You're in Las Vegas and a man, properly credentialed, approaches you with a contest. Pick any eight quarterbacks in all of college football, and if the entire list passes for 3,000-plus yards, he'll pay you out a tidy cash prize.
A guy who throws for 4,000 yards does nothing for you over a guy with 3,001. All you need are the eight safest bets to cross that 3k threshold—everything else is moot.
How would you put together the list?
It's a pretty complicated question. What do you do with Johnny Manziel? How confident can you be that he'll even play this season? Are you willing to risk your wager on such an important unknown?
Of the guys who aren't being investigated by the NCAA, don't there have to be eight better sure-fire bets?
It's not as easy as it sounds.