Ultimate Guide to College Football Rivalry Weekend
Rivalry Week is the bittersweet conclusion of the college football regular season as we know it.
It is the last week with what one would call a "full slate of games," which for obvious reasons is terrible. But it annually gives us one of the best, most entertaining weeks of the year.
This year's assortment of rivalry games looks as good as usual, if not better. Starting Thanksgiving night and continuing through Friday and Saturday, the schedule is littered with games that feature massive postseason, division, conference and College Football Playoff implications.
With four spots to vie for instead of two, this year's stretch run is roughly twice as exciting as the years of the BCS era. Don't argue with that—it's science.
Here is everything you need to know about the weekend ahead.
Arizona State at Arizona
1 of 10
When: Friday, November 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Nickname: The Duel in the Desert
Trophy: Territorial Cup
Line: n/a
Arizona-Arizona State is a balanced, competitive, underrated rivalry that has rarely meant this much on a national scale.
The last time both teams were ranked when they met was in 1975, when No. 8 Arizona State beat No. 12 Arizona, 24-21. Only eight times in the subsequent 38 years has even one of the teams been ranked.
This year, however, the Duel in the Desert means a lot to both sides. The Sun Devils and Wildcats enter with identical 9-2 records and ostensible Top 15 rankings. If Stanford beats UCLA in a game that kicks off at the same time, the winner of this game will claim the Pac-12 South title and play Oregon for the conference championship.
Arizona State won last year's meeting in a blowout, 58-21. Running back D.J. Foster had 150 total yards and two touchdowns.
Against-the-Spread Pick: n/a (Arizona to win straight up)
Michigan at Ohio State
2 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, noon ET (ABC)
Nickname: The Game
Trophy: n/a
Line: Ohio State (-20)
The stakes will be high for both teams—albeit for drastically different reasons—when "The Game" kicks off Saturday at noon.
Ohio State needs a win to keep its playoff hopes alive, and probably needs to win in convincing fashion. After struggling to beat Indiana this past weekend, it cannot afford to look less than dominant. It needs to make Michigan look like the below-.500 team it is.
On that front, Michigan needs a win to make a bowl game, which says everything you need to know about the state of the Brady Hoke era. Last week's home loss to Maryland put the Wolverines at risk of missing the postseason for the third time in seven seasons.
Before that, it had made 33 consecutive bowls.
Embattled Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner played the best game of his career against Ohio State last season, nearly leading an upset over the then-undefeated Buckeyes. But Hoke went for the win with a two-point conversion after what might have been the game-tying touchdown, and Gardner was intercepted on the play.
Ohio State has won nine of the last 10 meetings.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Ohio State (-20)
Georgia Tech at Georgia
3 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, noon ET (SEC Network)
Nickname: Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate
Trophy: n/a
Line: Georgia (-13)
Georgia has owned Georgia Tech the last decade-plus, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings, but this might be the Yellow Jackets' year.
Paul Johnson's team, after all, is the one that has already clinched a spot in its conference title game, having done so with a 6-2 record in the ACC Coastal. Mark Richt's Bulldogs can only make the SEC title game if Missouri loses to Arkansas later in the afternoon.
Let's assume for a minute that that happens. Georgia has a chance to beat a good Georgia Tech team that itself has a chance to beat Florida State. If the 'Dawgs beat the Yellow Jackets, the Yellow Jackets beat the 'Noles and the 'Dawgs beat Alabama or Mississippi State, is it really so far-fetched to think they might make the playoff?
Not really.
In order for all that to happen, though, Georgia needs to defend the run the way it did against Auburn a couple of weeks ago, and not how it did against Florida a few weeks before that. Georgia Tech's triple-option offense has never looked as good as it has this season.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Georgia Tech (+13)
South Carolina at Clemson
4 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, noon ET (ESPN)
Nickname: The Battle of the Palmetto State
Trophy: Hardee's Trophy
Line: Clemson (-4.5)
Not much other than bragging rights will be on the line when Clemson hosts South Carolina in the Battle of the Palmetto State.
But in this rivalry more than others, bragging rights matter.
South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier and Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney have a puckish personal rivalry that ranks among the best in college football, and this game will go a long way in dictating who holds the smack-talk advantage all offseason. It will also make an obvious recruiting impact.
As for the game itself, South Carolina's offense against Clemson's defense should be a treat to watch, but the other side of the ball might be brutal. According to the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, the Gamecocks have the No. 112 defense in America, third-worst among power-conference teams. The Tigers offense without Deshaun Watson has been equally, uncharacteristically abysmal.
