5 Bold College Football Predictions for Week 7
If Week 7 follows the template of Weeks 1-6, it will feature numerous upsets, surprises and unexpected developments.
Most of those are hard (if not impossible) to predict, but we know they are going to happen because they take place each week. The hard part is targeting where.
Consider these predictions your guide to Week 7's weirdness. They are bold projections for what might, despite being unlikely, happen.
Sound off with your own bold projections in the comment section below.
Utah State Beats Boise State
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Utah State is on the upswing.
After two games below the 30th percentile and one game below the 50th, the Aggies have since played one game in the 82nd percentile and one game in the 90th, per Football Study Hall.
What's changed? Something big. The team replaced quarterback Chuckie Keeton—a senior who was great two years ago but whose body has clearly broken down—with backup Kent Myers, and the offense has taken off. Myers completed 18 of 25 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown in a 56-14 rout of Fresno State last weekend.
This pick has more to do with Utah State, which still has a strong defense and covered against Utah in Week 2, than it does with Boise State. The Broncos deserve to be ranked and are playing out of their minds. At the same time, their quarterback, Brett Rypien, is a true freshman, and true freshmen typically go through ebbs and flows.
Look out for the upset Friday.
Florida Holds Leonard Fournette Under 100 Rushing Yards
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Leonard Fournette is the best player in college football. This prediction does nothing to change that. But even the best player in college football, on occasion, suffers a slightly down game.
Fournette is due for one.
South Carolina did a good job defending Fournette last week, holding him to 71 yards on 19 of his 20 carries. The problem was that Fournette rushed for a backbreaking 87-yard touchdown with that other carry, so he finished with more than 150 yards.
However, Florida has a defense that can shut Fournette down for real. The Gators rank No. 22 in the country in run defense S&P+ and No. 15 in run defense success rate, per Football Study Hall. They do give up big plays (No. 99 in Isolated Point Per Play), but if they avoid that for one game, they can hold Fournette under 100 yards.
We did say these were bold predictions.
USC Takes Notre Dame to the Wire
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The biggest unknown of the week is how USC will play at Notre Dame.
Will the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian motivate the Trojans? Will it deflate them? How will they respond to such turmoil?
Here's one vote saying they come out with something to prove. Interim head coach Clay Helton, while not a front-runner to land the job permanently, is a stabilizing force in the locker room and someone the players respect. After former interim head coach Ed Orgeron left two seasons ago, Helton coached USC to a big Las Vegas Bowl win over Derek Carr's Fresno State Bulldogs.
Helton wrote a letter to USC's fanbase this week compelling them to stay supportive. "It is a unique honor to lead this program," he wrote, "and we are very fortunate to have a group of first-class student-athletes wearing cardinal and gold."
Those first-class student-athletes match the talent level of Notre Dame's roster. USC has long played up to great competition, the same way it plays down to average competition, so one week after a home loss to Washington, it wouldn't be a shock if the Trojans took Notre Dame to the wire.
It wouldn't be a shock if they won in South Bend, either.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Clemson and Florida State Both Score Under 20 Points
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Clemson and Florida State are the class of the ACC and appear, for the umpteenth consecutive year, to be on a collision course where the winner of their meeting will decide the winner of the conference at-large.
This week won't necessarily change that, but it will raise some eyebrows. Despite both teams playing at home, there's a good chance both struggle to score points. The Tigers are hosting Boston College while the 'Noles are hosting Louisville, and both defenses match up well.
Boston College, for example, held Florida State to seven offensive points in Week 3. Its defense ranks No. 3 in the country, per the S&P+ ratings. It can shut down a Clemson offense that is due for a letdown after a big win over Georgia Tech.
Louisville, meanwhile, ranks No. 13 in defensive S&P+, which doesn't bode well for the Seminoles. Running back Dalvin Cook has been awesome, but the passing game has taken time to click. Louisville's front seven can hold strong and force Everett Golson to beat them.
He will, the same way Deshaun Watson will beat Boston College, but it won't be pretty in both cases. Get ready for some ugliness from the ACC favorites.
Memphis Beats Ole Miss
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You haven't heard much about it, but Ole Miss is playing a road game against an undefeated team this weekend.
More than just undefeated, Memphis is coming off a 10-3 season in which it hung close against the Rebels in Oxford. Justin Fuente's team trailed 7-3 after three quarters before giving way down the stretch.
This game is in the Liberty Bowl, which plays to the Tigers' advantage. Their defense has taken a big step back from last year, but their offense, led by 6'7" quarterback and sneaky NFL prospect Paxton Lynch, ranks No. 16 in the country in the S&P+ ratings.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has ample motivation to look ahead. It gets No. 9 Texas A&M next weekend. It's playing a "lowly" AAC team. It can bring a C effort and still get away with a victory.
Or at least that's how the thinking goes.
It's just not the actual case.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
