6 Bold Predictions for 2016 College Football Recruiting Class
The 2016 college football recruiting trail reaches its conclusion Feb. 3, when national signing day developments seal the fate for programs' futures. Now four months shy of the annual event, this cycle is beginning to enter its most crucial stretch.
Official visits throughout the season and into the winter will dramatically alter the recruiting landscape that currently lies before us. Decommitments, last-minute campus trips and signing-day surprises are simply a part of the process, as verbal pledges hang in the balance until letters of intent are delivered.
We've come to expect craziness on and off the field as autumn progresses, forcing coaching staffs to juggle duties as game managers and recruiters. Some squads are set to flourish in early February, while others appear to be trending in the wrong direction.
Let's take a glimpse ahead, projecting how some of the country's most compelling storylines will develop.
Michigan Will Challenge for Big Ten's Top-Ranked Class
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Ohio State seems awfully comfortable sitting atop national composite recruiting rankings. The Buckeyes entered the season with a No. 1 class, and that remains the same as a highly publicized national title repeat attempt continues.
Plenty of folks have clamored for the first matchup between Ohio State—coached by Urban Meyer—and Michigan since former Wolverines quarterback Jim Harbaugh bolted from the NFL to Ann Arbor. That showdown takes center stage in late November, but the iconic coaches have been battling since the day Michigan hired Harbaugh as head coach.
These intense rivals carry a combined total of 24 commitments in the 2016 class who warrant a 4-star rating or better. The Buckeyes hold an edge now bolstered by late-summer pledges from 5-star defensive lineman Nick Bosa and in-state tight end Luke Farrell.
Ohio State built so much of its class during early stages of this cycle, and you wonder whether key commits could grow antsy enough to explore alternative options. Michigan's journey toward signing day has been much different, as it took Harbaugh about three months to build 2016 recruiting momentum.
Elite 11 finalist Brandon Peters and local running back standout Matthew Falcon helped turn the tide in April, while ensuing commitments from guys like Wisconsin offensive tackle Ben Bredeson, Indianapolis athlete Chris Evans and New Jersey wide receiver Ahmir Mitchell pushed Michigan's class to ninth overall entering October.
Given the program's positive recruiting vibes and Harbaugh's hot start, expect the Wolverines to close the gap on Ohio State even further. Michigan looks like a main contender for No. 1 overall prospect Rashan Gary, top-rated offensive guard Terrance Davis and 5-star tight end Isaac Nauta.
Former No. 1 Miami Hurricanes Class Will Finish Outside Top 20
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If you think the 2016 recruiting cycle's crystal ball is murky now, look back to last winter, when the Miami Hurricanes held down a No. 1 class ranking. Despite speculation about the long-term future of head coach Al Golden, the program assembled an expansive group of prospects early, crossing the 20-commitment threshold earlier than any team.
Eventually, other classes caught up in terms of volume and surpassed Miami based on overall talent value. The Hurricanes faded from the top slot, the top five and eventually the top 10 altogether and currently sit at 11th in national composite rankings.
If on-field expectations elevated after a 3-0 start, they plummeted when Miami opened October with an 11-point loss to Cincinnati. Matchups against Florida State and Clemson await in coming weeks, and disheartening defeats could essentially seal Golden's fate in Coral Gables.
The Seminoles remain a national-recruiting powerhouse, while Florida is arguably the strongest its been in years. Needless to say, competition for top Sunshine State prospects is pretty stiff, and uncertainty at the most paramount position for a program is difficult to overcome.
Miami is now 12 years removed from its most recent outright conference title—claimed in the now-defunct Big East—and recruiting won't get any easier as past greatness fades further into the rearview mirror. The Hurricanes will sign a significant portion of exceptional athletes in this class, but expect a steady slide in class rankings unless a drastic rebound occurs soon.
Shea Patterson Will Prove to Be Nation's Most Valuable Player-Recruiter
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Sometimes a star quarterback can be just as valuable off the field when it comes to building a quality recruiting class. Ole Miss commit Shea Patterson, a 5-star prospect who claimed Elite 11 MVP honors this summer, is a pivotal part of the Rebels' latest push with premier prospects.
"We're doing everything we can to put together a group that can win a lot of games together," Patterson told Bleacher Report in September. "I'm doing my part, and so are other recruits."
An emotional victory over Alabama may have been somewhat offset by a four-score loss at Florida, but Ole Miss is making moves with many immediate-impact prospects. A pair of them—4-star wide receiver Drake Davis and No. 1 overall tight end recruit Isaac Nauta—plays alongside Patterson at IMG Academy in Florida.
Patterson accompanied Davis to Oxford earlier this season, while he plans to attend the Oct. 24 game against Texas A&M alongside Nauta.
"We have excellent chemistry on the field, so obviously if I do go to Ole Miss, that would benefit me," Nauta told Bleacher Report. "Shea is a great quarterback, and we've definitely developed a good relationship playing together. He's in my ear every day with something about Ole Miss."
Patterson is an outstanding catalyst for 2016 Rebels recruiting efforts and aims to arrive on campus surrounded by an equally impressive supporting cast. His presence has specifically enticed dominant Louisiana running back Devin White and top-rated Texas wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland, while 5-star offensive tackle Greg Little also remains in play.
Florida Will Finish with a Top-10 Recruiting Class
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First-year Florida head coach Jim McElwain and a motivated staff finished the 2015 recruiting cycle with a flurry. The Gators' class, rated 66th overall in late January, rose to 21st overall in composite class rankings after a slew of late commitments headlined by 5-star linemen Martez Ivey and CeCe Jefferson.
