10 Sleeper Heisman Trophy Candidates in 2015
What are the chances that the next Heisman Trophy winner hasn’t even been named a starter for 2015?
That’s precisely what happened just two winners ago, in 2012, when Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel didn’t get the nod until August 6, just weeks before the season opener.
Though this year’s early Heisman odds are stacked with running backs, eight of the last 10 winners were quarterbacks. It means the long shots with the most realistic chance of hitting the big board will play under center.
The common thread shared by the last five Heisman winners, all quarterbacks, is that they accounted for 60-plus percent of their team’s total offensive output. And this wasn’t just any ordinary attack—each ranked in the Top 20 nationally in yards and each won 10-plus games.
Take a look at the following names—some of which you’re already well acquainted with, while others haven’t even earned a starting role. All share a place of the Heisman radar, at least for now.
Anu Solomon, QB, Arizona
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While Arizona’s Anu Solomon’s performance wasn’t all-world last season—his 130.74 passer rating ranked No. 60 in the FBS—he was a redshirt freshman making his first-ever collegiate starts.
Solomon accounted for 63 percent of the Wildcats’ total offense, an attack that ranked No. 26 in the nation and fueled a 10-4 finish. This puts him on par with Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, who accounted for 64 percent of the Ducks’ output in 2014.
In 2015, Solomon will join six other offensive starters, including four of his top receiving targets.
Look for Arizona to be ranked in the preseason Top 20. If it lives up to its billing, it will be Solomon, not running back Nick Wilson or linebacker Scooby Wright III, serving as the team’s Heisman front-runner.
Gunner Kiel, QB, Cincinnati
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Gunner Kiel’s long-awaited collegiate debut ended with a No. 10 national rank in touchdowns (31) and a No. 29 finish in yards per game (250.3). His 3,396 yards of total offense meant he was responsible for 57 percent of the output of the No. 29-ranked unit in the FBS.
Those aren't earth-shattering numbers, but they are solid for a first-year starter and full of promise moving forward.
This season, Kiel will play for an offense that returns eight starters, including three on the offensive line and the entire receiving corps.
What hurts him is that he plays for Cincinnati, a non-power program that went 9-4 in 2014. For Kiel to be a legitimate Heisman candidate, he’ll have to put up obscene numbers and the Bearcats will have to run the tables.
Ryan Finley, QB, Boise State
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Boise State’s Ryan Finley is the first of several guys who has yet to win the starting job.
Finley came to the Broncos in 2013 as a 3-star, pro-style prospect from Phoenix, Arizona. As a redshirt last season, he threw 27 attempts in relief of Grant Hedrick, most notably going 12-of-25 for 161 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the 28-14 loss at Air Force.
As of now, Finley looks to be the leader in what is a four-man race to replace Hedrick.
Whoever gets the nod will lead a team that returns a whopping 16 starters (eight on each side of the ball) from a team that quietly went 12-2 last season. Included in the haul are the entire offensive line and the top three receivers.
This from an offense that ranked No. 9 in scoring, No. 24 in passing and No. 14 in total offense.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
4 of 10
Like Finley, Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes has a bunch of convincing to do before he even gets to start, much less win any awards.
Mahomes was a 3-star dual-threat prospect in 2014. He played in relief of the injured Davis Webb last season, ultimately starting the final three games of the year. He went 105-of-185 for 1,547 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.
With Mahomes splitting time this spring between football and his role as a pitcher and Webb still working to come back from a shoulder injury, expect the competition to stretch into fall practice.
What hurts either candidate is Tech’s recent struggles, especially defensively. Unless the Red Raiders can return to the nine-plus-win range, they will just be another team that pumps out a bunch of yards.
Malik Zaire, QB, Notre Dame
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Notre Dame’s Malik Zaire might be the most realistic sleeper of the bunch.
Zaire was a 4-star dual-threat prospect from Alter High School in Kettering, Ohio, in 2013. He finally got a shot at the end of last season, going 21-of-35 for 266 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in the games with USC and LSU (in the Music City Bowl).
He also rushed for 96 yards and another score on 22 carries in the bowl win. It's comparable to Johnny Manziel and Cam Newton, who both averaged 100-plus yards on the ground in their Heisman-winning campaigns.
For 2015, Zaire is back in a two-horse race with Everett Golson, with reports of a possible continued split of the quarterback duties between the two.
If the Irish do decide to go with one option exclusively, that guy will have 18 starters from last year joining him. That’s the second-most in all of college football.
