College Football Predictions 2011: 8 Safest Bets for Opening Week

Week 1 of the 2011 college football season kicks off Thursday night in Louisville, Ky., and ends on Labor Day in College Park, Md., with the Miami Hurricanes and Maryland Terrapins kicking things off at 8:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

The first couple weeks of any sport is difficult to wager on—especially college football, with numerous coaching and players changes each year.

Professional handicappers often take the baseball season off in anticipation of the football season and have been dissecting teams for months heading into this week’s action.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the safest games to play from a betting perspective.

North Texas at Florida International (-14), Total 54

The North Texas Mean Green and Florida International Golden Panthers open up the season with a Sun Belt Conference contest, ultimately causing both offenses to be more conservative than they normally would be. 

The "under" is 10-6 in Florida International’s last 16 conference games, including three of four home contests in 2010.

Last year’s meeting in Denton, Texas, resulted in a 34-10 road win for the Panthers, staying below the 48.5-point total. 

Pick: Under 54

No. 20 Mississippi State (-28) at Memphis, Total 50

The Mississippi State Bulldogs open another season against the Memphis Tigers and will be looking for a similar 49-7 win they posted last year as 21.5-point home favorites.

The Tigers were one of the worst teams in all of college football a year ago,—posting a 1-11 straight-up record—but they came away with a 5-7 ATS mark.

Three schools (Texas, USC, Wisconsin) laid more than 20 points on the road last year in Week 1, and all failed to cover the number.

The Bulldogs will likely keep things very vanilla in the opener with upcoming matchups against Auburn and LSU on deck.

Pick: Memphis +28

Bowling Green at Idaho (-7), Total 53.5

The Bowling Green Falcons and Idaho Vandals played one of the more exciting games you’ll ever see in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl. The Vandals ended up with a 43-42 win as an one-point favorite.

Traveling to Moscow, Idaho, is no easy task for a Falcons squad that has 19 true freshman, 19 redshirt freshmen and 20 sophomores on the roster. Playing a season-opening contest at an elevation of 2,579 feet will also present a problem in the second half.

Idaho has tallied a 3-0 ATS mark against MAC opponents and is 9-1 ATS in non-conference play over the last two years.

Pick: Idaho -7

Northwestern at Boston College (-3), Total 45

The Northwestern Wildcats have been making an offseason push for fifth-year quarterback Dan Persa to gain early recognition as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. He will be tested early in facing a Boston College Eagles defensive unit that features Butkus Award runner-up Luke Kuechly at linebacker.

I see some value in playing the total in this contest since the Eagles are a dominating force against the run, but they will be tested by the Wildcats through the air. 

Boston College had only two of its games go over the total last year, dropping a 24-21 home game against Maryland (41 total) and a 44-17 road loss to North Carolina State (47.5 total). The important similarity of these two contests was facing legitimate quarterbacks in Danny O’Brien and Russell Wilson, respectively.

Pick: Over 45

No. 15 TCU (-6) at Baylor, Total 56

TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson will open up his 11th season against the Baylor Bears, and that will likely showcase his defense in a positive light. In the three meetings since the 2006 season, the Horned Frogs have allowed a total of 17 points.

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III is one of the more electrifying players in all of college football, but he threw for just 164 yards on 28 attempts in last year’s 45-10 road loss in Forth Worth as 21-point underdogs.

Sophomore signal-caller Casey Pachall will take over for Andy Dalton in the TCU huddle, which—in my eyes—will keep this contest well under the posted total.

Pick: Under 56

SMU at No. 9 Texas A&M (-16), Total 56

Somebody needs to tell the lines-maker that the SMU Mustangs are not afraid of knocking helmets with quality opponents. Head coach June Jones enters his fourth year in Dallas after leading his squad to spread victories over Texas Tech and TCU in 2011.

The Mustangs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, while covering three of the last four meetings in this series.

Texas A&M closed the 2010 season in impressive fashion, but will be coming in with a 1-6 ATS record in season-openers. 

Aggies head coach Mike Sherman will also be facing his first legitimate threat in opening a season in College Station, as the team has played host to Arkansas State, New Mexico and Stephen Austin the previous three years.

Pick: SMU +16

Colorado State (-6) at New Mexico, Total 53

The New Mexico Lobos' best shot of winning its first three games is in this contest; they face Arkansas and Texas Tech the following two weeks. 

It’s also important to note that the program will not be opening up against the likes of Oregon, Texas A&M or TCU like the past three years.

Colorado State tallied a 38-14 win as 15-point home favorites last year, but this series has been dominated by the underdog covering in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Tie in that trend with the Rams' 1-9 ATS mark as a road favorite, and you have a dangerous home underdog in the season-opener.

Pick: New Mexico +6

South Florida at No. 18 Notre Dame (-10), Total 46.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are normally a fade for me in terms of betting, but second-year head coach Brian Kelly has some talent in South Bend.

Professional handicappers have taken notice of the Irish's defense limiting its last four opponents to just 233.3 yards per game to end the season. The numbers were compiled against some talented teams, including Utah, USC and Miami.

South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels is talented—but he also likes to turn the ball over. He threw 11 touchdowns against 13 interceptions in 2010.

The Bulls failed to cover any of their three losses as underdogs last year, and that streak will continue in the 2011 season-opener.

Pick: Notre Dame -10