Expect even greater results for the Gators this upcoming signing day. Florida, fueled by a collection of assistants that includes lauded defensive coordinator Geoff Collins and former Miami head coach Randy Shannon, is gaining momentum with several standouts.
Top-ranked outside linebacker Lyndell "Mack" Wilson named Florida his leader last week (h/t B/R's Damon Sayles), while 5-star wide receiver Nate Craig-Myers seems to be trending toward Gainesville, where his brother—cornerback Jayvaughn Myers—plans to play after an August commitment.
“I just feel like [McElwain] is going to take this program in the right direction," Craig-Myers told Bleacher Report's Sanjay Kirpalani. "He’s a great guy. He’s a very down-to-earth person, and I like that about him.”
Florida is favored to land 4-star in-state wide receiver Freddie Swain on Friday, Oct. 9, by 77 percent of experts' predictions in his 247Sports Crystal Ball. His outlook toward the Gators is impacted by the success of young offensive players during a 5-0 start.
“They showed they will throw the ball. They aren’t scared to do that,” Swain told Luke Stampini of 247Sports after attending Florida's victory over Tennessee. “Let it rip, and they finally connected to [Antonio] Callaway at the end and he brought it home.”
Florida also looks likely to further solidify its defensive front, holding steady with elite linemen Shavar Manuel, Dexter Lawrence and Antonneous Clayton.
Texas Will Fail to Sign a Top-3 Class in Its Own State
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Times are tough at Texas, as the Longhorns have lost six straight games against Power Five opponents, and doubt is mounting in the direction of a relatively new coaching regime.
Texas registered nine straight double-digit-win seasons between 2001-2009, but it's an era that may feel foreign to a new generation of Lone Star State recruits. Since class-of-2016 recruits entered high school, the team is just 24-20 with an Alamo Bowl victory.
Despite capping his first Longhorns campaign with a pair of blowout losses to TCU and Arkansas, head coach Charlie Strong rallied to sign the nation's No. 9 overall class in 2015 composite rankings. Texas is already relying on several of those recruits as true freshmen, and they're certainly going through growing pains as a group.
The Longhorns must continue to replenish a roster that's still searching for its identity. Prolific in-state wide receiver Tren'Davian Dickson and Elite 11 quarterback finalist Shane Buechele headline a crop of 2016 pledges that features just four players who carry a composite rating greater than three stars.
Dickson is the lone member of this class who ranks among the state's top 20 overall recruits, per composite ratings. As a result, Texas currently sits 51st overall in 2016 recruiting rankings, staring up at Texas A&M (16th), TCU (17th), Baylor (21st), Houston (35th) and Texas Tech (39th).
Some targets, like 4-star defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, are keeping the faith.
"They're just young, and with youth comes first-time experiences," he told Bleacher Report's Damon Sayles. "I feel that over the course of this season, things will change tenfold. Next year will be a different story for Texas."
Still, considering the squad's start and lack of progress with elite 2016 talent, it's difficult to see Texas leapfrogging several in-state counterparts. TCU, Baylor and Texas A&M will be especially difficult to overcome, while Houston claims a commitment from arguably the state's top player in defensive lineman Ed Oliver.
LSU Will End Alabama's Reign Atop SEC Recruiting Rankings
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Alabama has enjoyed an unprecedented recruiting run, claiming five straight No. 1 recruiting classes in national composite rankings. The Crimson Tide overcame tremendous talent hauls at rival SEC universities along the way, but a new era may be near.
Head coach Nick Saban, holding 10 4-star commitments, is hard-pressed to compete with an LSU class headlined by 5-star defensive backs Eric Monroe and Saivion Smith. The Tigers, now 4-0 with victories over Auburn and Mississippi State, are also experiencing a positive publicity spike thanks to early Heisman Trophy hype for scintillating sophomore running back Leonard Fournette.
"Coach Miles is a great guy and he does an outstanding job recruiting players who can help the team compete for championships," 4-star quarterback commit Feleipe Franks told Bleacher Report during Elite 11 finals.
Former Alabama linebackers coach Kevin Steele and former Ole Miss head coach Ed Orgeron help head coach Les Miles hunt for coveted prospects. They joined the staff last offseason along with longtime Georgia wide receivers coach Tony Ball.
"They have the right staff to get it done in recruiting," said regional recruiting reporter Andrew Lopez of the Times-Picayune. "Those new additions, plus [running backs coach/recruiting coordinator] Frank Wilson, really give LSU an edge. It's almost unfair to have all those guys on one staff."
That dynamic combination of coaches and a promising opening month of on-field results create confidence LSU could be the team to finally knock Alabama off the conference's top recruiting perch. The dagger could ultimately come from 5-star Crimson Tide legacy Ben Davis, whose father Wayne is Alabama's all-time tackles leader.
The nation's top-rated inside linebacker is heavily considering LSU, along with fellow 5-star defenders Rashard Lawrence and Lyndell "Mack" Wilson.
"I really like Baton Rouge. I went down there one time and fell in love with it," Davis told Bleacher Report. "LSU would probably be one of my top three choices if I had to decide today."
The Tigers also remain in the mix for several top-tier uncommitted prospects from Louisiana, including cornerback Kristian Fulton, running back Devin White and offensive lineman Willie Allen.
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