Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender
College Football Playoff contenders are like stocks: Buy when they're low and rising, sell when they've peaked.
Four weeks of games have vaulted some teams up the board and dropped others down lower than usual, but only some of that movement will last. Last year's post-Week 4 Associated Press rankings had Oklahoma at No. 4, Auburn at No. 5, Texas A&M at No. 6…Ohio State at No. 22 and TCU at No. 29.
See how much can change after September?
On that note, let's take stock of the current AP Top 10. We'll buy and sell each team based on their chances of winning it all, accounting for factors such as talent, performance, injuries, coaching and schedule.
The Preseason Verdict refers to my opinion of each team before Week 1. The Current Verdict refers to my opinion of each team post-Week 4. The direction it has changed between Strong Sell, Moderate Sell, Reluctant Sell, Reluctant Buy, Moderate Buy and Strong Buy reflects how the first month has shaped those opinions.
Sound off below and let me know where you disagree!
10. Utah
1 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Strong Sell
In its current form, Utah can contend for a playoff spot. It left no doubt about its upside in a 62-20 win at Oregon.
My problem with the Utes is that I doubt how long that current form holds—specifically with regard to quarterback Travis Wilson.
Wilson is playing out of his mind and has long been one of my pet projects; I touted him before last season as the "Blake Bortles of 2014." But injuries have derailed every year of his career, and the concussion issues he dealt with last offseason, which briefly cast his football career in doubt, threaten to end his season on any given down.
If I was higher on Utah's backup, Oklahoma transfer Kendal Thompson, I would buy hard on the Utes regardless. But Thompson is a pure running quarterback with a scattershot arm who makes Utah's offense simple and one-dimensional.
That combined with Wilson's injury history—he already missed most of the Utah State game in Week 2—makes me willing to sell on Utah. Their stock is high and deserves to be, but I worry how long it can last.
Current Verdict: Reluctant Sell
9. LSU
2 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Sell
LSU will go as far as running back Leonard Fournette and its defense can drag it.
On one hand, that's a good thing. Few entities in college football can drag a team as far as Fournette and LSU's defense.
But on the other hand, that's a bad thing. At some point most teams need a passing game, or at least something resembling one. And despite a roster stocked with blue-chip wide receivers, quarterback Brandon Harris has not been able (or even asked) to create one.
Still, it's hard to sell the Tigers with confidence. Road games at Ole Miss and Alabama loom large, but splitting those two and running the table in Baton Rouge would make them a frisky playoff candidate.
Three teams have made Auburn look bad this season, but only LSU has made it look terrible.
Current Verdict: Reluctant Buy
8. Georgia
3 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Sell
Greyson Lambert is what LSU needs Brandon Harris to be.
The Virginia transfer has played his "game manager" role to near-perfection, ranking No. 3 in the country in QB rating (200.98) and No. 2 in completion percentage (76.5) after four weeks.
Is he a superstar? Heck no. But Georgia doesn't need him to be. All it needs him to be is Greg McElroy—someone who can hand the ball to an All-American running back (Nick Chubb), demand enough respect that safeties stay out of the box and not throw backbreaking interceptions.
Prior to the season, I didn't think Lambert could do that. I still need to see more, but after four weeks he has started to change my mind. If he's the quarterback he looks like on paper, this team has everything it needs to romp through the SEC East and make a playoff run.
We'll learn more when Georgia hosts Alabama on Saturday.
Current Verdict: Moderate Buy
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. UCLA
4 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Buy
Week 4 should have been great for UCLA's stock. It boatraced Arizona in the featured College GameDay game, taking a 42-14 lead into halftime before coasting to a 56-30 win.
But what happened outside Tucson made things complicated. The Bruins' two supposedly impressive nonconference wins over Virginia and BYU were made to look a lot worse in hindsight. Virginia lost 56-14 on its home field to Boise State, and BYU gained 105 yards in a 31-0 loss at Michigan.
Despite how good their resume looks on paper, the Bruins are still a mild unknown. They've lost three of their five best defensive players—linebacker Myles Jack, defensive end Eddie Vanderdoes and cornerback Fabian Moreau—to season-ending injuries, and true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, while incredible, is due for a few more down games like the one he played against BYU.
If everything broke right, UCLA could have been a strong national title contender. But building around a true freshman quarterback requires luck in other places. Based on what the Bruins have lost on defense, I'm comfortable saying this isn't their lucky year.
Current Verdict: Reluctant Sell
6. Notre Dame
5 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Sell
Notre Dame has suffered injury luck similar to that of UCLA, but its prognosis moving forward looks better.
The Irish have lost a greater quantity of players than the Bruins, chief among them quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston, but they've escaped the crucial injury that ruins their impressive form.
In other words: Where UCLA has lost three of its five best defenders, Notre Dame still has linebacker Jaylon Smith, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, cornerback KeiVarae Russell, defensive tackle Sheldon Day, wide receiver Will Fuller and running back C.J. Prosise playing out of their minds. It hasn't lost the Jenga piece, as NFL Network's Dave Dameshek calls it, that makes the tower topple to the ground.
