So you want a BCS title game rematch? Of course you do. But be careful what you wish for.
The general consensus is the national championship semi-finals are taking place on Nov. 5 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. But as a famous voice in college sports would say, "Not so fast my friend!"
The LSU-Alabama contest will no doubt be a wonderful football game. I expect nothing less than a barn-burning 24-21 affair. But looking to the future, with some improbable math, the distance looks fuzzy. I'm not completely certain on the SEC three-way tie breaking rules, but the way I interpret them, the improbable is actually not impossible.
I am here to show you exactly how Alabama could play for a BCS title against SEC West foe Arkansas.
LSU Defeats Alabama
A very possible scenario, the Bayou Bengals could come into Tuscaloosa and continue their recent dominance over the Crimson Tide to win the so-called "Game of the Century."
I'm not sure exactly how this game outweighs that of Ohio State-Michigan of 2006, or even Ohio State-Texas of the same year, at least not from a pregame standpoint. Nonetheless, it has its billing, and we'll all be tuned in.
Let's say for argument's sake, the Tide falters 24-21 by a last second field goal from the Tigers.
Arkansas Wins Out
Arkansas plays Vandy, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU to close the season. With wins over each school prior to LSU, the Hogs could see their stock rise within the BCS standings. If LSU is still No. 1 when Nov. 25 comes around, Arkansas stands to gain a ton of ground in the BCS with a win.
Again, for argument's sake, Arkansas wins out. They defeat LSU, as they accomplished last season, and move into the SEC title game by jumping Alabama in the BCS at No. 2.
A Big XII Catastrophe
Oklahoma State obviously controls their own destiny. As much could be said for the Kansas State Wildcats, but who really believes they could pull off another magical season?
Well, in fact, I do.
Oklahoma will likely defeat Kansas State, but don't overlook the Wildcats. Because if the Pokes of OK State do, they can slip in on you and work their way into a win. Oklahoma falls to Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys have just one loss. But the win over Oklahoma might not be quite enough after the fall the Sooners took following their loss to Texas Tech. This leaves Oklahoma State at No. 4.
Oregon Goes to, but Loses, the Pac-12 Title
Say, the Ducks run the table. Then Arizona State sits with two losses on the season, but still takes their team to the Pac-12 title game because USC can't play for the title.
Well, Oregon loses the Pac-12 Championship and the trip to the Rose Bowl with two losses.
Certainly, the BCS can't afford to put a team in the title game who lost in the conference championship, right?
Boise State and Clemson Lose...To Anyone
Not that I think Boise State would crack the top two spots either way, the Broncos would make it easier on the BCS to just lose and keep them out all together. But Chris Peterson's bunch is pretty darn good. That Kellen Moore fellow is no slouch, either. Just ask Georgia.
Clemson has a pretty easy road to an undefeated season, but you never know with the fighting Dabo's. I've given them a lot of credit this season, but a rematch with Frank Beamer is never good, and the Tigers could falter to South Carolina or Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship.
Alabama Finishes 11-1
If the Crimson Tide finds a way to finish 11-1 on the year, they could very easily see a huge gain in the polls. After all, a month remains in the season following LSU, and the Tide will not drop too far away by losing just once to the No. 1 team in the country. Maybe to No. 4 or 5. But once Oklahoma State, Boise State, Clemson and LSU lose, the Tide could see itself move into the No. 3 spot by championship weekend.
Refresh now, and let's take note. Arkansas wins the SEC Championship, beating the winner of this week's Florida-Georgia game.
Stanford and Clemson lose in the final weeks of the season.
Oklahoma State's loss is to Kansas State, who could easily be 9-3 by season's end.
Boise State falls to anyone left on their rinky-dink schedule.
Alabama runs the table following a last second loss to LSU on Nov. 5.
Could the Crimson Tide slip into the No. 1 or No. 2 spot without making the conference championship game? It's happened before, i.e. Nebraska. Could Arkansas and Alabama play for the national championship in the Superdome?
Fuzzy math aside, the answer is absolutely.
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