College Football 2011: Power Ranking the SEC Teams' Bowl Chances

It only takes six wins to qualify for postseason play and any SEC team that reaches this benchmark is assured to be invited to a bowl. So what are each team's chances of reaching a bowl in 2011?

Bowls want SEC schools.

The conference is college football's best. In 2010, 10 of the 12 teams in the conference played in a bowl game, finishing 5-5 in the games (one loss was against the ineligible Ohio State team and the other was the Tennessee-UNC debacle).

First, you have the no-doubters who are sure to be penciled in for the bowl games. Teams like Alabama, Auburn and Florida fall into this category.

Then there are the bottom feeders that would rejoice if they made it to a bowl. Vanderbilt is a usual suspect in this category, but they are sure to be joined by Kentucky and Ole Miss in 2011.

The real question in this article comes for the middle-class to upper-middle-class teams. What's their likelihood of making a bowl come from No. 12 to No. 1?

Here are my rankings.

No. 12: Ole Miss Rebels

My dad is a lifelong college football fan, SEC fan and Tennessee fan. He told me the day that the Ole Miss Rebels hired former Arkansas Razorbacks coach Houston Nutt that it'd only be a matter of time before he had them down the dumps again.

His prediction is coming true.

After hitting the ground running in 2008 and 2009 with back-to-back 9-4 seasons as well as back-to-back wins at the Cotton Bowl, Nutt's Rebels fell back to earth hard with a 4-8 record including only one SEC win.

It looks as though Nutt is going to have trouble winning without the players that former coach Ed Orgeron brought in such as Dexter McCluster and Jevan Snead. 

No. 11: Kentucky Wildcats

The Kentucky Wildcats will sport a new quarterback in 2011. They'll have to replace do-all player Randall Cobb somehow. At the running back and wide receiver position, they'll be dipping down to the third or even fourth player from 2010 as new starters.

The season outlook is bleak to say the least.

I'm a fan of second-year coach Joker Phillips. He's recruited fairly well over the past two seasons, but those players are rarely contributing factors until their second or third year.

The Wildcats have lost too much to graduation and the draft and will suffer from it in their 2011 bowl chances.

No. 10: Vanderbilt Commodores

With only two wins last year, the Vanderbilt Commodores are ranked above Kentucky for two reasons: One, the aforementioned losses for the Wildcats and two, the injection of energy that Vandy's new coach James Franklin has give the Commodores.

I'm not sure if he'll be able to carry on the excitement for years to come, but 2011 could be a successful season under the direction of Franklin.

Warren Norman needs to get more carries at running back. He has averaged 5.4 and 6.0 yards per game in his first two seasons but has yet to crack 800 yards for the season.

More carries will be key to Vanderbilt's potential postseason run.

No. 9: Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State was very impressive in 2010. After a good 8-4 regular season, the Bulldogs took the Michigan Wolverines behind the house and, to be blunt, whooped their ass. A 52-14 win deserves no other description.

Head coach Dan Mullen turned down any offers from Florida last year after Urban Meyer retired (again), saying that he believed you could win by keeping Mississippi high schoolers in-state.

He might be right.

Sixteen of Mullen's 22 recruits last year came from Mississippi, and the class was ranked in the top 50 in the nation according to Rivals.com.

I expect another big year from quarterback Chris Relf and another excellent chance at a bowl game. 

No. 8: Georgia Bulldogs

It's no secret that I'm low on the Georgia Bulldogs. I've written about some worst-case scenarios that could lead to their downfall, but not of all them have to occur for Georgia to have a tough year.

Everything is relative, though. I was raving about Mississippi State, but I'm predicting a tough year for Georgia yet have them ranked higher.

Mark Richt is impossible to predict. If not for LSU head coach Les Miles, Richt might be the SEC's "Mad Hatter." The loss of top running back Washaun Ealey and top receiver A.J. Green is a lot to overcome.

Star quarterback Aaron Murray is the best signal-caller in the SEC and will still be able to lead the Bulldogs to a successful regular and possible postseason record.

No. 7: Tennessee Volunteers

Things could be interesting on Rocky Top in 2011, especially if you like offense. Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Tyler Bray isn't afraid of pulling the trigger and has a receiving corps that can handle his cannonballs.

