College Football 2011: Ranking Last Year's Top 50 as Better or Worse This Year

Every season, we hope our team takes significant strides forward, rather than falling backward with a worse record and poor performances.

In other words, we hope for progress.

Taking into account things such as attrition, experience and strength of schedule, we can take a stab at forecasting which teams will move up the food chain and which ones will head further toward the bottom.

This is a list of last season's Top 50 teams, with the reasons why they will be either better or worse than they were last season.

50. Baylor Bears

The Bears finished last season with a 38-14 loss to Illinois in the Texas Bowl, and are hoping for bigger things than 7-6 record in 2011.

Robert Griffin is as good a dual-threat quarterback as you will find in the country, and every receiver and starting offensive lineman is returning.

Expect the Bears to be better than last season...

49. Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern's Dan Persa was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country last season before he went down with an injury.

Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore provide explosive receiving options for Persa, and Pat Fitzgerald might have a dark horse to win the Legends Division.

The Wildcats will be far better than last season, especially if Persa remains healthy.

48. Illinois Fighting Illini

The Illini saw standout running back Mikel LeShoure and DT Corey Liguet jump to the NFL early.

That being said, there is still plenty of reason for optimism about this team.

Nathan Scheelhaase will only be better than last year at quarterback, and will have a very capable replacement for LeShoure in Jason Ford...the Illini will be better in 2011.

47. Miami Hurricanes

The success of Miami's season boils down to quarterback play.

Jacory Harris is not even close to being consistent, and Stephen Morris has not showed yet that he can be any better than JH12.

With a plethora of athletic talent all over the field, the 'Canes will only go as far as their quarterbacks can take them next season, and that won't be better than last season.

46. Michigan Wolverines

New coach plus new defense equals better team.

Of course, it will be interesting to see how Denard Robinson performs in the new offense, but one can only surmise that he will be just fine.

Michigan fans: There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and the Wolverines are turning the corner in a big way.

Expect them to improve greatly this season.

45. Arizona Wildcats

Wide receiver Juron Criner is projected to play this fall, and outstanding quarterback Nick Foles is back as well.

The problem for the Wildcats in 2011 lies in the fact they have a new offensive line coach teaching a new scheme and only one returning starter.

The Wildcats also have very little experience at defensive end.

All of these question marks will combine for a worse season than 2010.

44. Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs will start former standout quarterback David Carr's little brother, Derek.

Pat Hill is going to see his offense struggle, however, as wide receiver and offensive line have very little experience.

While the Bulldogs should be very good in 2012, expect them to take a step back in 2011.

43. Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions need to find someone who can throw the ball.

If they ever do that, receiver Derek Moye will be a prime target.

If the Lions can produce some sort of pass rush, their strong secondary will lock down most passing games.

Big ifs, but JoePa and his staff have plenty of experience; expect a significant improvement out of PSU.

42. Pitt Panthers

The Panthers are in the middle of a major overhaul.

Offensively, Tino Sunseri and Ray Graham should put up monster numbers in new head coach Todd Graham's wide-open scheme.

The team will lose half of their non-conference games and their first Big East bout.

But expect to see a little more cohesiveness toward the end of the season.

No improvement here.

41. Iowa Hawkeyes

James Vandenberg finally gets to take over the reins of the offense from Ricky Stanzi.

After a disappointing 4-4 record in 2010, the Hawkeyes will need to lean heavily on emerging star Marcus Coker, who burst on the scene with 219 yards in the Hawkeyes' Insight Bowl victory as a true freshman.

The defense lost a ton of talent, but coach Ferentz has been able to reload pretty regularly on defense.

Expect minimal improvement from this squad in 2011.

40. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The bad news for the Raiders is they have no quarterback with much experience at all to take over, and whoever does take over will not have experienced receivers to throw to.

The good news is that the offensive line returns intact.

The defense is in a transition to a new scheme, and will be miserable as usual.

Things will get worse in Lubbock before they get better.

39. USF Bulls

Bulls quarterback BJ Daniels is a dynamic threat to run or pass the ball.

Offensive line is the most disturbing position on offense, as no one is quite sure who will start.

In a less than strong Big East, the Bulls will contend for the title again in 2011, with a better squad.

38. North Carolina Tar Heels

Replacing quarterback T.J. Yates is the biggest chore the Tar Heels face, but Bryn Renner could be just the answer they are searching for.

