College Football 2011: 105 Picks Against the Spread from Vegas' Early Lines

Joe PenkalaCorrespondent IJune 24, 2011

College Football 2011: 105 Picks Against the Spread from Vegas' Early Lines

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    With the college football season getting closer and closer, things will start to pick back up in Vegas as fans around the nation will take their hunches to the bank. has already put out an early line on 105 games around the college football landscape. Some seem to be easy money while others will keep you biting your nails.

    Time to see which team you should go all in on.

Week 1: Tulsa (+21) vs Oklahoma

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    No question about this one. Oklahoma is at home and with Landry Jones, the spread should be covered by the half.

Week 1: Oregon vs LSU (+3)

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    Perhaps the biggest out of conference game in the nation will give Oregon another crack at an SEC team. While I think Oregon will win, I believe it will be on a late field goal giving them a one or two point victory.

    Take LSU and the three points.

Week 1: Boise State (-6) at Georgia

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    Kellen Moore and Boise State head down to Georgia and get Mark Richt's season off to a bad start. Take Boise and give up the six points.

Week 1: Missouri (-20.5) vs Miami of Ohio

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    Missouri is at home but 20.5 points is a huge spread for a team that will be working out the kinks playing with a new quarterback. Role the dice and take Miami of Ohio and the points.

Week 1: SMU at Texas A&M (-17)

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    Texas A&M is going to contend for a Big 12 conference title this year and with their defense you can be confident in giving up the 17 points and taking the Aggies.

Week 1: Maryland (+3) at Miami

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    Week one gets off to a quick start for these two as they jump into conference play. Its not often I would take a road team in conference play but Miami has too many questions at quarterback to get off to a quick start. Take Maryland and the points.

Week 2: Missouri at Arizona State (-3)

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    Missouri's season continues to get off to a bumpy start when they head on the road to take on Arizona State. Take the Sun Devils, homefield advantage and give up the three points.

Week 2: Alabama (-9) at Penn State

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    Last year Alabama beat Penn State handily in Tuscaloosa, 24-3. This year, Bama is on the road, but will easily cover the nine points.

Week 2: Auburn (-3.5) vs Mississippi State

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    If this game was being played on the road, I would say take Mississippi State but since it is a home game for Auburn, give the 3.5 points and take the Tigers.

Week 2: South Carolina at Georgia (+3)

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    The slow start that Mark Richt cannot afford will continue in week two. After a likely week one loss to Boise, things go from bad to worse as South Carolina make Georgia 0-2. South Carolina wins this one big.

Week 2: Michigan (-2) vs Notre Dame

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    Michigan is trying to go back to a Pro-Style offense and this will cause early season issues for Denard Robinson. Consider the two points a gift and take Notre Dame.

Week 2: Texas vs BYU (+7.5)

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    Its hard to believe you that should ever hesitate taking Texas at home, only giving up 7.5 points but this is one of those games you should look at a bit closer. Give the points and take Texas but keep your eyes on this one.

Week 2: USC (-8) vs Utah

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    In Week 2, Utah will get their first taste of Pac-12 conference play when they head on the road to take on USC. Matt Barkely will give them a rude welcoming and help the Trojans cover the 8 point line.

Week 2: TCU (-6.5) at Air Force

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    Despite not having Andy Dalton and playing on the road against Air Force, TCU will cover the 6.5 points and win easily.

Week 3: LSU (+1) at Mississippi State

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    LSU is a team that many view as a potential national title contender and this will be a huge step to getting there. It will be a close and hard fought game but take LSU and the point.

Week 3: Oklahoma (-3.5) vs Florida State

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    Last year got ugly for Florida State when they headed on the road to take on Oklahoma. This year, the Sooners head on the road to take on the Seminoles but the result will remain the same, a Oklahoma double digit victory.

Week 3: Oklahoma State at Tulsa (+8)

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    Despite playing on the road, Oklahoma State will put up too many points for Tulsa to keep up with. Take the Cowboys and give up the eight points.

Week 3: Michigan State vs Notre Dame (-6)

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    After a thrilling game in 2010, what will Michigan State and Notre Dame do for an encore. With the game in South Bend, look for Notre Dame to win but take the six points and Michigan State.

Week 3: West Virginia (-3) at Maryland

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    West Virginia is heading on the road and is a favorite at Maryland. Look for Randy Edsall to earn a key victory for Maryland early in 2011. Take the points and Maryland.

Week 3: Utah at BYU (-2.5)

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    BYU will host this year's edition of the rivalry game with Utah and is an early 2.5 point favorite. Take Utah and the points as they look to rebound from a Week 2 loss.

Week 3: Tennessee (+13.5) vs Florida

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    While Florida should end up winning this game, the Vols are a team that could give other SEC teams a run for their money. Take Tennessee and the 13.5 points.

Week 3: Auburn (+1) vs Clemson

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    Last year, Auburn won a thriller at home in overtime but this year, the game shifts to Clemson. Give up the point and look for a Clemson victory.

