National Championship Odds for College Football's Top 10 Teams After Week 3
Three weeks into the season, we have already seen three teams from the Associated Press Preseason Top 10 lose and a fourth (UCLA) drop down the rankings due to poor form.
The result is a reordered Top 10, a ranking of teams that are all undefeated but have varying chances of making and winning the first ever College Football Playoff.
The odds on this list were created using a simple hypothetical formula: Were the season (from this point forward) played X more times, Team Y would win the national championship once. Of course, deciding the answer to that formula can get abstract, but it was the guiding principle used for this piece.
In trying to decide that answer—abstract as it may be—the primary factors under consideration were talent, experience, coaching, how the team has looked thus far and schedule difficulty.
That last point is of particular importance. These odds do not reflect how a team would fare in a four-team playoff, necessarily. They first reflect how likely a team is to even make a four-team playoff, and then they reflect how the team in question would fare.
Sound off below and let me know what you think.
Note: As explained above, these odds were created by the author. They are not representative of real betting odds, which are designed under a different motive (i.e., to attract action on a certain side). They are purely hypothetical.
10. Ole Miss
1 of 10
Championship Odds: 30-1
Team Breakdown
Ole Miss has a championship-caliber defense and an offense with a championship gear, something few other teams can boast.
If Bo Wallace plays like he did last week against Louisiana-Lafayette (23-of-28, 316 yards, four touchdowns, one interception), this team should have a shot against anybody. The defense is one of the 10 best in the country, but the offense needs a modicum of consistency.
Wallace can throw a team into a game, but he can also throw one out of it. A national title contender can not afford the latter to happen.
A lot is resting on Wallace's right shoulder.
Schedule Breakdown
Unfortunately, Ole Miss has a championship-hobbling schedule that includes four of the top eight teams in the country:
- October 4: vs. No. 2 Alabama
- October 11: at No. 6 Texas A&M
- October 25: at No. 8 LSU
- November 1: vs. No. 5 Auburn
It doesn't help that the four hardest games on Ole Miss' schedule come in couplings—i.e., that they're played back-to-back. Alabama and LSU are notoriously physical opponents, and Texas A&M and Auburn are offenses you don't want to face with a tired defense.
Even with a shot against anybody, it's tough to see the Rebels going 11-1 (or even 10-2) to win the SEC West and conference title.
Possible? Sure. But tough to see.
9. Notre Dame
2 of 10
Championship Odds: 25-1
Team Breakdown
Struggling to beat Purdue can be forgiven—for Notre Dame and no other team. Even in their 12-0 season of 2012, the Irish barely beat the Boilermakers. Getting out of Saturday 3-0 was all that mattered for Brian Kelly's squad, and even though it didn't look great, it escaped.
Everett Golson has been a revelation, and Brian VanGorder's aggressive defense looks like a success. Jaylon Smith is as good as any linebacker in the nation, and the team appears to have rallied around the off-field turmoil (whereby five players were suspended during an academic probe) instead of crumbling in its face.
One could argue that this is the best team of the Kelly era.
Schedule Breakdown
Even without a true conference tie-in, it's hard to find a harder schedule for any team this side of the SEC West.
The Irish still have five games against teams in or just outside the AP Top 25—No. 16 Stanford, North Carolina (which comes in at No. 26), No. 1 Florida State, No. 15 Arizona State and No. 17 USC—and a couple more tough ones against Louisville and Navy. Without a conference championship, they would likely have to finish the year 11-1 to make the playoff.
The Florida State, Navy, Arizona State and USC games are all on the road, and Stanford definitely has the horses to win a close game in South Bend. In a vacuum, these odds would be higher, but Notre Dame's schedule is far tougher than it was last year.
8. LSU
3 of 10
Championship Odds: 22-1
Team Breakdown
LSU has not allowed a point since the first possession of the third quarter against Wisconsin, having now pitched a shutout for more than 147 consecutive minutes of game time.
But Sam Houston State and UL-Monroe are a far cry from the teams in the SEC West, and even Wisconsin was playing (for one reason or another) with its best player, Melvin Gordon, on the bench. Things will get a lot tougher for this rebuilt Tigers defense, which has a lot to feel good about but still has some reasons for concern.
LSU will be LSU, but the last two years, that has meant 10 wins and staying competitive each week. It hasn't meant national title contention. This team is talented, but even with a No. 8 ranking, it feels too young to win 11 or 12 games this season.
Schedule Breakdown
Of the four road games remaining on the schedule, two opponents (Texas A&M and Auburn) are ranked in the AP top six, and two (Florida and Arkansas) received AP votes. Home games include losable affairs against Alabama, Ole Miss and even Mississippi State in Week 4.
We'll learn more against Mississippi State this weekend and a lot more during back-to-back road games at Auburn and Florida. If it escapes all of that undefeated, we can talk about LSU as a title contender.
Even then, however, there would still be a long way to go.
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7. Baylor
4 of 10
Championship Odds: 16-1
Team Breakdown
Baylor's offense has hummed along despite injuries the first three weeks, scoring 45 points without Bryce Petty in the season-opener, 70 points without Petty and most of its receivers in Week 2 and 63 points with Petty but sans its receivers in Week 3.