Defensively, UNC will be one of the toughest teams in the conference, especially along the D-line.

Ends Quinton Coples and Donte Paige-Moss will spend a ton of time in the opposition's backfield, and Tydreke Powell and junior college transfer Sylvester Williams will make it difficult to run the ball.

Don't be surprised at their level of improvement, as the Heels will challenge for the ACC title.

37. USC Trojans

The Trojans must suffer through another season without postseason eligibility.

That won't be enough, however, to stop them from having a solid season.

The Trojans are young, but extremely talented, and guys like quarterback Matt Barkley and safety T.J. McDonald can help bring the inexperienced guys along.

If the Trojans were eligible, they would be in a bowl game.

Lane Kiffin and Co. will show significant improvement.

36. Florida Gators

It's been tough for the Gators.

First Tebow left, then Meyer.

Now Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis will try to turn the Gators into SEC contenders once more.

But it ain't gonna happen this season.

John Brantley has yet to show any significant progress at quarterback, and the new schemes being implemented will make for an interesting beginning to the season.

Another team that will take another step back before they move forward...

35. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Anticipation is sky-high in South Bend, as it should be.

It seems every season the Irish are hyped up and every season they fail to meet those expectations.

With a talented defense led by linebacker Manti Te'o, this will be the season the Irish live up to those expectations.

Running back Cierre Wood will lead a dynamic offense to a BCS game.

34. Navy Midshipmen

Offensively, the Midshipmen will be as good or better than they have been recently.

Defensively, they are going to struggle.

Replacing nine starters is just too much, even for young men who are as tough as these guys.

Expect Navy to slide back down a bit next season.

33. Hawaii Warriors

Bryant Moniz, the latest in a list of prolific passers at Hawaii, is returning.

And that's about it on offense.

The Warriors lose their two leading receivers, their leading rusher and the majority of the offensive line.

It's going to be a long season.

32. San Diego State Aztecs

Watch out, MWC.

The Aztecs have to be taken seriously.

Running back Ronnie Hillman and quarterback Ryan Lindley form one of the most dynamic backfield duos in the country.

SDSU will challenge Boise State, TCU and Air Force for the MWC title.

31. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

On both sides of the ball, the Hurricane return solid depth at almost every position.

At quarterback, G.J. Kinne is set to have a huge year, especially with the receivers and offensive line returning.

Bill Blankenship is a more than adequate replacement for Pitt-bound Todd Graham, and Tulsa may ambush a few teams this season with their depth and talent.

Improvement is almost a given.

30. UConn Huskies

UConn is headed back into relative football obscurity.

Randy Edsall is gone to Maryland; their starting quarterback and top two running backs are both gone.

The defense should be solid, but they will have a tough time winning games without the ability to score.

29. West Virginia Mountaineers

Even with all the turmoil surrounding the departure of their head coach, the Mountaineers will be extremely successful in 2011.

Geno Smith and Co. will flourish in new head coach Dana Holgorsen's offense, and should put up big points once they get the system down.

Definite improvement here.

28. Maryland Terrapins

Maryland may be the surprise team in the ACC.

Randy Edsall has a ton of returning talent to experiment with in his first season with the Terps.

Quarterback Danny O'Brien will have another big season, while Davin Megget will be the breakout star of the team.

Much improvement is in the future for this team.

27. Air Force Falcons

The Falcons' defensive line is somewhat undersized, but extremely speedy.

They have a solid secondary and group of linebackers.

But offense is where they will really thrive.

Tim Jefferson is one of the rare Air Force QBs who can throw as well as run the ball, and the Falcons are going to be tough to stop.

Boise State and TCU had better be prepared for these guys.

26. Utah Utes

Utah is in trouble.

Even with much returning talent, they will struggle with Norm Chow's new offensive scheme to score against tougher defenses than they are used to playing.

Jordan Wynn is recuperating from injury, but is expected back in the fall.

The Utes are going to find the level of competition much stronger than they are used to, and they will take a step back in their inaugural season in the Pac-12.

25. Northern Illinois Huskies

Chandler Harnish is back, and he is a threat to pass or rush on every play.

Leading rusher Chad Spann is gone, but all five offensive linemen are returning, so the offense should be effective.

Defensively, they are going to struggle.

Off-field issues, graduations and injuries have decimated the defensive core, and even though new head coach Dave Doeren is solid with defenses, he will have a tough time getting much out of this one.