Watson, a true freshman quarterback who missed four games with a hand injury and promptly hurt his leg upon returning, will practice this week and might be the ultimate deciding factor if he plays.
"He can't be a sitting duck back there," Swinney said of Watson's availability, per Tony Crumpton of TigerNet.com. "He's got to be able to move, scramble, run and all that stuff.
"We have to evaluate that and see where he is."
Against-the-Spread Pick: Clemson (-4.5)
Florida at Florida State
5 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Nickname: n/a
Trophy: n/a
Line: Florida State (-7.5)
Ten years ago, Florida head coach Ron Zook was fired midseason but allowed to finish out the campaign (sans the bowl game). His Gators were 6-4 when they traveled to Tallahassee to play a Top 10 Florida State team but somehow pulled the massive upset, 20-13.
This year, Florida head coach Will Muschamp "resigned" midseason but is finishing out the campaign (sans the bowl game). His Gators are 6-4 and traveling to Tallahassee to play a Top 10 Florida State team.
Might history repeat itself at Doak-Campbell?
It wouldn't be as crazy as it sounds.
Florida State is 11-0 this season and riding a 27-game overall winning streak but hasn't looked indomitable as it did en route to last year's national title. Oklahoma State, Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami and Boston College have all looked, at times, like they were poised to overthrow the defending champs.
Florida beat a Georgia team that some—this author included—would argue has been better than the 'Noles for the majority of this season. The Gators' passing game is a wreck, but they should be able to run the ball against a defense that has struggled on the ground.
This might be the game of the weekend.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Florida (+7.5)
Mississippi State at Ole Miss
6 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Nickname: The Egg Bowl
Trophy: The Golden Egg
Line: Mississippi State (-2)
Ole Miss no longer has a chance to make the playoff after getting crushed 30-0 at Arkansas last weekend. But it does still have a chance to play spoiler for its arch rival, Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs are actually sitting in a pretty good spot right now and might, in some ways, have the clearest road to the national semifinal. If they beat Ole Miss in Oxford, they will either win the SEC West or finish 11-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama.
The Egg Bowl is always a weird one, however, and should not by any means be handed to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs and Rebels have split the last 14 meetings dating back to the start of the millennium.
Fans of peripheral playoff contenders such as TCU, Ohio State and Baylor will be rooting hard for the "Landsharks" to return to form and score an upset over Dan Mullen, Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs.
It might be their best shot of crashing the final four.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Ole Miss (+2)
Notre Dame at USC
7 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Nickname: n/a
Trophy: Jeweled Shillelagh
Line: USC (-7.5)
Call this one the Salvage-Your-Season Bowl.
Whichever team loses is in for a long, long, long eight months.
USC and Notre Dame are both riding low with 7-4 records and cannot afford to finish the year with a loss. The difference between an 8-4 regular season and a 7-5 regular season is more than just one game. It is a buffer that makes the bowl game less of a do-or-die scenario.
Notre Dame has won the past two meetings and three of the last four after USC won eight straight meetings in the aughts, but the Trojans opened as touchdown favorites on their home field, per Odds Shark.
A seven-point loss would be ruinous to Brian Kelly.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Notre Dame (+7.5)
Auburn at Alabama
8 of 10
When: Saturday, November 29, 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Nickname: The Iron Bowl
Line: Alabama (-9.5)
Did this game lose some intrigue when Auburn lost to Texas A&M (and Georgia)? Yes. Definitely. If both teams were 10-1, the outcome of Auburn-Alabama would have playoff implications on both sides.
Even without those stakes, however, the ghosts of last year's "Kick Six" will haunt the 2014 Iron Bowl, making it a can't-miss event. Chris Davis is gone, but Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn is 1-0 against his arch rival after last year's memorable win.
Alabama would clinch the SEC West with a victory and could possibly win it even with a loss (depending on the outcome of Mississippi State-Ole Miss). But an Auburn win might open up an SEC nightmare scenario whereby no team finishes with fewer than two losses.
If the Tigers want to spring the upset, though, their defense will need to fix its tackling issues—and fast. Auburn has allowed an average of 35.8 points per game in its last five SEC contests.
Against-the-Spread Pick: Alabama (-9.5)
Other Games with National Implications
9 of 10
TCU (-6.5) at Texas
Thursday, November 27, 7:30 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
TCU has a chance to make a loud-and-clear statement with a Thanksgiving night road trip to Austin. But Texas is peaking at the right time and has a defense that can hang with the Horned Frogs. If Tyrone Swoopes plays as well as he did against Oklahoma State, TCU's playoff run might be knocked off its tracks.
