College Football Playoff 2014: Week 16 Rankings and Predictions

Coming into Sunday, there were six teams for four spots. Alabama and Oregon cemented their status as the nation's two best teams, taking their respective conference championships in impressive fashion.

After them? Pure anarchy. The College Football Playoff selection committee was tasked with separating four teams of relatively similar stature for the remaining two spots, each boasting its own convincing argument.    

Florida State, despite its numerous flaws, is the only FBS team without a loss. TCU's lone loss of the season came against a fellow Top Six team in Baylor, which has consistently pointed to its head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs for resume affirmation. Ohio State has survived season-ending injuries to two quarterbacks and still managed to obliterate Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.

It was an unenviable assignment. No matter which way the committee swung its votes, two schools were going to leave disappointed. The Horned Frogs and Bears became those two teams Sunday, as Florida State and Ohio State joined Alabama and Oregon in the College Football Playoff.

No. 1 Alabama will take on No. 4 Ohio State at the Sugar Bowl, while No. 2 Oregon travels to the Rose Bowl for a matchup against No. 3 Florida State. 

The top-seeded Crimson Tide come into the playoff with no controversy surrounding their selection. Though their early schedule was a bit weak, they've taken down four Top 25 teams in their last five games and looked impressive on both sides of the ball.

Alabama raced out to a 21-3 lead and scored the final 21 points in its 42-13 win over Missouri on Saturday. T.J. Yeldon, Derrick Henry and Blake Sims each accounted for two touchdowns, and the Tide defense did an excellent job of bottling up a struggling Missouri offense. Nick Saban's team came into the week considered the nation's best team by the committee and numerous advanced metrics, which helped make them a 9.5 favorite over Ohio State, per ESPN's Darren Rovell:

"All everyone wants to talk about is the playoffs," Saban told reporters. "It's tough to win (in this conference). It's tough to win your division and this game."

Urban Meyer continued his dominant Big Ten run at Ohio State on Saturday with a playoff-clinching 59-0 win over Wisconsin. Third-stringer Cardale Jones threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns, and the Buckeyes defense held Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon to just 76 yards on 26 carries. Ezekiel Elliott, meanwhile, rushed for 220 yards and two touchdowns, with Ohio State regularly picking up massive chunks of yardage.

"It was a huge statement," Jones told reporters. "I mean we played a great, great team, the No. 2 defense in the country and we put up 59 points on them. And they have the best running back in the country."

The Buckeyes' ascent is a surprise given how little the committee initially respected them. They were viewed as the nation's second-worst one-loss team from a Power Five conference in Week 11, ranked behind a Nebraska team that recently fired its coach. From the outset TCU and Baylor were significantly ahead of Ohio State; the committee's flip-flop will undoubtedly be the source of controversy in the coming days. 

Game	Game	Matchup	Prediction
Sugar Bowl	Sugar Bowl	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State	Alabama 38, Ohio State 24
Rose Bowl	Rose Bowl	No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State	Florida State 42, Oregon 38
National Championship	National Championship	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Florida State	Alabama 41, Florida State 23

Florida State, as has been the case all season, didn't have such an easy time. The Seminoles allowed 331 rushing yards and trailed at multiple points in the first half before holding on late for a 37-35 win over Georgia Tech. The last of Roberto Aguayo's three field goals proved to be the game-clincher, giving Florida State its first two-possession lead of the game and providing enough of a cushion to survive the Yellow Jackets' late comeback push.

After not allowing a team to come closer than two touchdowns last season, seven Seminoles contests have been within one possession in 2014. It's been a run that has frustrated many, confounded others and taken years off the life expectancy of Tallahassee's population.

It's also one of the most impressive streaks in recent college football history. Amid the near-constant controversy, highly variant play on both sides of the ball and every team offering their best shot, Florida State has won an ACC record 29 straight games.

"Last year's team was dominating, this year's team is more amazing," Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "It is really is...They compete together. They have had some struggles together and I think that's what makes them so tight."

Oregon boasts a player in Marcus Mariota who is a near-lock to overtake Winston as the Heisman Trophy winner this season. Mariota accounted for five touchdowns and again avoided turnovers, leading the Ducks to a 51-13 thrashing of Arizona. The junior quarterback has thrown for 38 touchdowns against two interceptions this season, adding 669 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

For his career, Mariota has been picked off only 12 times and accounted for 129 touchdowns.

"If this guy isn't what the Heisman Trophy is all about, then I'm in the wrong profession," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. "If you want your son or daughter to have a role model, pick this guy."

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Oregon sits third in the nation in points per game and has developed into a better all-around team. Coming into this week Football Outsiders had the team's defense a solid 23rd nationally, a ranking that should move up given its thrashing of Arizona's high-powered attack. It also helps that the Ducks have an excellent special teams outfit that has the ability to change any game in one play.

TCU could argue that it's just as well-rounded and not be wrong. The Horned Frogs lead the nation in point differential, defeating their opponents by an average of 25.8 points. They are second nationally in scoring and 16th in defensive points allowed. Baylor is the nation's highest scoring team, defeated TCU head-to-head and has a Heisman candidate in Bryce Petty.

"I feel like we did everything we needed to do on our end to be one of those top four teams," TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin told reporters.

The Big 12 outfit, which one year ago went 4-8 and looked ill-equipped for its move to a Power Five conference, will again be left feeling it doesn't belong. 

From the outside looking in, TCU and Baylor will have their eyes transfixed on the Buckeyes. The conference's lack of definitive champion—the Big 12 considered Baylor and TCU co-champion—very likely cost one of them the final spot. Of course, Baylor coach Art Briles said he believes there shouldn't have been a controversy. 

"What country do we live in? America?" Briles told reporters this week. "If you and I race and you beat me, you're faster than me. We play a football game on the field, we win, we're the better team. We are and that's the way it is."

The committee disagreed, but held both teams out for reasons that will create a ripple effect across college football. The Big 12's lack of championship game should be atop the talking points list as they look to improve their national standing.     

Nonetheless, Ohio State and the committee will both be hoping they made the right decision come New Year's Day.

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