Breaking Down Early 2015 Heisman Trophy Odds
Friday marked the first major tentpole of the college football offseason: the release of next year's Heisman Trophy odds.
Updates to these odds will arrive in spring and summer, but for now we have the first official look at how the top players in the country are valued, per online betting outpost Bovada.
David Hale of ESPN.com tweeted the full list, which can also be seen below, along with four major takeaways.
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| RB Ezekiel Elliott | Jr. | Ohio State | 6-1 |
| QB Dak Prescott | Sr. | Mississippi State | 7-1 |
| RB Leonard Fournette | So. | LSU | 7-1 |
| QB Trevone Boykin | Sr. | TCU | 15-2 |
| QB Cody Kessler | Sr. | USC | 12-1 |
| RB Nick Chubb | So. | Georgia | 12-1 |
| RB Paul Perkins | Jr. | UCLA | 12-1 |
| RB Derrick Henry | Jr. | Alabama | 14-1 |
| RB Samaje Perine | So. | Oklahoma | 14-1 |
| QB Cardale Jones | Jr. | Ohio State | 14-1 |
| QB J.T. Barrett | So. | Ohio State | 16-1 |
| QB Braxton Miller | Sr. | Ohio State | 18-1 |
| QB Connor Cook | Sr. | Michigan State | 20-1 |
| RB Corey Clement | Jr. | Wisconsin | 25-1 |
| RB D.J. Foster | Sr. | Arizona State | 25-1 |
| RB Royce Freeman | So. | Oregon | 25-1 |
| QB Brad Kaaya | So. | Miami | 33-1 |
| RB Dalvin Cook | So. | Florida State | 33-1 |
| QB Deshaun Watson | So. | Clemson | 33-1 |
| RB James Conner | Jr. | Pittsburgh | 33-1 |
| QB Justin Thomas | Jr. | Georgia Tech | 33-1 |
| RB Nick Wilson | So. | Arizona | 33-1 |
| QB Seth Russell | Jr. | Baylor | 33-1 |
| QB Mason Rudolph | So. | Oklahoma State | 40-1 |
| QB Jacoby Brissett | Sr. | NC State | 50-1 |
| RB Jalen Hurd | So. | Tennessee | 50-1 |
| QB Jared Goff | Jr. | California | 50-1 |
| QB Marquise Williams | Sr. | North Carolina | 50-1 |
| WR Laquon Treadwell | Jr. | Ole Miss | 66-1 |
| LB Scooby Wright III | Jr. | Arizona | 66-1 |
Note: Bovada erroneously listed Mississippi State running back Josh Robinson at 22-to-1. Robinson declared early for the NFL draft and has thus been excluded from our list.
Handicapping Ohio State
Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott, the MVP of the College Football Playoff, was deemed the early favorite at 6-to-1. He rushed for 696 yards and eight touchdowns in the final three games of the season behind a line that returns all five starters.
But Elliott is not a heavy favorite. Last year's January Heisman odds had five players at 6-to-1 or better: Jameis Winston (2/1), Marcus Mariota (3/1), Braxton Miller (11/2), T.J. Yeldon (5/1) and Bryce Petty (6/1). Elliott would have placed outside the top four.
Also of note from Columbus: Cardale Jones (14/1) and J.T. Barrett (16/1) both appear high on the list, although Jones has the slight edge. They and the aforementioned Miller, who is 18-to-1 after missing last season with a shoulder injury, will compete for the job this offseason.
Does this mean sportsbooks value Jones as the favorite to start? Not exactly. Odds are made to draw even, high-money action on as many sides as possible. Doing that requires pandering to public perspective. Jones is not necessarily who sportsbooks think will start; he's who sportsbooks think most people think will start.
Barrett beat Jones out of fall camp last season and won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. He fractured his ankle in the regular-season finale against Michigan, opening the door for Jones to play hero against Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon.
They and Miller, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2013 and 2012, are all worthy options, although Jones is the only one healthy enough to participate in spring practice.
Expect these odds to shift based on how he looks in camp.
Year of the Running Back?
Thirteen of the past 15, eight of the past nine and each of the past five Heisman winners have been quarterbacks. Statistically, they have a far greater chance of winning the award than running backs.
And yet, six of the top 10 listed players are running backs: Elliott, Leonard Fournette (LSU), Nick Chubb (Georgia), Paul Perkins (UCLA), Derrick Henry (Alabama) and Samaje Perine (Oklahoma).
Three more running backs—Corey Clement (Wisconsin), D.J. Foster (Arizona State) and Royce Freeman (Oregon)—cracked the top 16, while Dalvin Cook (Florida State), James Conner (Pittsburgh), Nick Wilson (Arizona) and Jalen Hurd (Tennessee) appeared further down the list.
In short, 2015 looks like the year of the running back...which is scary since, by all indications, 2016 will be better.
Of the 13 listed running backs, only Foster is a rising senior. Five are rising juniors and seven (!!!) are rising sophomores.
Where's the Value?
Scoop up Baylor quarterback Seth Russell at 33-to-1 while you can; it won't be long before his odds shrink to 20-to-1 or lower.
There are two reasons Russell fell as low as he did: (1) because he hasn't proved himself as a full-time starter, and (2) because blue-chip incoming freshman Jarrett Stidham is after his job.
To that first point: Yeah...but so what? Nick Florence backed up Robert Griffin III before leading the country in passing yards in 2012, and Bryce Petty backed up Florence before finishing No. 2 in the country in passer rating in 2013. Baylor backups learn the system for multiple seasons, and then they come in and post huge numbers.
To that second point: Refer to the previous sentence. Art Briles wants to start a seasoned backup, not a true freshman. No matter how much talent Stidham, the No. 38 overall player on the 247Sports composite rankings, possesses, starting a teenager under center is not Briles' M.O. Russell would have to implode for that to happen.
On 85 throws last season, Russell averaged 9.5 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and one interception. The competition wasn't great, but this offense is basically quarterback-proof.
Russell has an All-American left tackle (Spencer Drango), a pair of All-Big 12-caliber receivers (KD Cannon and Corey Coleman) and plays for a team that returns 17 starters and ranked No. 3 on the offseason rankings at Bleacher Report, ESPN and Fox Sports.
Team Success plus Huge Numbers is a winning Heisman formula.
Russell is in a good spot for both.
Unlisted...For Now
Three notable omissions who are sure to gain hype this offseason:
- QB Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee
- QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
- QB Jeremy Johnson, Auburn
Johnson in particular strikes a chord. Like Russell, he has backed up a Heisman candidate the past two seasons but has always shown well when he's played. Unlike Russell, that sample of playing time includes a start against a conference opponent.
Johnson played the first half of the 2014 opener against Arkansas when Nick Marshall was suspended for a marijuana citation. He led the Tigers to touchdowns on their first three possessions, each drive going for 75 yards or more (and the third going for 98). He finished 12-of-16 passing with 243 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
"We feel like he could start for most teams in college football," head coach Gus Malzahn told reporters after the game. "I think everybody saw that tonight."
Hackenberg and Dobbs are prodigious talents who ended last season with big bowl performances. Hackenberg had 371 passing yards and four touchdowns in a win over Boston College, and Dobbs posted an adjusted QBR of 92.5 (out of 100) in a win over Iowa, per ESPN.com.
Any or all of them could crack the odds board this summer.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35
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