Boise State Football: Odds for National Championship, BCS Bowl

Johnathan CaceCorrespondent ISeptember 22, 2011

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 03:  Kellen Moore #11 of the Boise State Broncos reacts after a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Dome on September 3, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Broncos were a missed field goal away from getting into a BCS Bowl game last season and have been to two Fiesta Bowls in the past five years.

With a top five ranking in both major polls and a pretty easy schedule ahead of them, Boise State fans are wondering if this is the year they get back into the BCS and possibly receive an invitation to play in the national championship.

Here is a breakdown of the odds for where they end up in the postseason

Non-BCS bowl—15%

This means that Boise loses at least one game this season. There is absolutely no way Boise drops out of the Top 12 without a loss and that would automatically qualify them for a BCS Bowl bid.

Rose Bowl—1%

They took TCU last year and no one in the Big Ten or Pac 12 looks either looks like a title contender or has the schedule to get through unscathed.

Sugar Bowl—25%

It is safe to assume that the SEC will put two teams into the BCS including one in the national championship. They select first this year and will take the next available SEC team and if Boise is available they may try to get the Broncos in a rematch with a better opponent than Georgia.

Chances are they take a team from a Big 6 conference to boost sales, though.

Orange Bowl—40%

This game will in all likelihood have the ACC champion in it. If Virginia Tech wins the conference, the committee would be stupid to not put the Broncos against the Hokies in a rematch of last year’s classic.

Even if they didn’t win the ACC, Boise could still wind up here if there is no big player remaining to take that spot. That would be likely because there are not many elite teams this season and the next best could have two losses.

Fiesta Bowl—9%

Because of the parity in college football, it is unlikely that Boise State drops this far. You would also assume that the Fiesta Bowl does not want to take Boise again unless current No. 1 Oklahoma is playing in it for the second consecutive year for a rematch of the epic 2006 game that started the Broncos’ run to national prominence.

BCS Title—10%

There is a better chance of the top two teams in the country having two losses than having two teams go undefeated in front of Boise. That said there is also a chance that a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team gets into the title game which is why the odds of this happening are so low.