BCS Perfect Storm: Why This Season May See the System Collapse

Chad ScottCorrespondent IIOctober 6, 2011

SCOTTSDALE, AZ - JANUARY 11:  Head coach Gene Chizik of the Auburn Tigers sits with the (L-R) Associated Press, Football Writers of America, MacArthur Bowl and the Coaches trophys during a press conference for the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game at the JW Marriott Camelback Inn on January 11, 2011 in Scottsdale, Arizona.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Boise State, TCU and Utah (up until their recent move to the PAC-12), have been trying in vain to chip away at the inherent unfairness of the BCS and how it picks a champion.  However, these relatively small schools are not enough to bring the BCS to its knees when the rest of the country finds it acceptable that an undefeated Boise State or TCU does not get a chance at the National Championship. 

But, there are some rumblings on the horizon of a possible monsoon that could rain on the BCS parade.  This season, more then any other in the past, we have seen an unusually large amount of teams remain undefeated.  15, to be exact and though one undefeated team will fall this weekend when Texas and Oklahoma face each other, the rest will likely remain undefeated.  However, an exciting or frightening trend is starting to emerge for the future of the system, depending on how you look at it.  

What happens at the end of the season when there are six undefeated teams? Here is the hypothetical breakdown.

Well, arguably the winner of LSU/Alabama will go to the BCS national championship to play against an undefeated Oklahoma.  We all can agree on that, I would assume.

Then the Rose Bowl takes an undefeated Stanford and puts them up against undefeated Wisconsin.

The Orange Bowl invites go to undefeated Clemson and one loss West Virginia.

Finally, to round out bowls with at least one undefeated team, we see Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl to play Oklahoma State.

Do you see where I am going with this? 

Let's assume No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 5 Boise State and No. 7 Clemson all win. Four undefeated teams. Oh, and for good measure, Houston remains undefeated and is also in the top ten at that point.

Side note: The fact that Houston is currently 5-0 but not in the top 25 is a travesty, especially when there are two-loss teams ahead of them, and they are unlikely to get a BCS bowl even if they remain undefeated.  The same goes for Texas Tech, but I digress.

So five undefeated teams at the end of the season and only three of them were given the opportunity to play in a BCS bowl. Even a plus-one game in this situation would not give you a true national champion.

To add even more insult to injury, what if the AP votes Wisconsin to No. 1 ahead of Oklahoma in the final poll so the AP champion doesn't match the BCS champion?  That happened 2004. Then what about Clemson or Boise State?  Do they get nothing but their bowl wins? The difference in pay out is very significant between the National Championship and the Fiesta Bowl. 

This is almost too good to be true, but it can happen, and looking at the teams currently in this scenario, they are all very likely to go undefeated.  If it does happen, watch for those anti-trust lawsuits, congressional inquiries and a general public outcry against the system, because this time, its not a BCS-buster being left out.  It's a BCS powerhouse.  

Current undefeated teams, their rank and their conference:

Rank    Team    Conference
1   Louisiana State   SEC
2   Alabama   SEC
3   Oklahoma   Big 12
4   Wisconsin   Big 10
5   Boise State   MWC
6   Oklahoma State   Big 12
7   Stanford   PAC-12
8   Clemson   ACC
11   Texas   Big 12
12   Michigan   Big 10
13   Georgia Tech   ACC
19   Illinois   Big 10
20   Kansas State   Big 12
27   Houston   C-USA
29 Texas Tech Big 12