College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Top 25 Before Week 15 Release

Rivalry games created a ton of drama, and while many of the favorites won to maintain their spot near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings, there will be one new addition to the first four in Week 15's standings.

Mississippi State couldn't pull out a road victory in the Egg Bowl over Ole Miss, falling 31-17 to lose its grip on the No. 4 postseason berth.

UCLA had been the headliner for the two-loss teams still hoping for a playoff spot, yet the Bruins were blown out 31-10 by Stanford to put an abrupt halt to their gaudier aspirations.

Here is a projected list of the updated Top 25, which will be revealed on Tuesday, along with a breakdown of the biggest storylines to expect when the new rankings come out.

Rank	Team	Record
1	Alabama	11-1
2	Oregon	11-1
3	Florida State	12-0
4	TCU	10-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Baylor	10-1
7	Mississippi State	10-2
8	Michigan State	10-2
9	Arizona	10-2
10	Kansas State	9-2
11	Wisconsin	10-2
12	Georgia Tech	10-2
13	Missouri	10-2
14	Arizona State	9-3
15	Ole Miss	9-3
16	UCLA	9-3
17	Georgia	9-3
18	Auburn	8-4
19	Oklahoma	8-3
20	Boise State	10-2
21	Clemson	9-3
22	Louisville	9-3
23	Minnesota	8-4
24	LSU	8-4
25	USC	8-4

Top 25 Biggest Storylines

TCU Back in Playoff Picture

Debate will rage on about whether Baylor deserves to be ranked above the Horned Frogs on the strength of its 61-58 head-to-head victory in Waco.

First, the Bears had home-field advantage, mounted an admittedly epic comeback and haven't had as good of a defense or nonconference schedule as TCU has. If Baylor can defeat Kansas State next week, it may do enough to leapfrog the Horned Frogs.

Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports noted how the circumstances are actually rather favorable for TCU to hold on, though:

Considering starting Bears quarterback Bryce Petty exited the team's narrow 48-46 escape over Texas Tech with a concussion, the odds of doing that suffer. So for now, it's TCU's turn to occupy the coveted fourth and final spot.

An easy 48-10 victory over Texas gives the Horned Frogs a sensational recent performance to point to.

The selection committee's treatment of an undefeated Florida State team, which has been behind both Alabama and Oregon (one loss each) in the past two editions, reflects its penchant for teams that control games best. That's something the Horned Frogs have been superior at lately, and it should reveal itself in Tuesday's release.

Can Ohio State Still Sneak Into Top 4?

Matters become complicated by the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett, who is out for the season with an ankle fracture. The Buckeyes would be a candidate to jump to fourth if not for their star signal-caller going down in Saturday's win over Michigan.

Now it's likely that one of two Big 12 contenders in Baylor or TCU will make the leap into the top four for the time being. As mentioned above, yours truly is partial to the Horned Frogs.

But Ohio State may not be down and out just yet. A lot hinges on the play of former third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. Head coach Urban Meyer seems to feel Jones is in better position to thrive than Barrett was when he initially took over, via Cleveland.com's Bill Landis:

"

The difference is Cardale is going to walk into an experienced huddle. He's got five linemen who have played together all year, and done pretty well. He's got a 1,000-yard rusher at tailback. When J.T. stepped in there, there was a sophomore tailback that never started a game. There was nothing around J.T. with experience. Now there's a much more veteran group that's one of the top offenses in the country.

"

The Wisconsin Badgers are the Buckeyes' final hurdle in the Big Ten Championship Game. Led by running back Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin will provide a tough test for OSU's formidable front seven.

Shaky QB play has prevented the Badgers from being an even better team, so if Jones can even emulate Barrett's level of play, the Bucks may be in better shape than most expect. With a powerful ball-carrier in Ezekiel Elliott to hand it to, perhaps OSU can beat Wisconsin at its own game this next Saturday by grinding it out on the ground.

All eyes will be on Jones to see whether he can rise to the occasion as the sudden starter, on the biggest stage he could have imagined and with the stakes so high. A conference title may be enough to boost the Buckeyes beyond both Baylor and TCU to render the Big 12 debate obsolete.

Florida State Finds a Way

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

A little bit of slant rhyme and pseudo-alliteration to carry this subplot. Literary devices aside, the Seminoles refuse to stop winning. Should they fall in the ACC Championship Game against Georgia Tech, chaos will ensue. Until then, the reigning national champions deserve to remain at No. 3 or rise higher.

Given how partial the committee has been to Oregon and the deciders' emphasis on style points, it's reasonable to infer that FSU won't budge in Tuesday's standings. This team deserves respect, though, and it's only the Ducks' transcendent play over the past two months and Alabama's perpetual dominance that merit their spots ahead of FSU.

Taking an opponent's best shot week in and week out is something few programs are equipped to handle. Coach Jimbo Fisher is proving capable of ensuring the Seminoles are up to the task regardless of the circumstances.

ESPN Stats & Info noted how lackluster last year's Heisman winner, Jameis Winston, played in the Seminoles' most recent close call:

Winston must take better care of the football after his four interceptions nearly cost FSU this last weekend in a 24-19 win over Florida. Otherwise, the conference title game could see the Seminoles be dominated in time of possession.

Georgia Tech sports a unique triple-option rushing attack. Run-heavy teams in Florida and Boston College have given Florida State fits. As long as Winston can protect the football, FSU should enter the College Football Playoff format with confidence of the proof of coming out on top before and that it can pull out a tight game.