Bowl Projections: Playoff Predictions Heading into Conference Championship Week

For the first time all season, some clarity has been provided atop the College Football Playoff rankings. Mississippi State's upset loss at Ole Miss leaves only one SEC team with one loss and opens the possibility of champions from four different conferences making the playoff.

Heading into Tuesday night's reveal, the four playoff teams are pretty obvious. Alabama and Oregon did nothing to lose their spots as the country's two best teams, and Florida State just continues to do Florida State things at No. 3. TCU, which has been a committee favorite over Ohio State and Baylor, seems like a lock at No. 4.

The only question is whether everything will stay the same heading into conference championship week.

Despite losing quarterback J.T. Barrett, the Buckeyes have a chance to solidify their resume against a red-hot Wisconsin team. Baylor, which defeated TCU earlier this season, can add a win against a Top 25 opponent when it hosts Kansas State on Saturday.

The Bears would not only receive head-to-head consideration but would also clinch a Big 12 championship, solidifying two of the biggest pillars for the committee.

Would that be enough to leapfrog TCU and move into the fourth spot? Let's check out the latest projections and find out.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 TCU

To answer the question previously posited: Nope. TCU should still have enough of a margin over Baylor and Ohio State to get in, assuming the Horned Frogs take care of business against Iowa State. Their loss to Baylor will come up in some discussion—as it should—but it's about finding context in a murky situations.

Few remember that game because it was nearly two months ago, but it remains inexplicable that TCU blew their lead. The Frogs led, 58-37, with 11 minutes, 38 seconds remaining and somehow allowed Baylor to score 24 points in the remaining time to pull off perhaps the season's most impressive comeback.

While some rightly view that as a black mark on TCU's resume, it's also worth noting that game was in Waco. Coming within three points of one of the nation's five best teams on the road in most cases would not receive any outward criticism. Alabama dropped Mississippi State by five points in Tuscaloosa, and the Bulldogs only dropped to No. 4; it's only fair that similar leeway be granted to TCU.

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The most basic question for the committee to answer is this: Neutral field, who wins? If we acknowledge the normal three-point home spread, then it would appear TCU and Baylor are as even as they come. The Horned Frogs, however, have looked like the far superior team over the course of the regular season.

Ohio State, meanwhile, has little hope of convincing the committee it's worth taking over the two Big 12 teams given Barrett's injury. Cardale Jones may prove to be just as good in the long run, but he'll only have a one-game sample to prove himself to the committee. It won't and probably shouldn't be enough.

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Alabama is the no-brainer as a No. 1 seed. The Tide have taken care of Auburn and Mississippi State in impressive fashion, and they're a strong favorite over what appears to be a pretty overrated Missouri team.

Whereas each SEC West team went through a weekly gauntlet, Missouri was gifted a slate that includes exactly one team still ranked in the Top 25 (Georgia). The Tigers have won only one conference game by more than 10 points, and they lost to Indiana.

So, yes, the Tide will be heading exactly where they were expected to start the season. Whether they'll be able to hoist Nick Saban's fifth national championship is another question entirely.

No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State

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This matchup has seemed like a mortal lock for weeks. With the committee dinging Florida State for its propensity for close games against unranked opponents and Alabama's schedule backloaded, the Seminoles and Ducks have been natural bedfellows.

Oregon did most of its damage early in the season but always had a difficult Pac-12 Championship Game awaiting. Arizona was able to clinch its spot on the back of two impressive victories over Utah and Arizona State to cap their regular season. Rich Rodriguez's outfit will be a tougher matchup than most are expecting, and Oregon more than deserves to stay in the picture with a win.

Florida State is gone the moment it loses. If there is anything that could create a no-questions-asked Final Four, it's the Seminoles going down to Georgia Tech on Saturday. Then again, the Seminoles defeating Georgia Tech might be enough for some to say they deserve the so-called "home" team distinction in this matchup.

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Regardless of the dents in its resume, Florida State is the only FBS program in the country without a loss. The amount of luck necessary to stay undefeated has been astounding, and most would agree that this isn't college football's best team. But there is something to be said for staying undefeated when you're taking every team's best shot and facing national scrutiny on every snap.

"Well, you know, we were downgraded every time we blew someone out last year, so think of the irony of that," Jameis Winston told reporters. "If we win the game close, we're bad. When we blow someone out, we're bad. But the thing is, we're a team, we're a family at Florida State. What everyone else thinks about us, that's none of our business."

On paper, all four of these matchups look like high-scoring affairs. Alabama and TCU are better defensively than Oregon and Florida State, but both have had their big-time lapses. The Ducks, as is a yearly occurrence, have blitzed everybody with their fast-paced attack. The Seminoles find ways to win—whether it be high-scoring, low-scoring or anything in between.

Assuming they all get out of this weekend unscathed, the College Football Playoff should be the showcase the NCAA dreamt of.

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