BCS Rankings 2011: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide, Early Betting Preview

The LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide currently occupy the top two spots in the AP Top 25 Poll, as college football pundits await the release of the first BCS standings on Sunday.

All of the rankings will be thrown out the window when the two Southeastern Conference rivals face off against each other in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, November 5, inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Many experts believe that the winner of that game will ultimately face the Oklahoma Sooners in the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans.

Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports book analyst for Caesars Entertainment, has provided me a futures line of Alabama as a 6.5-point home favorite.

I agree with the number as a former sports book supervisor with Cantor Gaming at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, establishing a line that is just a half-point below.

Let's take an early look at this game from a betting perspective.

LSU 24, Alabama 21 in Last Year's Meeting

The LSU Tigers handed the Alabama Crimson Tide their second loss of the season in last year's 24-21 victory as 6.5-point home underdogs.

Professional bettors are going to circle the Tigers finishing that contest with a 433-325 edge in total yards, but also place a check mark next to the plus-two turnover differential they benefited from.

Crimson Tide running back Trent Richardson scored a touchdown, but also was shaken up after reaching the end zone, which caused him to play sparingly the rest of the way.

There's no doubt that senior quarterback Jordan Jefferson will be gearing up for this game since returning from a suspension, as he completed 10-of-13 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown in last year's win.

He offers a dual-threat option under center, which is needed to beat Alabama.

The Crimson Tide will likely want to go off at different odds than the proposed line out of Vegas, as the program failed to cover all three games as 6.5-point favorites in 2010, including two losses in straight-up fashion.

Granted, all three were played away from Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The oddsmakers may have something up their sleeves with that number.

Alabama's Home Record

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 24-1 in their last 25 games played inside Bryant-Denny Stadium, as the defense is allowing just 192.3 yards of total offense in those contests.

The most dominating statistic during that span is the team outscoring opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game.

Since head coach Nick Saban has come on campus, Alabama has been a home favorite of a touchdown or less four times, posting a 2-2 SU record and 1-3 ATS mark.

Ironically enough, the lone spread victory came in a 24-15 win over the LSU Tigers as seven-point favorites on Nov. 7, 2009.

Last year's schedule presented one game that fit the situation, as the Crimson Tide jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead against the Auburn Tigers, only to fall 28-27 as 4.5-point home favorites to the eventual national champion.

LSU's Road Work

The LSU Tigers have garnered a 20-9 record in road games during the Les Miles era.

Coming into this week's games, the program has tallied victories away from the Bayou against Mississippi State and West Virginia, covering the betting odds in each contest.

LSU is 1-3 ATS in the last four meetings with Alabama overall, but has come away with the cash in four of its last five trips to Tuscaloosa.

Alabama Defense

Oddsmakers have great respect for both defenses, but it's clear that the Crimson Tide's unit is held in higher regard with the proposed betting odds.

Alabama has held opponents to just 191.3 yards a game in the first six games, while leading the SEC in rushing and scoring defense.

Opposing quarterbacks have trouble sleeping at night leading up to 'Bama week, as they are completing just 48 percent of their passes.

During the team's national title run in 2009, it led the nation in averaging 5.6 three-and-outs per game.  A trip back to the BCS Championship Game may be in order, as that number is an incredible 6.8 a contest in 2011.

LSU's Stop Unit

LSU cornerback Tyrann Mathieu would be in the Heisman Trophy discussion if he spent some time on the other side of the ball, but he's the leader of a stout defense.

The Tigers come into this week's games ranked in the top 10 in college football in four important categories, including total defense in allowing just 254 yards a game.

It's been a year of dominating performances each week for the unit, holding opponents without a touchdown in 18 of 24 possible quarters.

The offense has also benefited from the defense's play, converting 14 turnovers into nine scoring drives, including eight touchdowns.

AJ McCarron, Alabama QB

AJ McCarron has taken a hold of the starting quarterback position for the No. 2 team in the country, completing a career-high 23 passes in last week's 34-0 win over the Vanderbilt Commodores as 29-point home favorites.

Coming into this week's contest versus Ole Miss on the road, the sophomore will enter with an impressive streak of not throwing an interception in 127 pass attempts.

He also seems to have found a favorite target in receiver Marquis Maze, as the duo connected nine times for 93 yards last week.

It's important to point out that he hasn't really been pressured in the second half of games this year, as the team has led by double digits in each game at the break.

That might not be the case against a different animal.

LSU's Quarterback Duo

The LSU Tigers have the luxury of having two quarterbacks that are capable of beating any team in the country due to the talent around them.

Jordan Jefferson has worked his way back into the playoff, following an early season suspension. 

Jarrett Lee is completing over 60 percent of his passes and has thrown eight interceptions and just a single interception thus far.

The senior quickly quieted the skeptics this year in guiding the Tigers to a 40-27 neutral-site win over the Oregon Ducks as three-point underdogs.

I'm quick to point out that he wasn't exactly the key to victory, completing just 10-of-22 passes for 98 yards, but the scoreboard agreed with the performance.

One important factor that can't be dismissed is Alabama will have to prepare for two different quarterbacks, which is bigger than the casual fan realizes.

Fourth Quarter

The fourth quarter might be renamed in Tuscaloosa if running back Trent Richardson continues on his current pace.

First off, he's actually 70 yards ahead of former running back Mark Ingram's pace when he captured the 2009 Heisman Trophy.

Secondly, the team has outscored opponents by a significant 52-8 margin in the final 15 minutes of games this season, which has been spurred by a 523-116 margin on the ground.

Bettors will likely be holding a winning ticket if the Crimson Tide enter the final frame with any sort of lead.

LSU is no slouch in finishing a game as well, allowing just 21 fourth-quarter points, with 14 coming against Oregon in the season opener when already leading by a 33-13 score.

Early Prediction

At this time, Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban has had five opportunities to gain SEC revenge during his time on campus, scoring spread victories in each one.

Many will remember the most recent event, registering a 32-13 blowout victory over the Florida Gators in the conference championship as 4.5-point underdogs in 2009.

Saban left Gators quarterback Tim Tebow crying on the sidelines after that one.

It's important to point out that the closest margin of victory in any of these revenge-minded contests came against the LSU Tigers in 2008, slipping past them with a 27-21 overtime victory as three-point road favorites.

If both teams come in healthy, Alabama is certainly the play at any odds below the perceived line of six, while LSU looms dangerous above that number.

I'll be revisiting the game in a couple weeks.