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Due to the weak Pac-12 this season, a team from the Big 12 with the same record as Oregon would more than likely make it to the national championship game in New Orleans. Right now there are three teams in the way of the Ducks’ championship dreams; Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners will face off in the final week of the regular season, making for a game that may decide a spot in the national championship. I don’t see the Cowboys being undefeated when that game comes around simply because their remaining schedule is too difficult.
The Cowboys have home games against Baylor, No. 8 Kansas State and No. 9 Oklahoma. Their road games include No. 20 Texas Tech (who just knocked off previously undefeated Oklahoma in Norman, OK) and an overlooked Iowa State team.
Assuming the Cowboys drop one of their games before they take on the Sooners, it is crucial that Oklahoma also loses a game before then.
Oklahoma has the same remaining teams on their schedule with the exception of No. 16 Texas A&M instead of Texas Tech. If the Sooners lose a game, then beat a one-loss Oklahoma State team, both teams would rank below the Ducks.
The one team that is left is Kansas State. Because preseason rankings do mean a lot to the final rankings, a one-loss Kansas State team will likely not be ranked above a one-loss Oregon team.
The Wildcats have arguably the most difficult remaining schedule of any team in the national championship race playing four ranked teams in their remaining five games. Those teams are No. 9 Oklahoma, No, 3 Oklahoma State, No. 16 Texas A&M, No. 24 Texas and Iowa State to finish the season.
My guess is that the Wildcats will be lucky to win three of those, likely dropping at least three games. The remaining Big 12 teams will beat each other up, and the Ducks will need both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to finish with two losses and Kansas State to have at least one loss.