2012 College Football Polls: Will Week 7 BCS Rankings Have South Carolina No. 2?

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2012 College Football Polls: Will Week 7 BCS Rankings Have South Carolina No. 2?
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The official 2012 college football BCS rankings to complete Week 6 will be revealed Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The following data is a simulation of the BCS rankings. It projects the latest tendencies for the USA Today Coaches poll and the upcoming Harris Interactive poll. Each of these polls provides one-third of the BCS rankings.

The final one-third is calculated through six independent computer rankings. Each has its own biases and tendencies in ranking teams. Some of this will be noted below the following calculations. The computers' scores will be adjusted for results and strength of schedule.

For each team, the BCS drops the highest and lowest rankings from the six computers, and uses the four remaining rankings for the final one-third score.

The following is an estimation of the BCS rankings following Saturday’s results in order to anticipate Sunday’s BCS show on ESPN.  

 

BCS Ranking/Team         Coaches Poll           Harris Poll       Computers

1.  Alabama       .9834             .9993                   .9809                   .9700

2.  S. Carolina    .9047             .9119                   .8923                   .9100

3.  Oregon          .9026             .9566                  .9412                    .8100

4.  Florida           .8472             .7898                  .8017                    .9500

5.  Notre Dame  .7899             .7810                  .7687                    .8200

6.  W. Virginia     .7717             .8782                  .8264                    .6100

7.  Kansas St.      .7412             .8244                  .8191                    .5800

8.  LSU                 .6342              .6515                  .6612                    .5900

9.  Oregon St.    .5419              .4685                  .5273                    .6300

10. Oklahoma    .5060             .5912                  .4967                    .4300

11. USC                .4985             .6372                  .5683                     .2900 

12. Georgia         .4772             .4887                 .5329                     .4100

13. Florida St.     .4397             .5553                 .6038                     .1600

14. Stanford       .4372             .3913                 .4403                     .3200

15. Texas            .4057             .4495                 .4477                     .3200

16. Clemson       .3695             .4380                 .4904                     .1800

17. Miss. St.        .3128             .3783                 .3801                     .1800

18. Louisville      .2914             .4258                 .3784                     .0700

19. Rutgers         .2103             .2780                 .2730                     .0800

20. Cincinnati     .1596             .1367                 .1920                     .1500

 

Computer Love

Last week, the computers were generally favorable or helpful to Florida, Notre Dame and Oregon State. They should continue to figure strongly and receive a boost with the BCS rankings.

The computers have also shown strong support for Alabama, South Carolina and Stanford.

It appears South Carolina has an excellent chance of passing Oregon because of the computer rankings, which will give it a much better strength of schedule rating. This assumes that South Carolina can take third in both the Coaches and Harris polls. If South Carolina takes third in one poll and fourth in the other, Oregon could squeak past on the strength of second in both human polls.

 

Computer Hate

West Virginia was disrespected last week by the computers, but their win at Texas should give them a boost to land anywhere from four to six in the BCS rankings.

Florida State will take a big hit from the human polls and the computers. They could slide out of the top 15.

Georgia was dominated so thoroughly they will feel their biggest drop from the human polls.

 

Computer Biases and Tendencies

The Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester rankings may be the most controversial of the computers in comparison to the human polls. In the figures above, half of its scores were dropped, usually for ranking teams too low. These rankings are very favorable for the Big-12 conference, ranking it ahead of the SEC, followed by the Big Ten and Pac-12. Last week it named the Oregon State Beavers at No. 1 with the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8

Richard Billingsley’s rankings are often more comparable to the human polls, but it can be a Maverick as well. It loves Pac-12 teams, ranking five of its schools in the top 15. Last week it liked Alabama at No. 1, Oregon at No. 3 and South Carolina at No. 4 and Notre Dame at No. 5.

Wes Colley’s Matrix promotes itself as “bias-free.” It has some similarities with Anderson & Hester with its conference rankings. The top three teams last week were Oregon State, Florida and Notre Dame. Oregon was at No. 13.

Kenneth Massey’s ratings also differ from the human polls, but it is rarely one of the computers that has to drop its score. Last week, it led off its rankings with Alabama, Texas, Florida and Oregon, but had West Virginia at No. 14.

Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, perhaps the most renowned over several years, can be similar to Massey’s ratings. One of its unique features is pure points, which claims to predict more accurately with teams’ scoring margins. Its top five last week featured Alabama, Texas, Florida, South Carolina and Oregon. It also had Oregon State all the way down at No. 26.

The final computer is Peter Wolfe’s ratings, which has no data at this time, and is not expected to provide information until Oct. 14.

 

Click here for a review of last week's BCS rankings simulation

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