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
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Joshua Dobbs came to Tennessee as a 3-star pro-style prospect in 2013. After playing the last five games of the season as a freshman in 2013, he waited around again in 2014, this time leading the Vols in their final six contests.
Dobbs went 112-of-177 for 1,206 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions as a sophomore. His completion percentage (63.3) put him among the top 20 quarterbacks in the nation.
Coming into 2015, Dobbs will finally have the job from day one, and he is set to lead a team that brings back the most starters in the SEC (18). Included are 10 on offense and four on the O-line.
Though much was made of Tennessee’s big recruiting wins in 2015 (Rivals.com had them at No. 5), it wasn’t like it was the Vols’ first-in-forever big haul. They signed the No. 5-ranked class in 2014, the No. 20-ranked group in 2013 and the No. 18-ranked class in 2012.
Don’t be surprised if the Volunteers slip into the preseason Top 25; they have all the makings of a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Vernon Adams, QB, Oregon
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Not only has Vernon Adams not won the starting job at Oregon, but he can’t even compete for it until fall practice.
After three seasons as the starter at FCS Eastern Washington, Adams is set to graduate this spring and then burn his final year of eligibility with the Ducks.
Adams' three-year numbers read like a dream sheet for an Oregon program tasked with replacing a Heisman-winning quarterback: 10,438 yards and 110 touchdowns through the air, and 1,232 yards and 11 additional scores on the ground.
His passing numbers are even better the 9,885 yards and 74 touchdowns Baylor’s Robert Griffin III achieved during his three seasons as a starter (2008, 2010-11).
If Adams gets the starting job, he’ll be joined by seven offensive starters, including the top five receivers from an attack that ranked No. 3 in total offense.
Mike Bercovici, QB, Arizona State
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After waiting three years in the wings at Arizona State, Mike Bercovici will finally get his chance as the starter in 2015.
Bercovici was a 3-star pro-style prospect back in 2011 who filled in for Taylor Kelly last season during a three-game stretch from late September to mid-October. He went 92-of-146 during that three-week run, throwing for 1,243 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions.
The streak included wins over Stanford and USC, who Bercovici burned for 510 yards and five touchdowns. It was enough to raise questions about putting Kelly back into action.
In 2015, it will be Bercovici and 16 starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season. Included are three from the O-line, all the receivers and running back D.J. Foster.
Jake Rudock, QB, Michigan
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Perhaps the biggest sleeper of them all, Iowa graduate and soon-to-be Michigan transfer Jake Rudock must battle a roster with five-plus quarterbacks before even taking a snap this fall.
Rudock is set to use his final year of eligibility in Ann Arbor, per Ricky Lindsay of The Michigan Journal, where he’ll likely be up against Shane Morris, Wilton Speight and Alex Malzone for starting honors. Rudock was the starter at Iowa in 2013 and 2014, and his most impressive stat was his 61.7 completion percentage last year, good for No. 2 in the Big Ten.
What bodes well for Rudock, other than new head coach Jim Harbaugh, is the 16 returning starters, the most in the conference and No. 17 in the FBS. Nine are back on offense alone, including the entire O-line.
While Michigan obviously has a slew of improvements to make and slipped in recruiting in 2015, it hauled in top-10-ranked classes in 2012 and 2013, technically this season’s juniors and seniors.
The Wolverines could smash through expectations this season, setting up whomever gets the nod at quarterback for a potentially award-winning season.
Dane Evans, QB, Tulsa
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This just in: Tulsa’s Dane Evans won’t win the Heisman. But he may become the highest small-school finisher since 2013, when Northern Illinois’ Jordan Lynch finished third behind Jameis Winston and AJ McCarron.
Evans, a 3-star pro-style prospect in 2012, will be a junior this season. He finished last season ranked No. 27 in the FBS in yards per game (258.5) and accounted for 64 percent of Tulsa’s offensive output.
What puts Evans and the 2-10 Golden Hurricane into position to do something big is twofold: First, it’s the return of 17 starters, tying Tulsa for the fourth-most in the nation. Nine are due back on each side of the ball, including four to the O-line and the entire receiving corps. That includes Keevan Lucas, the No. 11 receiver in the FBS in 2014 in yards per game (101.6).
Next up is new head coach Philip Montgomery, the same guy who spent the last 10-plus years under the tutelage of Baylor’s Art Briles. Montgomery served as the Bears’ offensive coordinator from 2012 to 2014, leading an attack that ranked No. 1 in scoring each of the last two seasons.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats. Returning starter data courtesy of Phil Steele. Recruiting rankings courtesy of Rivals.com.
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