Penn State Football: 10 Worst-Case Scenarios for 2011

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We already took a look at some of the dream scenarios for Penn State this upcoming season, but what about things that could go wrong?

Could Penn State finish fourth or worse in the Big Ten's new Leaders Division? Is it possible Penn State could miss a bowl game?

Probably not, but let's play some Devil's advocate and take a look at some of the disaster scenarios that could derail Penn State's 2011 football season.

 

Kevin McGuire is the national college football writer for Examiner.com. Follow his college football discussion on Twitter.

1. Quarterback Battle Continues

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Last season was plagued by a season-long quarterback debate and saw two players take the majority of the snaps in 2010. Heading in to 2011, near the end of June, there is no clear answer on who will be under center at the start of the season.

Will Penn State go with Matt McGloin, who finished the season at quarterback for Joe Paterno and was leading the offense for Paterno's 400th victory, earning him a special spot in the coach's heart in the process? Or will Rob Bolden be named the starter and be given an opportunity to grow and mature in to the starting job?

What if both struggle? Does Paul Jones become a viable option for the offense?

No matter what happens, the historical trend is that one stable quarterback leads to a more productive season. Does Penn State have that in the arsenal?

Disaster scenario: All three quarterbacks start games during the season, and not because of injury.

2. Running Game Struggles

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Fans are excited about the future of Silas Redd, but will he be able to take on a bigger load in his sophomore season? If Redd can't improve on his freshman season,is there anyone else who can step up?

Stephfon Green had another down season in 2010 and is a bit of a question mark, and Brandon Beachum is returning from injury but how reliable will he be? At this stage everybody still remains a bit of a question mark.

Disaster scenario: Redd regresses and Green can't rebound. Running game suffers behind over-matched offensive line.

3. Linebacker U Becomes Injury U

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The signature position at Penn State is linebacker, but last year saw a rash of injuries and instability at the position.

Playing with a number of injuries on the defensive line also hurt but Penn State is hoping to see improved play in 2011 in the middle of the defense.

But the way injuries have gone for Penn State over the past two seasons who knows what to expect.

Disaster scenario: Injuries once again creep up on the defense and the linebackers have little impact and ability to come up with a big play.

4. Penn State Is Bruiesed by Alabama

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Most will say that Alabama is going to win anyway, but how demoralizing would the loss be for Penn State?

With young stars on offense a win against Alabama, a possible BCS Champion contender, could do wonders for lifting the confidence level for Penn State. Would a loss leave heads hanging for the entire season as early as Week 2?

Without a doubt, the Alabama game will be a bit of a measuring stick for the Nittany Lions and it could easily set a tone for the 2011 season one way or another.

Disaster scenario: Alabama roll in to Happy Valley and goes home with a 20-point (or more) victory.

5. Penn State Loses to Iowa

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Iowa may not be a team many teams in the Big Ten will fret over this season, but for Penn State the Hawkeyes are a big obstacle in recent seasons.

No team has dominated Penn State in terms of wins and losses like Iowa. Losing to the Hawkeyes would do more damage to the psyche of the team than a loss to Alabama.

Disaster scenario: Iowa holds Penn State's offense out of the end zone, continues dominance over Nittany Lions in Big Ten play.

6. Penn State Upset by Northwestern

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Penn State travels to Northwestern for the only prime time game on the schedule this season and it could bring some problems. Northwestern will be prepared for a full 60 minutes this time around after letting a game slip away from them last season.

Penn State was down early against Northwestern but rallied after a quarterback change to pick up Joe Paterno's 400th win. For Pat Fitzgerald, this was one that stung.

Disaster scenario: Penn State slips up on the road against a team looking for revenge.

7. Penn State Falls Asleep Against Illinois

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Illinois roughed up Penn State last season and showed no signs of intimidation of Penn State's defensive line.

What resulted was some early gambles going Ron Zook's way to set the pace for a dominating victory, one of the worst losses in Joe Paterno's recent years. There was nothing pretty about it but Penn State will get a chance to redeem themselves at home this season.

But if Penn State slips in Evanston the week before, could Illinois take advantage of that lack of momentum?

Disaster scenario: Coming off a loss at Northwestern, Penn State suffers a second straight loss in Big Ten play, this time within the division.

8. Penn State Lacks Power in Columbus

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By the time Penn State makes the trip to Ohio State in November we will know more about where the Buckeyes (and Nittany Lions) are heading. What happens if Ohio State avoids NCAA sanctions?

By the time Penn State and Ohio State play the Buckeyes will likely have all of their suspended players back and in rhythm, making them a serious threat in the conference as expected.

Disaster scenario: Ohio State is at full-power and showing promising signs of a Big Ten contender, defends home turf once again. Penn State fails to break 14 points.

9. Penn State Misses a Bowl Game

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Penn State needs six wins to be eligible for a bowl game, so the question is are there six games that Penn State could lose? Maybe.

Alabama, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are the four most likely losses. Throw in Iowa and Illinois and Penn State could finish with an equal number of wins and losses, but who else could pick up a victory? A road game at Temple? Northwestern road game?

Disaster scenario: Penn State is decimated by injuries and loses too many games to keep them out of bowl eligibility.

10. Total Revolving Door in Program After Season

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If Penn State finishes the season on a losing note, and misses a bowl game, then the odds that Joe Paterno steps down may increase. And if the quarterback situation jostles back and forth all year then who knows who may also leave the program.

It could be a messy time for the program, although it is one that some fans are more than ready to embark upon. We'll see.

Disaster scenario: Penn State botches the search for a new head coach, loses a talented quarterback, and an entire assistant coaching staff.