Which Star Sophomore Running Back Has Best Chance to Win Heisman Trophy in 2015?
According to most recent numbers at Odds Shark, 13 running backs stand a 50-1 shot or better to win the 2015 Heisman Trophy.
Seven of those running backs are true sophomores:
- Leonard Fournette, LSU (15-2)
- Nick Chubb, Georgia (9-1)
- Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (14-1)
- Royce Freeman, Oregon (25-1)
- Dalvin Cook, Florida State (33-1)
- Nick Wilson, Arizona (33-1)
- Jalen Hurd, Tennessee (50-1)
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It's obvious which backs the numbers favor, but which of those sophomores stands the best actual chance to win the Heisman?
To answer that, we've broken them into five categories—2014 Production, Offensive Line, Competition for Carries, Coach and Team Factors, and Talent—and graded them from one to seven.
Sound off at the bottom and let us know what you think.
2014 Production
1. Chubb: Chubb led the SEC in yards per carry (7.06) and finished second in total rushing yards (1,547). He ran for 143 yards at Missouri in the first start of his career, 202 yards at Arkansas one week later and ended his freshman season with 266 rushing yards against Louisville. Missouri (12), Arkansas (8) and Louisville (18) each had top-20 run defenses, per the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders.
2. Perine: Perine led all freshman running backs with 1,713 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. Both of those numbers ranked No. 8 nationally. His most famous performance came against Kansas in November, when he broke the FBS single-game rushing record—set one week earlier by Melvin Gordon—with 427 yards on 34 carries.
3. Wilson: Wilson finished No. 25 in the country with 1,375 rushing yards—and that was with Terris Jones-Grigsby (121 carries) stealing touches. His highlight yards per opportunity (8.33), which broadly measures how players break long runs, ranked No. 3 among players with 210-plus carries, per Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall. Nos. 1 and 2? Tevin Coleman and Melvin Gordon.
4. Freeman: Freeman ran for 1,365 yards and 18 touchdowns as the power back in Oregon's speed offense. He posted eight consecutive games with 98 yards or more between Oct. 11 and the Pac-12 Championship Game, but sophomore Thomas Tyner, a 5-star recruit in 2013, became the lead back in the College Football Playoff. Freeman logged just 22 carries for 66 yards against Florida State and Ohio State.
5. Fournette: Fournette started slow but came on late to finish with 1,034 rushing yards as a freshman. His signature performance came against Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl, when he posted 143 yards on 11 carries and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. He rushed for 289 yards on his final 30 carries of the year.
6. Cook: Cook received just 24 carries in the first five games of the season but broke out with 122 yards on 23 carries against Syracuse. He never looked back from there, finishing the season with 1,008 rushing yards and 203 receiving yards, most of which were backloaded.
7. Hurd: Hurd is the only sophomore Heisman candidate who failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards (899). He did, however, post more than 1,000 total yards, and his numbers, while inconsistent, included four games with more than 115 rushing yards, so at least he made it clear he can explode.
Offensive Line
1. Chubb: Georgia returns four starters from a unit that finished No. 4 in adjusted line yards (run blocking), per Football Outsiders. The one starter it loses, center David Andrews, was its most valuable player, but Isaiah Wynn and Hunter Long provide capable replacements. Right guard Greg Pyke is a burgeoning superstar.
2. Freeman: Oregon finished No. 1 in adjusted line yards but returns just two starters from that unit. On the bright side, it also returns left tackle Tyler Johnstone, who missed the entire season with a knee injury. He, Tyrell Crosby and Cameron Hunt form a powerful nucleus, and Oregon's coaching staff ensures consistency.
3. Fournette: LSU returns three starters from a unit that finished No. 15 in adjusted line yards. The loss of left tackle La'El Collins—one of the best run-blockers in college football—opens obvious questions, but the return of Jerald Hawkins and Vadal Alexander, both of whom could have easily cashed NFL paychecks, provides obvious answers.
