Baylor Has the Most Difficult Remaining Path to the College Football Playoff

Knock on Baylor's strength of schedule all you want. It's fashionable and, honestly, not inaccurate to do so.

Through six games, the Bears' toughest test has been against Texas Tech in Arlington and Baylor won 63-35. They've played two true road games, but they were against SMU and Kansas. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Baylor's strength of schedule ranks 57th in college football. That's certainly not the worst among playoff contenders—which, for this argument, is narrowed to undefeated or one-loss teams—but nowhere near the best, either. 

So, go ahead and get the jokes in now. In fact, you have one more week since Baylor hosts Iowa State in Week 8. Just know that things are about to change for the Bears in a big way once November rolls around. For as easy as things have been for Baylor so far, it has the toughest road ahead to the College Football Playoff of anyone in the hunt. 

How is that possible? It starts with looking where Baylor has been before examining where it's going. 

As David Ubben of Sports on Earth tweets, the conundrum with Baylor is finding the accurate intersection of its strength of schedule and on-field performance: 

In all, Football Bowl Subdivision opponents who have played Baylor are a combined 12-19. That's not including Lamar of the Football Championship Subdivision ranks. How can anyone really know what a team is made of if it hasn't been tested yet? It's a fair question.

At the same time, it's not like the Bears have struggled to put away lesser teams. On average, Baylor is outscoring opponents by 39 points per game and that number doesn't deviate too much depending on whether the game is being played at home or on the road. Though home games have been higher scoring affairs overall, the difference in point differential between home and away games is about a field goal. 

In short, Baylor has taken care of its business. While it's frustrating to watch the Bears bowl over opponents week after week knowing full well they're talented enough to play with anyone, it has gotten them noticed. ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit called Baylor the best team in college football ahead of Week 7's game against West Virginia: 

With Baylor beating the Mountaineers 62-38, it certainly didn't do anything to hurt Herbstreit's statement. 

To be fair, a team's strength of schedule isn't directly indicative of how good it is; it only measures how hard it's been pushed. But, rest assured, Baylor will be more properly pushed in November. 

Below is Baylor's remaining schedule from Nov. 5 to the end of the season. Three of its five opponents—Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and TCU—not only have winning records, but are a combined 18-1. Baylor has to play the Cowboys and Frogs, the other two currently undefeated Big 12 teams, on the road as well. Of the playoff contenders, only TCU, Notre Dame, LSU and Memphis have as many road games against current Associated Press Top 25 teams as Baylor. 

Date	Opponent	Opponent's Current Record
Nov. 5	at Kansas State	3-3
Nov. 14	Oklahoma	5-1
Nov. 21	at Oklahoma State	6-0
Nov. 27	at TCU	7-0
Dec. 5	Texas	2-4

That, of course, isn't even counting the K-State game on the road. Though the Wildcats have taken a step back this year, and were just housed by Oklahoma 55-0 at home, the confines of Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium haven't been friendly to Big 12 foes—unless your name is Bob Stoops, that is. 

If you think that's bad, check out the numbers against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Baylor hasn't defeated the Cowboys on the road since 1939. The stat is somewhat misleading since 1) Baylor and Oklahoma State didn't begin meeting regularly until the Big 12 era, and 2) the Bears were awful before the arrival of head coach Art Briles. Still, it's one heck of a streak that, for one reason or another, has yet to be broken. 

Assuming Baylor can navigate through all of that unscathed, it has a short week leading into a road trip to TCU. If the Horned Frogs keep winning, this could be a top-five opponent for Baylor and easily the toughest game of the season. 

Things end on an easier note against Texas—a statement that still feels backward writing—but there's also the whole matter of the Big 12 lacking a championship game. Not having a 13th game last year hurt the Big 12 in the playoff battle. It's too soon to know whether history will repeat itself again this year, but it will be on the collective minds of everyone in Waco if a similar situation arises in early December. 

Whether you think Baylor is the best team in the country, the best team in the Big 12, or neither, it's undeniable the Bears have looked impressive. Earlier this month, Max Olson of ESPN.com wrote this was Briles' "best Baylor team yet" and he's entirely correct. 

But can this team do what no Baylor-led squad under Briles has done before? It seems assured Baylor must go undefeated to have a legitimate playoff argument. The month of November will provide more than enough tests to see if Baylor is truly worth the title as one of the four best teams in college football. Because, ultimately, that's the only thing that matters. 

Even then, the path isn't so clear. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.