The defense took a step back on Saturday, allowing Buffalo to put up 394 yards and 21 points, but those totals are a bit misleading. For the season, the Bears defense still ranks No. 2 in the country with 3.40 yards allowed per play.
That appears to be the biggest difference between this year's Baylor team and last year's (and 2012's): The defense is more than just decent. Especially along the line, where Shawn Oakman is an All-America candidate and the supporting cast is solid. This unit can force negative plays and beat teams with its physicality.
Schedule Breakdown
After a Week 4 bye, Baylor has road games at Iowa State and Texas. Assuming it wins those—which it should—the only other road games on the schedule are at West Virginia and Oklahoma.
Both of those games will be tough—one much more than the other—but other than that, Baylor's schedule sets up well with home games against TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Especially compared to the SEC West schedules, that doesn't hinder its chances.
Art Briles has an offense that is just as good as ever, perhaps the best defenses he's ever coached and a winnable conference.
It's not hard to see this team going far.
6. Texas A&M
5 of 10
Championship Odds: 20-1
Team Breakdown
Texas A&M's Week 1 win at South Carolina looked great at the time but even better after Week 3, when the Gamecocks beat Georgia. East Carolina—whom South Carolina beat the week prior—also won at Virginia Tech, a team that beat Ohio State by 14 points in Columbus.
In short, South Carolina might be better than we gave it credit for. And if that's the case, Texas A&M is really, really, really good.
We know about the offense, which appears to be in good hands under quarterback Kenny Hill and a deep stable of skill players. But the biggest difference between this year and last might be the defense, especially defensive end Myles Garrett, who is already two sacks away (six) from Jadeveon Clowney's SEC freshman record (eight).
"I didn't know he had this kind of pass rush ability in terms of his power, speed and these counter moves," said Aggies defensive coordinator Mark Snyder, per Bruce Feldman of FoxSports.com. "It's pretty freakish. He's so twitchy. He's not just some straight-line (fast) guy. He can dip and rip, and bend the corner like I've never [seen]."
Three weeks into the season, one could argue that no team has looked better than Texas A&M.
In fact, that's exactly what I'd argue.
Schedule Breakdown
Texas A&M's form, however, does allow one to ignore the seven-game stretch it plays from October 4 to the end of the season, a run that includes five top-20 opponents plus a road trip to Mississippi State.
The Aggies play at Alabama and Auburn—a pair of top-five teams with impactful home crowds—and home opponents include Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU. The Rebels very nearly beat them last season, and both sets of Tigers did. (LSU beat them in 2012, as well.)
Life is tough in the SEC West. Texas A&M is good enough to survive it (and win the CFP), but it isn't worth banking on that quite yet.
Let's see how long the defense can hold up.
5. Auburn
6 of 10
Championship Odds: 15-1
Team Breakdown
Auburn was choppy against Arkansas and San Jose State, but for the most part, it looks every bit as good as last year's national runner-up (and definitely better than that team did through two games).
The Razorbacks offense found some success in the first half on the Plains, but after seeing Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams run rampant through Texas Tech on Saturday, that appears forgivable. Instead of jumping on Auburn's defense for showing some holes in Week 1, we should commend it for a stout second half.
Beyond that, the offensive line has been predictably dominant, receiver D'haquille Williams has been better than advertised, and Nick Marshall, who struggled a bit against San Jose State, remains a Heisman candidate with an SEC title on his resume.
There is plenty to feel good about on the Plains.
Schedule Breakdown
This weekend is when the schedule turns. Other than nonconference games against Louisiana Tech and Sanford, the rest of the schedule features exclusively tough opponents—frequently away from home:
- September 18 at No. 18 Kansas State
- October 4 vs. No. 8 LSU
- October 11 at No. 27 Mississippi State
- October 25 vs. No. 18 South Carolina
- November 1 at No. 10 Ole Miss
- November 8 vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
- November 15 at No 13 Georgia
- November 29 at No. 3 Alabama
Two-loss teams are rarely (if ever) national title contenders, and it's hard to see how anyone—even a team as talented and well-coached at Auburn—can navigate this schedule 11-1. At that point, it would still have to win the SEC Championship Game and two playoff games.
Assuming the Tigers did make it to that last chapter, it would be hard to bet against them. If they finish the year 11-1 or better, win the conference and make the national semifinal, they would probably be my pick to win it all—even ahead of (ostensible No. 1 seed) Florida State. I just don't think they'll be making it that far.
This schedule is harder than hard.
4. Oklahoma
7 of 10
Championship Odds: 8-1
Team Breakdown
Oklahoma looked as good as you'd want it to look against its first real test of the season, beating Tennessee at home, 34-10.
I have gone on the record with my dubiousness of the Sooners, and although I feel better about them now than I did before the season, a lot of that uncertainty remains. I am still wary of Trevor Knight in a big game, for example, and don't trust him to always play well.
Having said that…
Schedule Breakdown
…There aren't many big games left on OU's schedule.
Back-to-back road trips to West Virginia and TCU look harder now than they did in the preseason, but Bob Stoops' team gets a bye between those trips to rest up.