4. Perine: Oklahoma finished No. 10 in adjusted line yards but returns just two starters from that unit. Fortunately, it kept offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh, whose past work with Dana Holgorsen and Mike Leach should make him a smooth fit under offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The Sooners need some young pieces to step up, but they recruit and develop well enough to earn optimism.
5. Hurd: Tennessee couldn't protect the quarterback, ranking No. 118 in adjusted sack rate, but its offensive line did better than expected on the ground, ranking No. 32 in adjusted line yards. Next year it returns four starters, along with adding blue-chip freshman Drew Richmond, who ranked No. 55 overall in the 2015 class.
6. Cook: Florida State finished No. 45 in adjusted line yards and loses four senior starters from that unit. Left tackle Roderick Johnson, who started and played well as a true freshman, will anchor one side of the line, but the rest of the group lacks experience.
7. Wilson: Arizona finished No. 56 in adjusted line yards and returns just two starters from that unit. More to the point, it loses three productive starters from that unit: left tackle Mickey Baucus, right tackle Fabbians Ebbele and center Steven Gurrola. The Wildcats have no bigger question area than offensive line.
Competition for Carries
1. Wilson: The loss of Jones-Grigsby bodes well for Wilson's workload. He should improve on last year's 236 carries—an already huge number—as the sole lead back in the offense. Quarterback Anu Solomon, who logged 137 carries in 2014, broke down at the end of the season. Why not scale back his workload by leaning on Wilson?
2. Fournette: As a freshman, Fournette shared carries with seniors Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard. As a sophomore, there is no such competition. Derrius Guice arrives as the No. 46 overall recruit in the country, but he's a slot back who will help Fournette (by allowing him to rest on passing downs) more than impeding on his carries.
3. Chubb: Yes, Georgia has Sony Michel and (hopefully) Keith Marshall. Both of those guys (when healthy) are great, but neither occupies the same role as Chubb; they are home run threats more than down-to-down grinders. Chubb will be the workhorse no matter what.
4. Cook: Cook became the lead back when Florida State had Karlos Williams, and here's no reason to think he will lose that role with Williams departing. Still, the Noles have a pair of promising juniors, Mario Pender and Ryan Green, vying for meaningful carries, along with early-enrolling freshman Jacques Patrick, the No. 40 overall recruit in 2015.
5. Perine: What's the deal with Joe Mixon? A domestic violence incident kept him sidelined as a freshman, but he was the No. 21 overall recruit in 2014, and his versatile skills make him a perfect fit for Riley's offense. How much does he cut into Perine's workload? What about Keith Ford and Alex Ross? Oklahoma's backfield is a logjam.
6. Hurd: Is Hurd even the best running back on his team? Personally, I say yes, but Alvin Kamara could make a strong case. The one-time Alabama tailback spent last season at junior college, where he earned a 5-star rating from 247Sports. Position coach Robert Gillespie said Kamara "will create a healthy competition in the running backs room," which could either help or destroy Hurd's candidacy.
7. Freeman: Tyner throws a wrench in Freeman's Heisman chances. The former 5-star recruit played like…well, a former 5-star recruit during the College Football Playoff and is primed for an even bigger role next season. Beside him the Ducks have Byron Marshall, a converted running back who now plays "taser," along with Taj Griffin, Malik Lovette and Kirk Merritt—the Nos. 1, 3 and 5 respective all-purpose backs in the 2015 recruiting class.
Coach and Team Factors
1. Wilson: Head coach Rich Rodriguez runs one of the strongest, most creative, most lead-back-oriented offenses in college football. Ka'Deem Carey made back-to-back All-America teams in 2012 and 2013. There's a precedent for Arizona running backs posting Heisman numbers; the question is whether they can win enough games.
2. Freeman: Oregon likes to run as much as any team in the Pac-12. That was true when it had a Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota, playing quarterback, and it's extra true under whoever plays quarterback next season. LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner have posted Heisman-sized numbers in this offense.
