Way-Too-Early College Football Playoff Predictions for 2015-16 Season

The first College Football Playoff was chalky. It had a field one could have reasonably predicted last January. All four playoff teams were ranked in the preseason Top Five, after all.

It's not like any one of them came from nowhere.

I for one predicted three of the four teams in April. The only place I whiffed was with UCLA over Oregon (and, of course, with Alabama beating Florida State in the national title game). I was punished for the one place I didn't go chalk and rewarded for the places I did.

Instead of going chalk in 2015-16, however, my reaction to that makes me want to pick upsets. We can't have all chalk two seasons in a row, can we? A team like TCU should crash the field this year—and if not a team as off the grid as the Horned Frogs, at least some teams expected to fall outside the preseason Top Five or Ten.

I went with my gut for a lot of this. I picked the teams whose direction I feel best about. They have the talent, coaches and schedules to win their conference and make the CFP.

Sound off with your own way-too-early predictions below!

Power Five Champion That Doesn't Make the Cut

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Arizona (Pac-12)

The Pac-12 was my No. 1 conference in college football in 2014. I think it will be in that conversation again next season.

But that doesn't mean it will definitely make the playoff.

Much of what makes the Pac-12 so good is depth. Oregon was the clear best team in 2014, but it was followed by a deep group of relatively equal challengers. Really, what's the difference between Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Utah?

With Oregon set to take a small step backward, however, it's unclear where that clear best team will come from in 2015. Any of the seven teams mentioned above could realistically win the conference and, by extension, beat one another when they play.

Arizona was my way-too-early pick to win the Pac-12 next season, and I'm standing by that (for now). But I don't think the Wildcats will get there with a zero- or one-loss record. I don't think any Pac-12 team will reach Selection Sunday with a zero- or one-loss record.

In this scenario, that means they all miss they cut.

Playoff Seedings

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4. Clemson (12-1)

A healthy DeShaun Watson means an ACC title for Clemson, which plays its two hardest conference opponents, Georgia Tech and Florida State, in Death Valley. Watson had a quarterback rating of 188.57 on 137 passes as a true freshman and has Mike Williams and Artavis Scott back at wide receiver. And the defense, which does lose a lot of talent from the No. 1 unit in college football, also returns some important pieces from…well, the No. 1 unit in college football.

3. Auburn (12-1)

After falling on the road at either LSU or Arkansas, Auburn finishes strong with home wins over Georgia and Alabama. All-SEC quarterback Jeremy Johnson leads the Tigers over Georgia for the second time in four weeks in the SEC Championship Game, and Broyles Award finalist Will Muschamp helps the defense stop Heisman finalist Nick Chubb—a lot like Ohio State did with Melvin Gordon.

2. Baylor (12-0)

No matter who wins the job at quarterback—super backup Seth Russell or super freshman Jarrett Stidham—Baylor has one of the five best offenses in college football, a big-play attack led by running back Shock Linwood, receivers KD Cannon and Corey Coleman and All-American tackle Spencer Drango. TCU is favored to beat the Bears on Nov. 27 in Fort Worth, but Art Briles' team uses its underdog status as a motivator—again, a lot like Ohio State did with Michigan State.

1. Ohio State (13-0)

A 13-0 record would put the Buckeyes on a 26-game winning streak, which is statistically unlikely. But who on their schedule is going to beat them? Michigan State and Penn State both come to Columbus. Virginia Tech and Michigan are good enough to hang close at home, but is either good enough to win? Maybe. But probably not.

Cotton Bowl: (2) Baylor vs. (3) Auburn

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Much ado is made about home-field advantage, just as it was when Baylor played in this year's Cotton Bowl.

And just like this year's Cotton Bowl, it doesn't matter.

Auburn's improved defense does what it must to stop Baylor's offense: namely, pressuring the quarterback with seven. Defensive end Carl Lawson, one of the best freshmen in the country in 2013, continues his resurgent year back from ACL surgery with a pair of timely sacks, and Auburn holds the Bears under 30 points.

That is all the room Gus Malzahn and Auburn's offense need. Biletnikoff finalist D'haquille Williams does to Baylor's secondary what Kevin White did in 2014, making big plays down the field and drawing at least two pass-interference penalties. NFL fans watching college football for the first time demand he be a top-10 pick in 2016.

There's a good chance they get their way.

Final Score: Auburn 34, Baylor 28

Fiesta Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson

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Ohio State just won the College Football Playoff with a team of mostly underclassmen. Next year, not only does it keep most of its two-deep depth chart, but it also returns them with CFP experience.

It also returns them with the confidence to win in multiple ways. Play a team with a weak front seven and a strong secondary? Hand it to Ezekiel Elliott. Play a team with a strong front seven and a weak secondary? Let one of its three NFL-caliber quarterbacks go to work.

Clemson had the strongest front seven in college football last season (and it wasn't all that close), but it loses a lot of talent. Six of its top eight tacklers were seniors, and so were Nos. 13-15. The Tigers won with depth in 2014, with enough capable bodies to rotate and keep their star players (Vic Beasley, Grady Jarrett, et al.) fresh.

Next year they will still have the talent, but they won't have the depth. That is something Ohio State can exploit, the same way it exploited Oregon. It can win up front with its offensive line—from which all five starters return—and dictate the flow of the game.

Final Score: Ohio State 38, Clemson 21

CFP Championship Game: (1) Ohio State vs. (3) Auburn

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Auburn has the front-seven talent to limit Ezekiel Elliot—and that's before national signing day. If the Tigers land top targets such as Byron Cowart, CeCe Jefferson, Arden Key or Jeffrey Holland, they will have the depth to limit him, as well.

What they don't have as much of is secondary talent, even though the pass defense should improve under Will Muschamp and Travaris Robinson. The same way Chris Ash maximized Ohio State's defensive backfield, Muschamp and Robinson should maximize Auburn's.

But they won't be able to hide it as the weakness of the team.

Each of Ohio State's three quarterbacks—J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller—has the arm to exploit Auburn's secondary if the Tigers focus on stopping the run. My money says Barrett wins the job, but as far as this prediction is concerned, it doesn't matter. Arguing about this all offseason is college football's Fredkin's Paradox.

Ohio State has the talent, the coaching and the experience to win a second straight national championship. Does that mean it will? No. Statistically, the repeat is still unlikely. I would still take the field over Ohio State; I just wouldn't take Ohio State behind any one team.

"We’re here, we did it and we’re not going anywhere," OSU freshman Jalin Marshall said after beating Oregon, per Tim May of The Columbus Dispatch. "We’re all coming back to try to win it again."

The "all" in Marshall's quote is only a slight exaggeration.

Until further notice, that makes Ohio State the obvious favorite.

Final Score: Ohio State 35, Auburn 30