Why Texas A&M vs. Florida Is Now Most Likely SEC Championship Game
In August, if you would have told somebody that the most likely matchup in the 2015 SEC Championship Game is Texas A&M vs. Florida, people would have told you that you were crazy.
You don't know football.
You're clearly a fan of either the Aggies or the Gators (or both).
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You need to do a little more research.
Yet here we are five weeks into the season, with that being the most likely matchup for the annual event held the first week of December at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
| 1. Florida | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 2. Georgia | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| 3. Kentucky | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| 4. Missouri | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| T5. Tennessee | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| T5. Vanderbilt | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| 7. South Carolina | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| T1. Texas A&M | 2-0 | 5-0 |
| T1. LSU | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 3. Ole Miss | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| T4. Alabama | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| T4. Arkansas | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| 6. Mississippi State | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| 7. Auburn | 0-2 | 3-2 |
For Florida, the reason is simple. It's the most complete team in the SEC East, and there isn't a close second.
The Gators are giving up just 304.2 yards per game, are giving up just 16.6 points per game (third in the conference), have a front seven that can shut down the run and one of the best secondaries in college football.
The surprise for the Gators this year—and what makes them so dangerous—is that all of the offseason questions we had about the offense have been answered.
Quarterback Will Grier has thrown 10 touchdowns and only three picks, proved that he can come up big in key spots in the dramatic 28-27 fourth-quarter comeback win over Tennessee in Week 4 and tore up Ole Miss' defense—which is loaded with talent—in a 38-10 home win in Week 5.
He's been the beneficiary a lot of help too.
Once a sore spot, the Gator offensive line dominated the line of scrimmage against the Rebels. Think about that for a second. It wasn't a directional Sun Belt school or an FCS foe, this was Ole Miss. Whether you think the Rebels as a team are overrated as a whole, their front seven led by defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche certainly is not.
"Obviously, the influx of the new guys has been fantastic. Let's not downplay the fact [tackle] Mason Halter's been doing a great job at a lot of different spots," head coach Jim McElwain said, according to quotes emailed by Florida. "Getting [guard] Trip [Thurman] back has been great. Obviously, the young guys have been doing a pretty darn good job in there. I would say the biggest thing I see there is they're starting to understand the value of communication."
Plus the wide receiver trio of Demarcus Robinson, Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway has brought much-needed balance to the Gators.
"I really think it's a credit to that position group that they're actually investing into how you go about your work schedule," said McElwain. "How you are held accountable to be in the right spot. When you're in the right spot something good usually happens. I like that. I think that's good. What I also, I think, shows is that the quarterback's not like, 'hey, I gotta throw it to this guy,' it's 'let me go through my action and reaction and number three.'"
With a win over Tennessee on its resume and a front seven that's capable of at least slowing down Georgia's Nick Chubb and LSU star Leonard Fournette in their cross-division matchup, Florida is going to be tough to beat in the East.
Out West, there are no complete teams.
LSU's passing offense (95.5 yards per game) is ranked 124th out of 128 FBS teams—three spots behind Georgia Tech, a team that runs the triple option. Ole Miss has a loss and hasn't been able to run between the tackles like it needs to. Alabama has a loss, and we don't know if quarterback Jake Coker can match a team score for score if the Crimson Tide get into a shootout.
Plus, the emergence of running back Tra Carson (430 yards and four touchdowns) coupled with new offensive line coach/running game coordinator Dave Christensen's increased focus on the power rushing attack has given the offense much-needed balance.
The Aggies draw LSU at the end of the year in Baton Rouge, which isn't ideal. But the Tigers will be coming off of a big road trip to Ole Miss, while Texas A&M will have Vanderbilt in Nashville on the next-to-last weekend of the season.
The toughest test for Texas A&M might be against Alabama. But that will be the seventh game in as many weeks for the Crimson Tide, while Texas A&M has a bye week this week leading up to the showdown next weekend in College Station.
Plus, we now know that if the Aggies force their style of football on an opponent, defensive ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall can and will tee off on opposing quarterbacks. Simply put, its high-octane offense puts Texas A&M's defense in prime position for success.
Is Texas A&M perfect?
Of course not.
The run defense ranks next-to-last in the SEC (182.60 yards per game), but that puts it at the back end of a group of five teams that are separated by just 12 rushing yards per game.
But Ole Miss and Alabama have losses, and it's hard to trust LSU at this point due to its woeful passing attack.
Texas A&M vs. Florida in Atlanta. Write it down (in pencil), because it's the most likely SEC Championship Game matchup through the first five weeks of the season.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Statistics are courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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