3. Fournette: LSU does not have a quarterback—or at least not a quarterback it can trust. Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will compete to start under center, but unless either player takes a massive leap forward, the Tigers will lean hard on the ground game.
4. Chubb: There's a chance we've ranked Chubb too low. Georgia head coach Mark Richt likes to run the ball, and the quarterback situation in Athens remains unclear. The only question surrounding Chubb is first-year offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who in theory relies on the running game, but whose first year back in college represents a giant unknown. Former OC Mike Bobo will be missed.
5. Perine: Last year, Oklahoma ran a power-heavy, downhill offense. Next year, there's a good chance Riley changes that. The Air Raid thrives on spacing, speed and making defenders miss. That doesn't mean a power back can't succeed; he just likely won't be maximized. Oklahoma has a deep cast of wide receivers, which hurts Perine's case, although the lack of an established quarterback helps him.
6. Cook: Florida State needs a quarterback and leaned heavily on Cook last season. That's the good news. The bad news? Head coach Jimbo Fisher prefers a time-share. In his first four seasons at FSU, Fisher's lead back accounted for just 27.5 percent of the team's carries, per David Hale of ESPN.com. Last year, Cook accounted for 37.7 percent of Florida State's carries, which is an improvement, yes, but still far below the usage rate of Heisman-caliber rushers.
7. Hurd: Tennessee head coach Butch Jones runs a balanced, modest offense. His running backs post solid but rarely exceptional numbers. Even Isaiah Pead, a future second-round NFL draft pick, never cracked 1,350 yards under Jones at Cincinnati. It doesn't help that Tennessee's quarterback, Joshua Dobbs, is himself a Heisman dark horse.
Talent (aka, The Subjective Part)
1. Fournette: Call me a slave to the rankings if you must. If it means backing Fournette, I'll take it. Fournette was the No. 1 overall recruit in 2014, and although he took a while to get going, he made plays in the second half of last season that only transcendent, once-or-twice-per-decade talents can make. He is 6'1", 230 pounds and runs faster than any 6'1", 230-pound human should ever run.
2. Chubb: Chubb made replacing Todd Gurley look easy, which is no small task. In fact, the best word for that task is "colossal." Chubb boasts a powerful, stocky frame (5'10", 228 lbs) but ran a 4.44 40-yard dash and posted a 41-inch vertical in high school, per Michael Carvell of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
3. Cook: You like quick feet? Cook's might be the quickest in college football. He's not as much an explosive athlete as a fluid athlete, which is intended as a compliment, as the latter comes around less often. He embarrassed defenders with his juke moves and cutbacks last season, and he should only improve his repertoire with age.
4. Hurd: What's not to like? Hurd stands 6'3", 227 pounds and breaks tackles with both speed and power. He's a long-strider with exceptional vision in whom some see shades of Darren McFadden. There's a reason I think Kamara is the No. 2 back on the roster, and it has nothing to do with my feelings about Kamara. It's because I think Hurd is a superstar.
5. Freeman: Freeman has the size (6'0", 229 lbs) to get downhill and finish near the goal line but also wins with balance and vision. He made an impact as a receiver in 2014, displaying soft hands and proving he could shift his weight after receptions.
6. Perine: Perine is a singular talent who only ranks this low because of the skill of the five players above him. (Translation: I swear I don't mean this as an insult; please don't come after me, Sooners fans.) At 5'11", 243 pounds, he obviously wins with power more than quickness, but he's not as stiff or rigid as one expects from a back his size.
7. Wilson: Wilson was the No. 246 overall recruit in 2014 and easily outperformed his ranking. He's a balanced combination of size (5'10", 199 lbs) and speed, neither excelling nor struggling in either area, but his best attributes are balance, decisiveness and vision.
Final Tally
| 2014 Production | 7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Offensive Line | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Comp. for Carries | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Coach/Team | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Subjective Talent | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| OVERALL: | 29 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 11 |
The Favorite: Chubb
The Long Shot: Hurd
Undervalued: Wilson
Overvalued: Perine
Note: Unless otherwise cited, all recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings. Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35
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