
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers Complete Game Preview
It’s the marquee event of Week 1 of the college football season as even ESPN’s College GameDay pregame show will be on hand at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
No. 3 Alabama will be facing the first of seven opponents ranked in the preseason Associated Press Poll, while No. 20 Wisconsin doesn’t have any others on its schedule.
History isn’t necessarily on the side of the Badgers, who last year lost a close season opener to No. 13 LSU in the AdvoCare Texas Kickoff in Houston, 28-24, and will face the Tigers again to open the 2016 season at Lambeau Field.
However it did end the 2014-15 season with a 34-31 overtime victory over Auburn in the Outback Bowl, as running back Melvin Gordon capped his career with 251 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The two programs have faced each other only once, in 1928. Wisconsin won at home, 15-0. Since then the Badgers are 0-4-1 in regular season games against the Southeastern Conference. Even with the Auburn win it is 3-7 against the league in bowl games.
Here’s everything you need to know:
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. CT
Place: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC
Spread: Alabama 10½, according to OddsShark.com.
Alabama Keys to Victory
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Pound the ball
Junior Derrick Henry has taken over as Alabama’s primary ball-carrier and will be looking to make a statement against a defense that has held six of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards.
The real question may be the players behind him as senior Kenyan Drake, who was limited by a hamstring injury during training camp, will line up in a variety of different places and Damien Harris is a true freshman. Meanwhile, one of Wisconsin’s inside linebackers, T.J. Edwards, is a redshirt freshman, while the backups are freshman Chris Orr and redshirt freshman Ryan Connelly, a former walk-on.
Win third downs
How many times did opponents make a big play on third down to keep a drive alive last season? Way too many for Alabama’s liking. Statistically the Crimson Tide ranked 41st in the nation in third-down defense (82 of 217 opportunities, or 37.8 percent). Ball control could be a huge factor in this game, and Alabama’s defense needs to keep Wisconsin from sustaining the kind of long drives that will really take a toll in the second half.
Do enough with the passing game
No one is expecting Alabama to suddenly have another Amari Cooper, but if wide receiver ArDarius Stewart, tight end O.J. Howard and Drake do enough as receivers the Badgers won’t be able to stay focused on stopping the run. It’ll be interesting to see what offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin comes up with early on to try and get the Badgers on their heels.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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The offensive line has to play like a veteran unit
Due to a string of injuries, the line was a jumbled mess during training camp, with three players set to make their first starts against Alabama’s formidable front seven. Senior left tackle Tyler Marz and junior center Dan Voltz are the two staples coaches have built around. Junior Walker Williams will get the start at right guard, with sophomore Hayden Biegel at right tackle and redshirt freshman Michael Dieter at left guard. All will be tested.
It must have the quarterback who makes the fewest mistakes
Joel Stave is 21-7 as a starting quarterback, but he went 8-1 during Wisconsin’s final nine games of 2014. The loss was 59-0 to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, which the Badgers were actually favored to win. It was one of three times Stave had three passes intercepted, Auburn and Northwestern being the other opponents. Keep an eye on senior wide receiver Tanner McEvoy (6’6”, 231 lbs), who has also seen time at quarterback and safety.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
On paper this appears to be a great opponent for Alabama’s quarterbacks to sort of cut their teeth against, as only Jake Coker has attempted a pass at the collegiate level. Wisconsin’s opponents only picked off six passes in 2014, which was a big reason why it finished No. 110 in the nation in turnover margin at minus-nine. Turnovers have been an obvious point of emphasis for both teams during the offseason, and while this appears to be an area that Alabama can exploit, look for the game to be close if it can’t.
Alabama Players to Watch
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The quarterback
No one is exactly sure who that will be or even if Alabama might use more than one between senior Jake Coker, junior Alec Morris and sophomore Cooper Bateman. All three were listed with the first unit on the depth chart released Monday, with Coker first and Bateman second, but Nick Saban said it could change based on how well the players practiced this week.