This team is in for a long season.

24. Miami (OH) Redhawks

This squad will be at or near the top of the MAC at the end of 2011.

New head coach Don Treadwell has two experienced starters he can choose from in Zac Dysert and Austin Boucher to play quarterback.

The defense returns nine starters, including sack leader Jason Semmes.

Expect some improvement.

23. South Carolina Gamecocks

Even with all the trouble quarterback Stephen Garcia enjoys getting into, he is still a great option to lead a team loaded with stars on offense.

Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery join him on offense, in a unit that will be difficult to slow down.

The Gamecocks boast one of the deepest D-lines in football, including top recruit Jadeveon Clowney.

While they will be an improved squad from last season, it is still difficult to see them winning the SEC championship, but it's not impossible.

22. UCF Knights

Jeff Godfrey is a scary dual-threat quarterback who will be operating behind an extremely effective offensive line.

The Knights will find ways to score points in bunches.

They lost star end Bruce Miller, but return Kemal Ishmael and Josh Robinson in the defensive secondary, both of whom won C-USA honors in 2010.

Improvement looms large for the Knights.

21. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Mike Glennon will take over for Russell Wilson behind a stout offensive line.

Unfortunately, Glennon will not contribute as much as Wilson to the offense right away.

And the Wolfpack defense was atrocious last season, allowing over 30 points per game.

Tom O'Brien will get my vote for Coach of the Year if the Wolfpack improves much at all.

20. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Chris Relf and Vick Ballard form a scary backfield combo for the Bulldogs.

Relf will also have star receiver Chad Bumphis to throw the ball too, and the Bulldogs will be more balanced on offense than they have been in a while.

All three linebackers are gone, and there are some questions on D-line, but Dan Mullen's squad has plenty of talent to fill in the gaps.

They will definitely be a better team in 2011, but the level of competition is brutal in the SEC.

19. Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies are set to pose a serious barrier to Oklahoma's continued Big 12 dominance.

Christine Michael, Cyrus Gray and Ryan Tannehill form a potent offensive trio, and will be the key players in a high-scoring offense.

In spite of the departure of Von Miller for the NFL, the Aggies will have a stout defense, and have the athletes to hang with the Oklahoma schools.

A&M will be improved, and will continue to do so.

18. Missouri Tigers

Gary Pinkel has enjoyed quite a bit of success during his tenure at Mizzou.

It looks as if that success will continue.

The Missouri defense will be the heart of the team.

Ends Jacquies Smith and Brad Madison combined for 13 sacks and 21 tackles for loss last year and form a dominating duo.

The Tigers have guys with big-play capability all over the field, and will be a player in the Big 12 race.

Definite improvement here.

17. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Huskers didn't lose very many games last season, but their poor performance against Washington in their bowl game must still haunt them.

Their defense is stout and if Taylor Martinez is a little more durable, they could do big things in their new conference.

Aye, but there's the rub.

If Martinez goes down, Nebraska is toast, and mobile quarterbacks get really banged up in the Big Ten.

While we can expect the team as a whole to be better, they will have at least three losses in conference play due to their brutal Big Ten schedule.

16. Florida State Seminoles

The 'Noles are better than at any point during the last 10 years.

E.J. Manuel is a legit QB, and they return everybody on offense who gained any meaningful yards.

Defensively, things look good, as the secondary boasts Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes, and linebacker Nigel Bradham is set for a huge season.

The days of Florida State's irrelevance in the ACC are over, and an undefeated season is a very real possibility.

15. Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans are going to be better on offense and worse on defense.

You don't lose your two leading tacklers and stay at the same level very often.

On the bright side, Kirk Cousins may be the best quarterback in the conference, and Keshawn Martin is the best return man in the country.

The Spartans are going to take a step back this season, but they will be back near the top of the conference in 2012.

14. Virginia Tech Hokies

There is no team in college football as consistent as Frank Beamer's Hokies.

Quarterbacks come and go, and they continue to be at or near the top of the ACC every season.

While this season will be no different, the Hokies face a significant challenge in an improved Florida State squad.

David Wilson and Logan Thomas take over in the backfield, and might take time to adjust.

They won't lose to an FCS team this season, but they certainly won't win the ACC, which is a step back from last season.

13. Arkansas Razorbacks

Believe it or not, the Razorbacks are going to be better without Ryan Mallett than they were with him.