If it survives those games, its three hardest opponents (Baylor, Oklahoma State and Kansas State) all come to Norman, which makes for a tough road win.
Texas, as always, will be played on a neutral field, but the 1-2 Longhorns do not look like a real threat. Tyrone Swoopes has looked decent, but he does not have the arm to test Oklahoma's defense—a defense that might well be the best in the country.
This team proved how good it could be in a one-game sample against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year, and few (if any) power teams have an easier road to the CFP. Fair or not, that makes Oklahoma one of the betting favorites to win the national title.
3. Oregon
8 of 10
Championship Odds: 4-1
Team Breakdown
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer picked Oregon to win the national championship before the season, pinning his hopes on the obvious—i.e., quarterback Marcus Mariota and the explosive offense he leads.
But, as he explained, he was also taking a flier on the defense:
"This is where this prediction takes a leap of faith. By picking Oregon to win the national championship, I'm banking on defensive linemen Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner realizing their immense potential. Each is powerful, checking in at least 6’7” and 290 pounds. Thus far, however, their play hasn’t matched the foundation.
"
In the second half against Michigan State, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner were the two best players (sans Mariota) on the field, an encouraging sign for Kramer's prediction. The defensive line stepped up where it had previously failed, and even though Michigan State's depleted offensive line is not as good as Stanford's, watching that unit dominate the point of attack made 2014 feel different.
Schedule Breakdown
The three hardest opponents on Oregon's schedule are Stanford, UCLA and Washington. The Cardinal have already lost this season (and travel to Autzen Stadium), and UCLA and Washington have looked vulnerable despite respective 3-0 records.
Arizona State has been the second-best Pac-12 team on the whole, but it does not appear on Oregon's schedule (nor does it have the defensive horses to keep up with Oregon's offense). If either the Sun Devils or USC win the Pac-12 South and play Oregon for the conference title, bet the over on how many yards the Ducks rush for.
The stars have been aligning in Oregon's favor these first three weeks, perhaps more so than they have for any other team.
This could finally be the year where it gets over the hump.
2. Alabama
9 of 10
Championship Odds: 8-1
Team Breakdown
Alabama has looked good despite some prevalent questions, and its near-loss against West Virginia looks better in hindsight (i.e., after WVU won at Maryland) than it did at the time.
Blake Sims has not blown the doors off the quarterback competition, but he has been smart and efficient and reliable. Especially when he's using his legs—something unique to an Alabama quarterback—he looks capable of guiding this team to an SEC and national title.
More than that, Sims is working with a deep cast of playmakers that is probably the best in the country.
Kenyan Drake joins T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry to form a trio of capable running backs, Amari Cooper is an early Biletnikoff favorite at receiver and the offensive line has looked good. The defense has problems in the secondary, but the entire two-deep is made up of blue-chip recruits. With time, they should all fall in line.
The only question now is whether they have the time to do so.
Schedule Breakdown
Like the rest of the teams in the SEC West, Alabama has a brutal schedule, starting this week against Florida, then continuing after a bye with games at Ole Miss and Arkansas and home against Texas A&M.
After that comes road games at Tennessee and LSU before ending the season with home games against Mississippi State and Auburn.
Alabama has the best roster on paper of any team in the division, and Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are proven commodities on the sideline. If anyone can navigate the SEC West with one loss (maximum), beat the SEC East champion and win two playoff games, the Crimson Tide are the safest and most likely bet.
But compared with what Oklahoma, Oregon and Florida State must face to reach the playoff, the SEC West schedule feels more like the 12 Labours of Hercules than a passable slate of games.
Alabama is obviously capable, but winning it all will be tough.
1. Florida State
10 of 10
Championship Odds: 3-1
Team Breakdown
Florida State has not looked as dominant as expected during its first two games, but 2-0 is 2-0. Especially now that Oklahoma State has crept into the Top 25, Florida State should be proud of its record and feel good about its national title chances.
The pass-rushing problems have raised eyebrows, as has the inability of Austin Barron to replace Bryan Stork at center. Unlike last year, this team might have an Achilles heel in the trenches. But do you really want to bet against Jimbo Fisher fixing those things?
It hasn't looked pretty so far, but we know where this team's ceiling lies.
Jameis Winston is still the quarterback, and his career record is still 16-0.
Karlos Williams is still a running back you don't want to tackle, Rashad Greene is still a receiver most teams can't cover and this secondary is still, in my estimation, the best in college football.
In short, this is still Florida State.
Schedule Breakdown
FSU's three toughest opponents are Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida, and all of those teams come to Tallahassee. Its toughest road game (at Louisville) looks a lot easier now than it did before Week 3, as does a potential ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech.
The Seminoles have the easiest path to the CFP of any major contender, and getting there is more than half the battle. Once there, this team will have to play better in the trenches (on both sides of the ball) than it did in Weeks 1-2, but it definitely has the bodies to do that.
If you played this season out three times, Florida State would almost definitely win it all once. Even saying that might be conservative.
A lot of things are working in its favor.
Note: All rankings refer to the Week 4 AP Poll
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
