carry us through Thanksgiving, all the way until early December, when the actual College Football Playoff is revealed.

Oh, it will do that.

With these simple truths fully accounted for, it is impossible not to be supercharged for the playoff reboot. This process—for all of its faults and the unknown—is still wildly exciting. Despite knowing the distance still to travel, each and every Top 25 released—starting on November 3—will be required viewing. It’s intoxicating.

Deep down, we know a ranking this far in advance means little to nothing—and yet we can’t stay away. Slowly but surely, the interest will amplify. November will somehow morph into December, and these money-grabs—I mean early rankings, sorry—will mean everything.

It will be heartbreaking for some. Infuriating for others. A tease for most. For a small number of fanbases six weeks from now, it will be pure joy. 

And it all starts next Tuesday. See you then.

As for other observations on the playoff, here is the final notebook before we do it live.

Arrow Pointing Up: Clemson

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In all of my years watching football, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more lopsided game between two conference foes than what unfolded between Clemson and Miami. That was demolition at its finest. It cost Al Golden his job.

For Clemson, this colossal drubbing was a statement of sorts. And with the selection committee readying its rankings, the Tigers showcased talent, depth and, above all, balance.

Granted, burying this Miami team in a pile of points isn’t exactly the ultimate resume boost. But the way they went about it was. This was a clinic. 

With the ACC’s strength suddenly in question—and Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday did not help matters—these style points won’t hurt in the eyes of the committee. If the Tigers keep this up, there will be zero questions about resume or whether they belong in college football’s top four regardless of what their primary competition does next.

Arrow Pointing Down: Utah

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The Utes’ College Football Playoff hopes did not die in Los Angeles. But, in falling 42-24 to USC, the caravan hit a flat tire. Well, maybe four flat tires. And the bumper fell off.

While the hype is not nearly as popular as it was a week ago, don’t jump off just yet.

The good news for Utah is that there is still ample time to repair matters. The other bit of good news is that Kyle Whittingham’s team is still a game clear of UCLA in the Pac-12 South. With games against Oregon State, Washington, Arizona, UCLA and Colorado remaining, Utah is poised to run the table until the Pac-12 Championship Game.

The problem now, however, is that the room for error is essentially erased. And perhaps the other unfair reality is Utah simply does not have the brand recognition to get the benefit of the doubt. I hate this part of this exercise, but it’s undeniable.

Updated College Football Playoff Projection

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You don't have to wait until next Tuesday to be outraged. Here is my updated College Football Playoff projection, here for all your outrage needs.

For the record, Stanford is giving me the most fits not being involved. If David Shaw's team finishes out without another loss, it will have a fascinating case in the current climate. Heck, given the chaos still to come, the Cardinal could be near the top by the time the dust clears. For now, however, Stanford is on the outside.

LSU is also very much in the mix as well, of course. A win over Alabama on the road in Week 10 would change everything.

Let the outrage commence.

1. Ohio State
2. Baylor
3. Clemson
4. Alabama

The Seth Russell Effect: Now What for Baylor?

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On Monday, Baylor announced that starting quarterback Seth Russell would miss the rest of the season. Russell suffered a neck injury Saturday, and it will require season-ending surgery.

“Seth exemplifies the spirit and will of our football team,” Baylor head coach Art Briles said of Russell in a release, “and through this our team will keep that spirit alive and well for him.”

Russell has been nothing short of brilliant. He leads the nation in passer efficiency and total touchdowns, and he is essentially at or near the top of every major QB statistic. 

The loss is enormous—the latest in a brutal year for injuries. On that note, we wish him a full recovery.

However, the show must go on for Baylor.

The conductor of this show will be none other than Jarrett Stidham, one of the nation’s elite quarterback recruits from the past class. Stidham has looked fabulous in his limited action for Baylor. Thus far, he has more touchdowns than incompletions. Briles has also been unwavering in his confidence of the frosh from the day he stepped foot on campus. 

(Translation: This is very unfortunate news to stomach, but not many teams have this kind of luxury as a contingency plan.)

In terms of the impact this has on the playoff, it’s significant. Although parallels will be drawn to J.T. Barrett’s injury last season, the circumstances between Ohio State and Baylor, at least momentarily, are drastically different. 

If Baylor wins out under Stidham—regardless of how he plays—it will be in the playoff. Plain and simple. That was not the case for the Buckeyes last year as they attempted to rebound under Cardale Jones. They needed style points in the worst way and found them in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Baylor doesn’t need style points. It just needs to win.

The Big 12’s back-loaded schedule will make for a wild November. After a bye, Baylor will play Top 15 teams Oklahoma, (at) Oklahoma State and (at) TCU. That’s a lot to ask out of a true freshman, although he will not be going it alone.

With so many weapons at his disposal, Baylor should still be considered a threat to win the whole thing. And although the first ranking means very little, it will be fascinating to see how the selection committee views Baylor the week after a bye.

So stay tuned. All hope is not lost by any means. But we have much to learn.

What Is the Value of Being Undefeated?

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Since the format of the College Football Playoff was first announced, I’ve had my eyes on one specific chaos scenario: How would the selection committee view an undefeated team with a far less impressive strength of schedule over a one-loss team that powered through a gauntlet of a season?

More significantly, would the committee have the public courage to omit a team without a loss for a program with a blemish?

It’s hard to say, really. Florida State, despite unimpressive results week after week last season, still managed to stay undefeated and was eventually deemed playoff-worthy. Although the committee moved the Seminoles up and down throughout the Top Four, I never felt FSU was at risk of missing the playoff (despite strong pushes from both Baylor and TCU).

If an undefeated Power Five program is left out of the playoff, just imagine the backlash.

There’s still a long way to go for this potential to be realized this season, although the potential is there. Alabama, Stanford and Notre Dame could be extremely appealing one-loss options if they close out the rest of the season without a loss.

The Irish and Cardinal will play later this year, meaning one of those programs will fall out, although the winning team will certainly enjoy a boost. And if the committee ultimately had to choose between a team like Iowa or Memphis—the best chaos candidates right now—versus a one-loss team with a better resume, would it actually leave the team with a perfect record out?

For Memphis, it seems likely. For Iowa, it is a bit more tricky.

Ultimately, as unfair as it may seem, it likely boils back to brand power. The logo on the helmet matters. An unbeaten Iowa and an unbeaten Ohio State—resumes being equal—are vastly different. And while we seem likely to avoid this quandary for another year given the dwindling number of candidates, it will enter the spotlight at some point. 

When it does, good luck.