College Football: Will Florida or Texas Have Better Bounce-Back Season?

College football, like life, is cyclical. And last season, two traditional powers were in the low part of that cycle.

The Florida Gators, used to being the class of the SEC East found themselves losing five of eight to close the regular season. But how long will they stay down?

Texas fared even worse, barely sneaking four wins.

So here’s the question: Which of these giants will have the better bounce-back season?

Case for Florida No. 1: They Weren't That Bad Last Year

Sure, it was a down year in Gainesville, but the Gators weren’t awful. OK, they played awful at times in some bad road losses, including a drubbing at Florida State and at Alabama. And there was the big loss to South Carolina at home.

But close loss to an inexplicably lucky LSU team and solid Mississippi State team blighted an 8-5 season which may have been considered all the more disappointing considering the Gators opened the season in the top five in the polls. But even into November 7, this team was showing up in the BCS rankings due to its SOS.

Nobody is saying this team will play for the national championship this year, or even for the SEC crown, but shouldn’t a team that won eight games last year and returns key still players on offense improve to nine or 10 wins?

Case for Florida No. 2: Weiss Offense

You think Deonte Thompson was happy to see Charlie Weiss haul his three bills into The Swamp this offseason?

The Gators leading receiver from last year is sure to see a steady diet of balls coming his way via the pass-happy offensive philosophy of the love child of John Candy and Rodney Dangerfield (*shuddering*).

Did you know in Weis’ first year at Notre Dame, the Irish increased passing yards over 50 percent and rushing totals over 15%? To make my point I have to ignore the next four seasons, but the point is he brings a spark to Florida the offense just might need to put points and Ws on the board.

The bad news? Weis is a notorious A-hole, and the nation will be rooting for the Gators to fail (more so).

Case for Florida No. 3: Depth

This is the Florida Feaking Gators. I know the State of Alabama’s teams have a lot of money to offer recruits, but Urban Meyer’s recruiting run at Florida is legendary and possibly unparalleled.

The Gators come into the year with a swampful of skill and speed on both sides of the ball. As long as most of the team stays out of the clink, this batch of talent ought to yield eight wins as a minimum.

Case for Florida No. 4: Growing Youth

Never underestimate how much improvement comes with a year of experience. Film time, maturity and conditioning all move forward eight months and the result is usually better play on the field.

It’s not terribly uncommon for a first-time starting QB to have close to the same number of TDs as INTs. That’s just what happened to John Brantley last season.

With a year under his belt, expect that 2,061-9-10 line on the stat sheet to move somewhere closer to 3,000-15-8. If it doesn’t, get familiar with Jeff Driskel. Quickly.

Case for Florda No. 5: Muschamp Defense

The Gators certainly weren’t the worst team in the SEC in defense last year. I mean, Vandy will always be there, right?

But by all accounts Will Muschamp is a defensive genius. His leaving Texas for The Swamp after being named as Mac Brown’s eventual successor makes this comparison all the more tasty.

But look for the Gators to take an already solid defensive squad and make it elite. I would be surprised to see Florida give up more than 30 four times this season like we saw last.

That tenacious D (I’m a fan) should allow the ‘Tors to win a few good ol’ fashion 10-7 games SEC Old-Skool style (I’m not a fan).  

Case for Texas No. 1: Schedule

Florida has between six and eight “Should-win” games. Texas has eight or nine.

There’s no doubt the Big 12 is down this year, with Oklahoma a clear favorite to take the conference’s BCS bid. But Texas also has to find a way past Texas A&M, a possible sleeper in Missouri and an early test with BYU coming to town.

But the schedule is very manageable, even for a team that couldn’t get bowl eligible last year.

Case for Texas No. 2: Stockpiled Talent

Like Florida, Texas is an absolute incubator for football talent. The Longhorns, despite their confounding underachievement last season, have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.

Mack Brown and staff have been prolific recruiters in the Lonestar (and surrounding) State, and there’s no shortage of playmakers on the roster.

The question is: Can they all get on the same page?

Case for Texas No. 3: Better QB Play

They say a team with two quarterbacks has no quarterback. But when you’re Texas, and you went 4-8, you’ll take a two-quarterback race.

The good news is they have a guy in Garrett Gilbert who passed for over 2,700 yards last season. But in the pass-happy recent Big 12, that’s not cutting it, especially when you’ve got 17 interceptions and just 10 TDs.

But, experience can’t be taught, and Gilbert can’t help but be better this year.

And Case McCoy (Yes, Colt’s little brother) is a freshman this year and is sure to be a fan favorite early if Gilbert struggles against BYU, UCLA, or gulp, Rice.

So the added pressure ought to make Gilbert feel a sense of urgency to perform. In theory.

Case for Texas No. 4: A New Staff and New Attitude

Will Muschamp: Gone. Greg Davis: Gone. Mack Brown: On the hot seat?

In is Bryan Harsin of Boise State University fame(?) as co-offensive coordinator with former Texas star QB Major Applewhite, who, it turns out, was never in the service.

Harsin will call the plays, but Applewhite should be a great motivator and presence the offense can relate to and will listen to.

Also in is Manny Diaz, who was a relative unknown until he brought Mississippi State out of the bottom half of the SEC. Diaz is a modern D-coordinator with an analytical bend and a brings a high-energy attitude to campus.

But will it lead to wins?

It’s a pretty tall order to expect a four-win team with a new offense and a new defense to produce wins in volume. So, can Texas deliver more improvement than the Florida team that stole its defensive coordinator?

Case for Texas No. 5: Urgency

2010 was a dark year for Longhorn football. Texas lost seven of its last nine games, and if you exclude the win against Florida Atlantic, they didn’t score more than 22 points in any of those games.

Lack of points wasn’t even as bad as double-digit losses to UCLA, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

So don’t expect this team to slide as much down the stretch this year. They simply can’t, or Mack Brown will be out of a job. He won’t let that happen.

Texas fans know this team repeatedly shot itself in the foot last year. And it didn’t discriminate how it did so.

Turnovers, defensive lapses, penalties and general apathy all led to points against the Horns.

Those things are fixable. They’re discipline errors. And expect Texas to resolve them this year.

Conclusion

Back to the initial question: Which team will have the better bounce-back season? Florida or Texas.

I can’t in good conscience say Texas. This is a team that was two games under .500 last season and now has entirely new coordinators and systems.

I know I said the schedule was manageable, but I was being generous. It is manageable, but I can’t see Texas managing it. Don’t be surprised to see Texas lose to BYU, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri and someone else along the way. That puts the Horns out of bowl eligibility and puts Mack Brown’s job in jeopardy.

Florida, on the other hand, should take care of its first four opponents, an Auburn team without its best paid player, Furman, Vandy and Georgia. That gives the Gators eight wins. With a win against one of the remaining tough opponents, Florida would have a nine or 10-win campaign and could even find itself in the SEC championship.