Iowa Football: 5 Nightmare Scenarios for 2011 Season

As much as fans may ballyhoo on about how great the Hawkeyes could be this season, they should also be painfully aware that everything could go horribly wrong.

Let's face it: it's happened before. Has the 2010 season fallen so far from memory already?  

Things certainly aren't perfect in Iowa City. Already, there are several issues to work through. If things go right, those issues will be a needless worry of the past. If they don't...well...

So, what could derail a potentially very good 2011 season?

Marcus Coker Suffers a Season-Ending Injury Early

Running back is one of the toughest positions in football. Backs routinely take hard hits while trying to move forward at (or near) full speed. Opposing players hit them low, potentially injuring vulnerable knees.  They load up for big hits, making concussions an every-down reality.

In the past, Iowa has watched players like Jewel Hampton see their seasons cut tragically short thanks to ill-timed hits to unfortunate places.

While Iowa has Jason White, Mika'il McCall and De'Andre Johnson waiting in the wings, none of those players have any appreciable experience. Despite being a junior, White had just one carry last year (for 14 yards) and none in 2009. 

McCall is a true freshman, and Johnson is a redshirt freshman, meaning neither has seen the field during actual game time.

Sure, fans can point to 2009 and how Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher both stepped up big when Hampton went down with injury. They can also point to how well Coker did late last year when Robinson was out with injury and eventually dismissed from the team. 

How many times can Iowa fans count on untested running backs stepping in and being awesome? It doesn't happen that often, and Iowa has already used up a few "gimmes" in that category. 

James Vandenberg Can't Protect the Ball

Last year, Vandenberg threw one touchdown and no interceptions. That might sound great, until you figure in the fact that he only attempted eight total passes. It's not that difficult to prevent interceptions when you're not asked to throw the ball.

In 2009, when Vandy had more demanded of him, the youngster tossed five interceptions to only two touchdowns. Ouch.

Again, fans can point to the past (specifically 2009) and show that the Hawkeyes did quite well even when Ricky Stanzi was busy tossing up "Stanziballs."

First, James Vandenberg isn't Ricky Stanzi. Don't expect him to bounce right back as if everything was hunky-dory and keep right on chucking up rocks, pulling amazing plays from thin air. Second, this team isn't the same as the 2009 team.

That team found ways to win, against the odds and even when things appeared to go horribly wrong. They simply had "it", whatever "it" is. 

The Hawkeyes should have a solid run game behind a great offensive line and featuring a tremendous young running back. However, the pass attack is somewhat questionable at the moment. What if Vandy tosses more picks than TD's? Then what?

Iowa can't afford to have a negative turnover margin. Their division is too strong, and their defense has too many question marks. Either Marcus Coker has to carry the ball 50 times per game, or Vandy has to take good care of the football.

Norm Parker Isn't on the Iowa Sideline

He is the defensive guru. He's the Budha of badass. When Norm Parker can get in the faces of his players, Iowa's defense is as tough as anyone's in the nation.

When he can't do that though, Iowa's defense is only a shell of what it can be. At least, that was the way it appeared when Norm had to miss a good portion of last season with diabetes-related health concerns. 

The formations are the same, the plays are the same and the names are the same. The production apparently isn't. 

Right now, Iowa is dealing with the losses of Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Tyler Sash and Bret Greenwood, among others. Their linebackers struggled with injuries last year and still has to find the right combination to get things back on track.

The secondary has to play around with their alignment to figure out how best to replace Sash and Greenwood. Micah Hyde's move to safety helps, but that then weakens the corner position slightly. 

The line may or may not be all that dominant. The linebackers may be an asset, or they may be a hindrance. 

This defense needs Norm Parker on the sideline. It needs him up front and calling the shots. It needs him getting in people's face and reminding them what they're capable of. 

The offense could be fantastic. Then again, it could be woefully one-dimensional and hanging by a thread. Iowa's bread-and-butter is playing a tough, in-your-face defense that buys the offense endless opportunities. 

Without Parker, the offense could take center stage, and Iowa could be in a world of hurt.

The Offensive Line Suffers Too Many Injuries

As Al Namias IV noted, "if the Hawks get that deep into the backups, God help us all." He was talking more than just an injury or two, but his thoughts are right on.

Iowa has a tremendous potential riding on this offensive line. If they're as good as advertised, the run game should be as dangerous as any in the conference, and the quarterback should have plenty of time to get rid of the rock.

But what if injuries start creeping in? It's happened before.

Every projected starter on the line has plenty of experience. However, right away, there is very little real experience among the reserves. Should even one injury take place, the line becomes a shade weaker.  Should it sustain more than one, it becomes considerably weaker, and if it suffers more than that, things could get really bad.

Every aspect of a pro-style offense hinges on strong play at the line. Iowa's fits that bill to a tee. 

If this line stays healthy, Iowa's offense will be dangerous. If it doesn't, the Hawkeye offense sputters to a grinding halt and that could spell big trouble.

Iowa Can't Win the Close Ones

Last year, seven of Iowa's 13 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Each of their last five games were within that frame.

Unfortunately, Iowa lost three of those last five and five of the seven close ones.

Last year, Michigan wasn't yet up to par. Despite breaking in a new coach, expect them to be better than a year ago, making that 10-point victory a shade bigger than it could be under similar circumstances this year. 

Michigan State may not have brought their "A" game last year either. At the time they faced Iowa, they were 8-0 and looking at the very real possibility of having an undefeated season. How much of that performance was a mental meltdown versus simply being outplayed? 

Northwestern always plays Iowa tough, Penn State could be better than last year, Indiana almost has to be better, and Nebraska enters the fray. 

This division is tough. In fact, I think it's probably tougher overall than the Leaders division. 

Considering that Iowa has a nasty habit of playing closer to the vest than necessary, you can expect that there will be some pretty tight contests again this year. 

If the Hawks can't figure out how to "play to win," especially in the close games, things could get pretty ugly in 2011.