"I think it's more about where the program is," head coach Brian Kelly told reporters after beating Georgia Tech in Week 3. "You can sustain some injuries, some key injuries, and still play at a high level."
High level might be an understatement.
The Irish have outplayed their No. 6 ranking.
Current Verdict: Moderate Buy
5. Baylor
6 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy
I chose Baylor to win the Big 12 and make the playoff before the season because I thought the offense would hum along as usual and the defense would take a small step forward.
So far, only one of those things has come true. The offense has hummed along as usual—albeit through SMU, Lamar and Rice—but the defense has been as leaky as ever. The Bears allowed 31 points against Lamar, an FCS team, which says all you need to know.
The good news: Things can still get better. Shawn Oakman and Orion Stewart missed the SMU game with suspensions, and the defense improved against Rice in Week 4. This unit still looks decent on paper, especially along the defensive line, where Oakman and Andrew Billings should both make the All-Big 12 first team.
The bad news: How many national title contenders have ever allowed 31 points to Lamar? I know it's just an early-season scrimmage, for all intents and purposes, but it raises red flags before the start of Big 12 play. TCU, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are offensive juggernauts, and West Virginia and even (gulp) Texas might be getting there.
Keep a close eye on Baylor's defense against Texas Tech this weekend.
Current Verdict: Moderate Buy
4. TCU
7 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Buy
TCU might have the best quarterback (Trevone Boykin), the best receiver (Josh Doctson) and the best all-around offense in college football. That makes it a threat to beat anybody.
The defense, however, is more than just a minor concern. Prior to the season, the Horned Frogs lost defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas to retirement, all five defenders who made an All-Big 12 team last season (Paul Dawson, Chris Hackett, Chucky Hunter, Sam Carter and Kevin White), plus another 100-tackle linebacker (Marcus Mallet).
They needed every returning defender to stay healthy, step up and pull more weight to accommodate those losses. Instead they've had their depth chart ravaged by injuries and suspensions—losing more players than any unit previously mentioned on this list—struggled to stop SMU and came one miracle play short of falling at Texas Tech.
That might have been delaying the inevitable.
Current Verdict: Moderate Sell
3. Ole Miss
8 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Moderate Sell
No team has changed my preseason opinion for the better more than Ole Miss.
My biggest source of skepticism was quarterback Chad "Swag" Kelly, but in hindsight I may have held his off-field reputation against him. He was a dumb kid who made dumb mistakes, and I let that cloud my football judgment. His performance so far has taught me a lesson.
Kelly completed 18 of 33 passes for 341 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a thorough road upset of Alabama, and although those numbers were helped by a pair of crazy long touchdowns, they are still hard to ignore. The zero interceptions stand out after Bo Wallace weighed Ole Miss down with turnovers the past three seasons.
To think this offense ranks No. 8 in the country in offensive S&P+, per Football Outsiders, without All-American left tackle Laremy Tunsil is incredible. If Tunsil escapes NCAA limbo and returns during SEC play, there's no telling how good Ole Miss might become.
"Tunsil is the centerpiece of that team," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee said this offseason. "He's the most important player on that team. He's the most indispensable player on that team. Without him, Ole Miss would not be a serious SEC contender."
Turns out we gave the Rebs too little credit.
Current Verdict: Moderate Buy
2. Michigan State
9 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Reluctant Buy
Michigan State is wildly overranked.
That doesn't mean it's not a contender; it's just not the No. 2 team in the country.
Sparty rose this high after beating Oregon 31-28 on its home field. But the No. 10 team on this list, Utah, led Oregon 62-13 after 50 minutes on the road last weekend, and MSU's other three wins—37-24 over Western Michigan, 35-21 over Air Force, 30-10 over Central Michigan—have also made it look more like a Top 20 team than a Top Two team.
An already thin defense lost linebacker Ed Davis in fall camp and cornerback Vayante Copeland after Week 3, and both losses loom large before Big Ten play. There's no word on All-American left tackle Jack Conklin, who left last week's game against Central Michigan, but this offense can't afford for him to miss any serious time.
Sparty has earned the benefit of the doubt and has a roster filled with players who know how to win. Even when they're outplayed for most of the game (see last year's Cotton Bowl), they make big plays in big moments. That makes them a threat to beat anybody—even Ohio State in Columbus.
You just won't find me running to bet on it.
Current Verdict: Reluctant Sell
1. Ohio State
10 of 10
Preseason Verdict: Strong Buy
Ohio State's early struggles have been mildly overblown. It hasn't been the man-among-boys we expected, but it's still posted three games above the 90th percentile, per SB Nation's Bill Connelly.
As a worst-case scenario, Ohio State is this year's Florida State: a team overrated and bogged down by winning the previous national title and the weight of expectations accrued in the offseason. But as far as worst-case scenarios go, the 2014 Seminoles, who started 13-0, won the ACC and made the Rose Bowl, are a good one.
Florida State was overrated, but it was technically still a championship contender.
The Buckeyes are loaded and experienced at every position and still have Urban Meyer on the sideline. The quarterback battle has lasted too long and the loss of offensive coordinator Tom Herman was bigger than anyone realized, and at some point those issues must be addressed, but this is still the team to beat until it loses.
Current Verdict: Strong Buy
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
