Kramer's College Football Notebook: Is SEC Bias Back?

You could argue that the Week 13 College Football Playoff Top 25 is rife with SEC bias, although you’d have to wander down a ways to make your case, with the first four teams being fine right where they are. 

With so much conversation taking place over whether the SEC is receiving preferential treatment by the selection committee, it has become abundantly clear that this group still values the Southeastern Conference above all others.

That's not necessarily bias, but it is the current reality.

If you have gripes with the SEC’s poll placement, don’t look at Alabama, the nation’s No. 1. Don’t focus in on Mississippi State, which fell only to the fourth spot—and reasonably so—after a loss to the Crimson Tide. These teams have done enough to warrant consideration for the playoff, at least right now. You may not necessarily agree completely, but you understand.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

As you dive deeper down the poll, you notice a trend. You see Georgia back in the Top 10 only weeks after suffering a loss to Florida, a team whose head coach stepped down just days ago. Although the Bulldogs—at least talent-wise—are on par if not better than the teams below them, the committee was quick to forget one of this season’s most surprising losses. That doesn’t mean it's wrong about this particular move, but it is a noteworthy stance being made.

Perhaps more intriguing, however, is the team Georgia manhandled on Saturday. Auburn, in the midst of a nasty tailspin, still only dropped to the No. 14 spot, down from No. 9 in Week 12.

While you could argue that Auburn’s current rank doesn’t matter—pointing out that its playoff hopes are all but dead—that doesn’t mean this rating won’t alter the perception of others going forward.

It could help a team like Alabama solidify the No. 1 rank if the Crimson Tide beat the Tigers in the Iron Bowl Nov. 29. It could also help Mississippi State creep into the playoff if Auburn is able to return to form, considering the Tigers are likely still the Bulldogs’ best win.

This is where the case for SEC bias can be made, in the far less obvious places. But in reality, such bias—whether real or manufactured jargon—won’t even be realized until the final ranking is released on Dec. 7 and our semifinal games are crafted.

At that point, we’ll be able to decide if one conference was given preferential treatment over another. Until then, we’re simply taking notes and tossing out claims along the way. I suppose it helps us pass the time. 

As for other observations on the latest rankings, here’s what stood out.

2-Loss Teams Are Still Alive

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

While we’re busy debating the resumes of one-loss teams within reach of the top four positions, there are things brewing down below that warrant your attention. 

Georgia, UCLA and Ole Miss—three teams with two losses—are just sort of hanging around, waiting for the appropriate time to shock the system.

The case for the Rebels isn’t as obvious. They need to win out, which is not a given with Arkansas and Mississippi State to come, and they also need help. But with Alabama assuming the role as the new No. 1, Ole Miss at least can point to its schedule and highlight perhaps the most impressive win of all Top 10 teams to date. 

A lot has to fall into place for this run to be realized, although crazier things have happened, as you’re well aware. 

For Georgia and UCLA—two teams that looked to be out of this at various points in the season—the path to the playoff is a bit more defined. It's also not a tremendous leap. If one or both of these teams are able to find their way into their conference championship games without another loss on the schedule, there’s a decent likelihood each will draw a top-three opponent in the finale.

Say Georgia closes out the season by beating Alabama, or UCLA finishes with a revenge victory over Oregon; how will the selection committee respond?

These remain “what if?” scenarios as it stands today, but all three could reach the playoff with a little (or a lot of) help.

TCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Mississippi State and No. 4-Spot Chaos

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Perhaps this situation will sort itself out cleanly and the committee will be able to toss an obvious team into the fourth and final playoff opening with a smile and without a ton of debate. 

In all likelihood, however, this will not be the case. And the resume dissection when it comes to Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor—the teams with one loss in the No. 4 through No. 7 spots—could play out through conference championship weekend. 

"

.@jefflongUA: “The differences between teams 4-7 are narrow, very narrow. There are more games to play....”

— George Schroeder (@GeorgeSchroeder) November 19, 2014"

There is an excellent case to be made for all four as it stands right now: Ohio State is the hottest team, Mississippi State’s lone loss just came to the No. 1 school, TCU’s Big 12 resume is probably the most impressive, and Baylor is the only team to beat TCU. 

That translates to endless discussion, something the committee has likely invested countless hours in while trying to sort through. Thankfully, it still has many meaningful games to watch and results to explore.

But if the season were to end today—and thank goodness it does not—committee chairman Jeff Long would require bodyguards ‘round the clock following his top-four explanation. In its current form, it's an absolute mess.

For all we know, however, two of the teams currently fighting for one spot could both get in. Although the top three spots are spoken for by deserving teams outside of this debate, chaos often comes when you least expect it. As we wait for chaos above, we also search for clarity below.

Good luck with this one, committee.

Can Somebody Give Marshall a Hug?

Chris Tilley/Associated Press

It has become abundantly clear that no result for Marshall will be good enough to crack the Top 25.

This season, Doc Holliday’s team has outscored its opponents 471 to 163. It has not lost, winning every game by at least two touchdowns and all but two games by at least three touchdowns. And yet, given the lackluster schedule, it’s not good enough. 

Even when No. 25 Minnesota lost at home—albeit to a surging Ohio State team—the Thundering Herd were unable to overtake the Gophers in the poll. Minnesota, with an extra loss on its resume, didn’t budge from its position.

That’s really all you have to say when it comes to Marshall and the uphill climb each team outside of the Power Five faces while jockeying for a position. It’s not a knock on Minnesota directly, but rather an honest evaluation of how the committee seems to view these teams that are simply trying to make an appearance.

Although Long acknowledged that these schools are being discussed, they’re not being brought up by enough members of the group to warrant a place in the rankings.

"

Jeff Long: "We talked a lot about Marshall, Boise State, Colorado State, Memphis, Northern Illinois" Talking about top Group of 5 team..

— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoAP) November 19, 2014"

With no meaningful games for Marshall or Colorado State on the horizon, there’s no reason to assume this trend will alter course. 

One of these two teams will be playing in a meaningful bowl game as part of the new agreement. With no appearances likely for either squad moving forward, however, we might have to wait until the very last day to see which one ultimately hears its name called.