Tyler Wilson is a solid replacement, and the Hogs still have SEC leading rusher Knile Davis headlining a bruising stable of backs.

The receiving corps is one of the best in the country, and will put up huge numbers.

Arkansas will be improved, and if they can sneak out a road win at LSU or Alabama, they might crack the BCS.

12. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The 'Pokes will have a very dynamic offense, the same as they have in the past.

Justin Blackmon is back at receiver, and Brandon Weeden resumes quarterback duties.

However, OSU faces a tough schedule, facing Tulsa, Texas A&M, Texas and Missouri on the road, and Oklahoma at the end of the season.

Couple that schedule with a less than impressive defense, and bad things happen.

This team is headed back down the slippery slope into football obscurity.

11. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is at the top of most preseason rankings once again.

In 2010, they couldn't handle the pressure with a Heisman-winning running back, the best receiver in the country and an experienced QB.

Why does everyone think they will do it this season?

Trent Richardson will get his numbers, and the talent along the O-line will make it easier for whoever plays QB to adjust.

While they won't lose three games, and will crush Auburn, the Tide are going to fall a game or two short of the title game.

10. Nevada Wolf Pack

This one is easy.

While Chris Ault is an offensive wizard, his entire scheme revolved around Colin Kaepernick.

He is now playing for the 49ers.

While Ault will likely find a better than serviceable replacement, he won't be talented enough to lead them to a one-loss season.

The Wolf Pack will take a step back this season.

9. LSU Tigers

Jordan Jefferson is the key, and odds are, the defense will keep the Tigers in enough games that he won't have to be brilliant to win.

The Tigers have one of the top defenses in the country, as usual, and speed all over the field.

Unless Les Miles pulls another clock management SNAFU of epic proportions, the Tigers will be much improved on 2010's version.

8. Boise State Broncos

Boise State will be slightly worse than last season.

Quarterback Kellen Moore is back, as is running back Doug Martin, and both guys will be productive, but without Titus Young and Austin Pettis, it's hard not to see Moore's production drop slightly.

Throw in the slightly improved level of competition, and the Broncos are looking at the potential for their first two-loss season since 2007.

7. Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners are legit.

The problem is their competition in the Big 12 is getting better.

They should have no difficulty in winning the Big 12, but the question remains as to whether they can pull it off without a loss.

Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles will both earn Heisman consideration, and the Sooners will be a better squad than last season.

6. Wisconsin Badgers

It's hard to top off a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl appearance.

Unless it's with a Rose Bowl win.

The Badgers are headed that way in 2011.

With Russell Wilson's transfer to UW, the Badgers now have one of the scariest backfields in the country.

A Big Ten championship and BCS berth are likely.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

This one is pretty obvious.

The Buckeyes have tanked harder than a soccer field absorbing contact.

While they still have a ton of talent, and a great program, it will be tough to duplicate last season's success.

Without Tressel and Pryor, and with some serious suspensions, chemistry and cohesiveness will be an issue, as well as pressure felt from the media.

No BCS for the Buckeyes this season.

4. Stanford Cardinal

The Cardinal will be in the same position they were last season.

They will finish behind Oregon in the Pac-12.

Andrew Luck will have another Heisman-like season, and receiver Chris Owusu adds a new deep threat the Cardinal did not have last season.

David Shaw inherits a ton of talent, but has his work cut out for him to win the conference.

3. Oregon Ducks

The Ducks will once again win the Pac-12.

This season, however, they will do it with a loss.

Three starters are gone from the offensive line, along with defensive terror Casey Matthews.

All that attrition won't be conducive to another undefeated regular season.

LaMichael James and Darron Thomas are great, but someone has to block for them.

2. TCU Horned Frogs

The Frogs are dropping like a rock.

Sure, they will still be stout on defense, and they have some serious weapons on offense.

The loss of Andy Dalton and two star offensive linemen will have more of an impact than most people realize.

Plus, that trip to the "Smurf Turf" is looming large already...

1. Auburn Tigers

Auburn is ready to vanish.

Losing Cam Newton and Nick Fairley is huge, and it's tough to replace one player of that caliber, much less two.

The level of talent in the SEC is so high that they are likely to have four or more losses this next season.

Gene Chizik is a solid coach, but he won't be able to cobble together a double-digit-win team with this squad.