Marlon Humphrey
Alabama’s had issues at the cornerback spot the past couple of years, but Humphrey has gone from redshirting to starting. Although preseason All-SEC selection Cyrus Jones is the only returning starter at his position, with Eddie Jackson sliding over to strong safety, Geno Matias-Smith promoted at free safety and true freshman Minkah Fitzpatrick the extra defensive back in nickel formations, it’s pretty obvious who the Badgers are going to want to challenge first.
The entire defense
Alabama is looking to get its swagger back after coming up short against a different Big Ten team at the end of the 2014 season, and what better way than to get some revenge against that conference. The defensive game plan will be simple—stuff the run and the go after the quarterback—but it also wants to establish itself as a ball-hawking group after contributing to a minus-two turnover ratio in 2014.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Running back Corey Clement
After being a backup for two years, the junior is getting his chance to be the starter. He’s averaged 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 1,496 yards and 16 touchdowns and has already notched seven 100-yard games during his career. Wisconsin’s top running back has topped 1,600 rushing yards in each of the past four seasons. Dare Ogunbowale, a converted defensive back, is the primary backup. He had 34 carries for 193 yards and a touchdown last season.
Safety Michael Caputo
The senior safety has already been named a team captain and is coming off a season in which he contributed to a team-high 106 tackles. However, if he’s leading Wisconsin in tackles on Saturday it’ll be a bad sign for the Badgers, because it’ll mean that the Alabama players are getting into the secondary. Between Derrick Henry’s size and Kenyan Drake’s speed, you have to like either if they get a defensive back one-on-one.
Outside linebackers Vince Biegel and Joe Schobert
The two combined for 30 tackles for a loss and 10.5 sacks last season. Alabama’s Dominick Jackson is making his first start at right tackle and it’s no secret that he’s better in run blocking than pass protection. Moreover, both he and starting left tackle Cam Robinson got a little banged up during training camp. How much blitzing will Wisconsin risk?
What They’re Saying
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Paul Chryst on preparing for a team with no set starting quarterback:
“We kind of knew going in that there was going to be a number of different possibilities, and therefore, I think it allowed us to focus on really what we know of Alabama and what they do. In every game, there's going to be certain adjustments that need to be made, whether it's something different than what you saw to be with a player that we know.
"Their center has done a heck of a job. He's a heck of a player. And their left tackle, we have got him on film but maybe something's happened and you have to adjust off that.
“But there's nothing you can do about it other than prepare for what you think you might get similar to every game; and every game, you end up having to make adjustments and I think certainly we are going to — of the game will be no different and we have to make adjustments. That's one thing I do particularly good on defense who have got some veterans. I think they understand the scheme and they understand their role in it. So I think that it can help so when you do have to make adjustments, they can draw back on experience of something they have done before. So I think that will all have to take place, my guess, on Saturday.”
Nick Saban on preparing for a team that has a new head coach:
“For us offensively it’s a little easier because they have the same coordinator at Wisconsin [Dave Aranda] so we’re assuming that he’ll do a lot of the same. A lot of that was sort of that way in the spring game.
"When it comes to what they would do on offense, our defense in preparation we kind of looked at both [Wisconsin and Pitt tape], but [Paul Chryst] has always been sort of that background, of Wisconsin-type run the ball, but also has pro [-style] background in terms of what they did at Pitt, where they were a little more balanced. So we’re sort of doing both when it comes to that. But I think that they’ll probably reflect his philosophy, which is old Wisconsin plus what they did that was a little different at Pitt.”
Prediction
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This is the sixth neutral-site opener for Alabama under Nick Saban, and Alabama has yet to lose. The last time Alabama played in this venue it crushed No. 8 Michigan 41-14 to open the 2012 national championship season.
The last time Wisconsin, in general, visited AT&T Stadium was for the men’s basketball team’s Final Four run in 2014, when it was bounced by Kentucky 74-73.
This game won’t be nearly as high scoring or as close, but no one should expect a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, where Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott ran for 230 yards on the Crimson Tide defense.
Score: Alabama 28, Wisconsin 17
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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