Russell Wilson, Scott Tolzien and Wisconsin: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Madison and the rest of Big Ten country has been abuzz about what Russell Wilson does for Wisconsin, and how he changes the landscape of the conference title race.  Almost everyone agrees on one thing: it was a good move for Wisconsin. 

There is much disagreement on the issue of exactly how good it will be, though  As the story broke, many talking heads used the words “Wisconsin” and “National Title contender” in the same sentence for what seems like the first time. 

As the initial optimism blew over though, there has been much ado about Wilson’s stats at North Carolina State. 

Most notably there was this article (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=6738725)  on ESPN Insider by KC Joyner calling the move overhyped and potentially disappointing, backed up by looking at Wilson’s NC State stats. 

It is true; Russell Wilson’s 2010 season doesn’t look so great in terms of quarterback efficiency.  Yes, the counting numbers are there, but the efficiency just isn’t. 

Normally, this would be cause to temper expectations for what Wilson brings to this year’s Wisconsin football team.  But, as Mark Twain said, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  

Statistics can be made to say anything; one must look to the context of the statistics to find true meaning.

So, before coming to the conclusion that you shouldn’t get excited this year as a Badger fan or scared as a fan of other Big Ten teams, I’ll make the case that the context of these statistics (something Joyner failed to really dig into) tell a whole lot more than the stats themselves about not only Russell Wilson, but the QB position at Wisconsin.

The problem with looking at Wilson’s 2010 statistics and basing assumptions on his play for Wisconsin is that they are an extreme scenario for a QB.  They show Wilson in a completely different role than he will be in at Wisconsin. 

An even bigger problem is trying to comparing Wilson’s 2010 stats to Scott Tolzien’s 2010 stats as Joyner does.  Why?  Because they are polar opposites in terms of the situation each quarterback was in. 

You gain nothing by comparing these stats, because they simply aren’t comparable.  It would be like trying to compare a Ferrari to a Jeep.  Situation means everything in this case, so much so that it is just dumb to try to compare them, even though they are both cars.

If Wilson’s 2010 stats were the only evaluating tool we had, then you would have no choice but to draw assumptions from them.  But, luckily they aren’t, Wilson is a three-year starting QB!  Let’s take a closer look at all the stats in question here:

Wilson in 2010: 308/527, 3563 yards, 6.76 ypa, 58.4% completion rate, 28 TD, 14 INT, 127.5 rating

Tolzien in 2010: 194/266, 2459 yards, 9.24 ypa, 72.9% completion rate, 16 TD, 6 INT, 165.9 rating

Looking at these stats, alone it is easy to see why Joyner isn’t too excited.  But, there is a huge problem here.  It starts with the number of attempts. 

Wilson threw the ball nearly TWICE as many times as Tolzien.  The second, and maybe more important huge problem is the running game, but I’ll address that after we take a look at the 2009 statistics for these QBs.

Wilson in 2009: 224/378, 3027 yards, 8.01 ypa, 59.3% completion rate, 31 TD, 11 INT, 147.8 rating

Tolzien in 2009: 211/328, 2705 yards, 8.25 ypa, 64.3% completion rate, 16 TD, 11 INT, 143 rating

In attempting to compare the relevant talent of each QB, these are much better numbers.  378 to 328 attempts is much closer first of all.  Secondly, as I said is the issue of the running game. Let’s look at those stats. (Running back numbers only)

NC State 2010: 288 runs, 1132 yards, 3.93 ypc, 8 TD

Wisconsin 2010: 506 runs, 3060 yards, 6.05 ypc, 46 TD

The two running attacks and the QB usage numbers couldn’t be more different in the 2010 stats.  It is actually incredible when looking at the numbers side by side.  Wisconsin had an absolutely dominant running game last year.  But, in 2009?

NC State 2009: 305 runs, 1237 yards, 4.06 ypc, 13 TD

Wisconsin 2009: 451 runs, 2187 yards, 4.85 ypc, 25 TD

These are much more similar statistics than in 2010. Wisconsin still has the much better running game, but at least these are much more comparable than the 2010 statistics.

The running games in 2010 as well as the QB usage numbers are just much too different to compare between Tolzien and Wilson. 

The QB usage and poor running game in 2010 for Wilson is just too much different than what he will see at Wisconsin to use them to try to project with any reasonable accuracy how effective he will be this coming season for the Badgers. 

The point is, context is what makes statistics useful.  Without context, stats are only numbers.  The 2009 numbers are much more useful for trying to predict how effective Wilson will be in a Wisconsin uniform because the context is much more similar.  The 2009 numbers are also very useful in looking at the relative ability of Wilson and Tolzien.

These numbers are why I think Wilson is the better/more talented quarterback.  In 2009 Wilson still had a much worse running game than Tolzien.  But, they were a lot closer together than the massive difference in 2010, which makes the 2010 comparison ridiculous and useless. 

Although Wilson had the worse running game and more attempts in 2009, he still outperformed Tolzien in terms of efficiency.  Wilson had a much better TD/INT ration, and a better QB rating.  This is why I believe Wilson is the better QB, when evaluating similar circumstances, Wilson outperformed Tolzien.

Now, I know what you are saying, “But, why will Wilson be better than Tolzien was last year?  Tolzien was much better last year than he was in the 09 season, and we only care about whether Wilson is better than Tolzien was LAST season.” 

Well, there’s a long answer and a short answer.  The short answer is talent and mobility.  Wilson is the more talented QB, and his mobility adds a lot to the table. 

The long answer goes like this:  QB statistics depend a lot on how good the rest of the offense is and usage rates. 

You can see this in both Tolzien and Wilson’s 2009 and 2010 statistics.  In Wilson’s case the running game was slightly better in 2009 and his usage rate was way down from 2010.  What resulted?  A much more efficient QB. 

In Tolzien’s case, a good running game turned into a dominant machine and his usage numbers fell by nearly 1/5 from 2009 to 2010, and his efficiency sky rocketed. 

Need more evidence? Check out Stephen Garcia’s stats at South Carolina.

In 2009 he threw the ball 423 times and had a QB rating of 119.3, the running game wasn’t great, 271 attempts for 4.45 ypc and 8 TD. 

In 2010 his usage is reduced by 17.5% to 349 attempts and his QB rating went up to 148.7, the running game improved with the addition of Lattimore: 395 attempts for 4.8 ypc and 20 TDs. 

QB efficiency statistics are massively reliant on usage and the running game, as I have shown. 

Tolzien’s numbers in 2010 were stellar and that speaks to his ability as a QB, but he is still the same person from 2009 to 2010, and the massive improvement in the running game and his large drop in usage is behind much of Tolzien’s efficiency improvement. 

In the same way Russell Wilson is the same person who was very efficient in 2010 as he was last year, but his usage rate went way up and his running game got worse, hence the drop in efficiency. 

So why will Wisconsin be better with Wilson this year than they were with Tolzien last year?  Because, the more talented QB, Wilson, gets put in the situation that lofted the less talented, Tolzien, to such efficiency heights. 

In similar situations in 2009 (although Tolzien was still in a better one for the QB position) Wilson beat out Tolzien.  In very similar situations this coming year, I expect Wilson to beat out Tolzien again as a passer as well as adding mobility to the table (of which Tolzien had next to zero). 

This is why I am so excited about Wilson joining this Wisconsin team and why I predict great things out of Wilson and the team this year. 

To Joyner and the other hype killers out there I say, don’t use just the numbers to argue something, look at the story behind them.  Wilson won’t struggle with efficiency, because he will be in a system and have a running game that breeds QB efficiency.