Derek Dooley himself snagged a Bray pass in the win over Kentucky in 2010, the 26th in a row for the Vols.

The offensive line is all coming back and is battle-tested after playing a full year together and shaking off the jitters of their youth. Their limitations will come from the defense, which hasn't been the same since All-American Eric Berry was drafted.

Safety Janzen Jackson is close to being reinstated at the university and will provide a much-needed boost to the Vols defense if they expect to correct the Music City Bowl mistake this year.

No. 6: Arkansas Razorbacks

If I could buy stock in a team, I'd buy the Arkansas Razorbacks. They might not be an under-the-radar team, but they are underrated since they lost their star quarterback Ryan Mallett to April's draft.

After Mallett was knocked out of the 2010 Auburn game in the first half, backup Tyler Wilson came in and shined until the final minutes of the game. That experience will be invaluable in 2011.

Greg Childs missed half the season with a knee injury but was on track to have 1,070 yards and 9.8 touchdowns, an excellent year.

Because of his return and the return of running back Knile Davis, who broke out in a big way in 2010 by leading all running backs with 1,322 yards, the Razorbacks look good for a bowl trip this year.

No. 5: Florida Gators

This fairly high ranking is as much out of respect as anything. I've expressed serious concerns about how well their new coaching staff will mesh with each other and the players.

But Florida is Florida, and that means they're one of the most athletic teams in the SEC each and every year. This gives them more leeway in games than most teams out there.

Charlie Weis' knowledge of offense is virtually unparalleled, and quarterback John Brantley would do good to listen to what he says and try to stay on his good side.

Similarly, head coach Will Muschamp needs to be sure to keep Weis happy and worry about the defense only since I have little doubt that Weis will expect almost complete autonomy.

In any event, you can just about guarantee that the Gators will chomp their way into a bowl game.

No. 4: Auburn Tigers

Even with the losses of Cam Newton and Nick Fairley to the NFL draft, the Auburn Tigers will field a highly talented, highly competitive team that will push for the SEC West title for a second consecutive year.

Watch for running back Michael Dyer to take an even bigger role in support of new quarterback Barrett Trotter.

Ontario McCaleb will also be called upon to put his world-class speed on showcase in order to score points.

Head coach Gene Chizik and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will continue to keep the ball on the ground in order to make a national title defense.

No. 3: LSU Tigers

In a conference that is filled with a lot of player turnover from 2010 to 2011 due to graduation and the draft, one team stands alone as generally unchanged from last year—the LSU Tigers. Meanwhile, Les Miles is known as the craziest, riskiest, and to some, dumbest head coach in the SEC.

The irony is too great to delve into for just one article.

The Tigers will need to fill the void left by Stevan Ridley at running back and Terrance Tolliver at wide receiver, but while both of those players were key to LSU's 2010 success, they aren't irreplaceable.

Miles will once again have three quarterbacks to play with, two of which were among the team's leaders in rushing, and one of which was in the team's leaders in receiving last season.

This will be fun.

No. 2: Alabama Crimson Tide

It's hard to bet against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but in a way, that's what I'm doing by ranking them a mere second in this list. I hope Nick Saban doesn't catch wind of this.

The Crimson Tide will absolutely make a bowl game in 2011, but the losses of their quarterback Greg McElroy, running back Mark Ingram and wide receiver Julio Jones can't be overlooked.

Alabama is in a reloading era where they just keep sending out great teams, but putting it all together in one year is difficult even for a Saban team.

That being said, I expect Alabama to represent the West in the SEC Championship and possibly make a BCS bowl game.

No. 1: South Carolina Gamecocks

The South Carolina Gamecocks are similar to LSU in that they have little loss at the key positions.

Quarterback Stephen Garcia has been reinstated. Marcus Lattimore is ready to smash defenders again. And Alshon Jeffrey is back to duplicate his receiving yards title in the SEC.

The South Carolina defense has been exceptional under Lorenzo Ward, whose defensive line had two players in the top four for SEC sacks in 2010.

Steve Spurrier is one of the top coaches in conference history with the savvy and experience to win the SEC Championship this year after finishing second last year.

I'm calling it right now: South Carolina will be the SEC Champions.