The Pick: Texas (+6.5)
Arkansas at Missouri
Friday, November 28, 2:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Arkansas has not allowed a point in eight quarters during back-to-back wins over LSU and Ole Miss. Missouri does not have a consistent offense but needs this game even more than the Tigers and Rebels. If they win, the Tigers will win the SEC East for the second consecutive season. If they lose, the division will go to Georgia.
The Pick: n/a (Missouri to win straight up)
Stanford at UCLA (-4.5)
Friday, November 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
UCLA has overcome its early-season malaise and is finally playing like the team we all expected to see this summer. A win over Stanford would push the Bruins into the Pac-12 title game for a rematch with Oregon, which beat them handily in mid-October. Stanford, though, has beaten UCLA six consecutive times since 2009.
The Pick: UCLA (-4.5)
Baylor (-24.5) at Texas Tech
Saturday, November 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
Baylor is playing its best football of the year but cannot afford to look ahead to next week's game against Kansas State. Texas Tech has not been very good halfway decent this season, but stranger things have happened in the Big 12. Kliff Kingsbury would love to derail Baylor's playoff hopes, for recruiting purposes if nothing else.
The Pick: Texas Tech (+24.5)
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-13.5)
Saturday, November 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
The winner of this game will play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, making this a de facto conference semifinal. Minnesota got over the hump and scored a quality win at Nebraska last weekend, but as we saw two weeks ago, Wisconsin and Nebraska are completely different monsters. Winning in Madison will be a much, much tougher feat.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-13.5)
Oregon (-20) at Oregon State
Saturday, November 29, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Oregon is a drastically better team than Oregon State, but drastically better teams than Oregon State have made a habit of losing in Corvallis. The Ducks have also made a habit of struggling to win the Civil War, as they did when they needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Beavers in Autzen Stadium last season.
A loss would not keep Oregon out of the Pac-12 title game, but it would eliminate the Ducks from the playoff and might cost Marcus Mariota his Heisman.
The Pick: Oregon State (+20)
Games Deciding Bowl Eligibility
10 of 10
*indicates a 5-6 team that needs a win to make the postseason.
Virginia* (-1.5) at Virginia Tech*
Friday, November 28, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This might be a "loser leaves town" game between Mike London and, unthinkably, Frank Beamer. The latter has done enough for Virginia Tech to one day have a statue built in his honor, but missing a bowl game for the first time since 1992 on the heels of last week's 6-3 loss at Wake Forest would be tough to bounce back from.
The Pick: Virginia (-1.5)
Michigan* at Ohio State (-20)
Saturday, November 29, noon ET (ABC)
(Discussed on previous slide.)
Kentucky* at Louisville (-13.5)
Saturday, November 29, noon ET (ESPN2)
Kentucky has made great progress in its second year under Mark Stoops, but has it done enough to land in a bowl game? We'll find out when it travels to play in-state rival Louisville. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the ACC and can do the non-SEC world a favor by holding serve against a lower-tier SEC opponent.
The Pick: Kentucky (+13.5)
Illinois* at Northwestern* (-8.5)
Saturday, November 29, noon ET (ESPNU)
The winner of the LOL Trophy will represent the Big Ten in a bowl game. The loser of this game will not. Illini head coach Tim Beckman might be coaching to save his job, while Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald may be trying to earn a better job at a bigger school.
The Pick: Illinois (+8.5)
Tennessee* (-17) at Vanderbilt
Saturday, November 29, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Like Kentucky, Tennessee has made great progress under its second-year head coach, Butch Jones. But, like Kentucky, it still needs one more win to land in a bowl game. Unlike Kentucky, however, it does not have to play a good team such as Louisville.
The Pick: Tennessee (-17)
BYU at Cal* (-4)
Saturday, November 29, 4:30 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
Cal laid a stinker against Stanford last weekend but still has a chance to make a bowl game if it beats BYU at home. It is difficult to stress how badly Sonny Dykes and Co. need this win to stoke momentum for next season. An extra month of practice and one extra game would do wonders for a young-but-promising offense.
The Pick: Cal (-4)
Pittsburgh* at Miami
Saturday, November 29, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pittsburgh needs this win to make a bowl for the seventh consecutive season—its longest streak since the early 1980s. Depending on which Miami team shows up, scoring that win might be tough. If the Miami team that dominated the first half of (and the three games prior to) the Florida State game takes the field, the Panthers might be in trouble. If the Miami team that just got drilled against Virginia takes the field, the Panthers should be able to salvage a spot in a bowl.
The Pick: n/a (Miami to win straight up)
Oregon (-20) at Oregon State*
Saturday, November 29, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
(Discussed on previous slide.)
All betting lines courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