Week 4: Missouri at Oklahoma (-13)

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    Oklahoma will continue their offensive output when they welcome Missouri into Norman. The Sooners offense will be too much and will cover the 13 points with ease.

Week 4: Arkansas vs Alabama (-11)

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    Alabama is another team with national championship aspirations and I do not see Arkansas bringing an end to that. While Alabama will win, take Arkansas and the points in this game.

Week 4: LSU at West Virginia (+4)

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    LSU continues to add to their difficult out of conference schedule by taking on West Virginia on the road. The game should stay close going to the half but in the end, LSU will take over the come and cover the 4 point spread.

Week 4: Tulsa at Boise State (-24)

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    Boise State rarely has an issue covering a spread with their dynamic offense and it is not about to start against Tulsa. Watch Boise have the 24 point gap covered by the half.

Week 4: Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (-6)

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    This early season matchup could determine which team will compete with Oklahoma for the Big 12 crown. Home advantage plays a big part in the Aggies winning and covering the spread.

Week 4: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (+4)

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    Despite being at home, Pittsburgh is still getting 4 points and for good reason. The Irish should roll into town and be able to win the game by at least a touchdown. Take Notre Dame.

Week 4: USC at Arizona State (-3)

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    This will be the opening conference game for Arizona State. The game will feature the top two teams in the Pac-12 South division and despite being a three point favorite, take USC and the points and watch them win outright.

Week 4: San Diego State at Michigan (-8)

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    Going up against his former team, Brady Hoke will lead Michigan against San Diego State, if the spread was a little bit higher, I would be tempted to take San Diego State but Hoke will want this win too bad. Lay the 8 points and take Michigan.

Week 4: Florida State (-7) at Clemson

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    Florida State heads on the road and is still giving 7 points to Clemson. While that is a lot for a road conference game, the Seminoles will cover and should end up winning by two scores.

Week 5: TCU vs SMU (+12)

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    Despite having the homefield advantage in this game, SMU has been on the rise and could give TCU a challenge. TCU will end up winning the game but take the 12 points and count on SMU keeping it close.

Week 5: Alabama (-6) at Florida

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    The Crimson Tide head down to the swamp for an SEC battle. Overall the Alabama defense will be too much for Brantley and the Gator offense. Give the 6 points and take Alabama.

Week 5: Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-2.5)

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    Another game to take place at the new Cowboys Stadium is Arkansas and Texas A&M. This will be a great back and forth game but be confident and pick the Aggies to cover the 2.5 point spread.

Week 5: Auburn vs South Carolina (-7.5)

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    While the SEC Championship game did not work out so well for South Carolina, this year Auburn will have to head on the road to take on the Gamecocks. Without Cam Newton look for South Carolina to win but still take the Tigers as they are getting 7.5 points.

Week 5: Wisconsin vs Nebraska (+2.5)

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    Nebraska gets their first taste of Big 10 conference play with a trip to Wisconsin. It will be a memorable one as the Badgers hand them their first conference loss. Give the 2.5 points and take Wisconsin.

Week 5: Mississippi State vs Georgia (-3.5)

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    Georgia will likely be 2-2 at this point of the season but a home game against Mississippi State could prove to be the end for Mark Richt. Take Mississippi State and the points and watch them win straight up.

Week 6: Oklahoma (-8) vs Texas

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    Too much offense and not enough defense in this game. The Sooners will continue to role and don't be scared about giving the 8 points.

Week 6: Florida vs LSU (-5.5)

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    While Florida will be better than they were last year, they are still going up against one of the top five teams in the nation at their house. Give the 5.5 points and take LSU.

Week 6: Arkansas (-7.5) vs Auburn

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    The struggles without Cam Newton continue for Auburn as they head on the road to take on Arkansas. Look for the Razorbacks to win but take Auburn and the 7.5 points in a close game.

Week 6: Virginia Tech vs Miami (+7)

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    Usually by the middle of the season, Frank Beamer and the Hokies have things figured out and are making a run at the ACC crown. This year will be no different as they cover the spread against the Hurricanes.

Week 6: Arizona State (-2) at Utah

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    Arizona State is viewed as one of the potential winners in the Pac-12 South but watch things take a turn for the worse as they head to Utah. Take the points and the Utes as they show they can compete in the Pac-12.

Week 6: West Virginia (-13.5) vs Connecticut

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    Last years Big East champion comes into the game as a 13.5 dog. While West Virginia has the talent to win and win big, take the Huskies and the points in this conference game.

Week 6: Air Force (+10) at Notre Dame

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    While the Irish have struggled with service academies over the past few years, they will not have an issue in this game. Count on Brian Kelly and Notre Dame to cover the 10 points and win handily.

Week 6: Georgia at Tennessee (+3.5)

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    This could be the game that finishes Mark Richt's coaching career at Georgia. I think the Vols could surprise some people this year. Take Tennessee and the 3.5 points.

Week 6: Michigan (-4) at Northwestern

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    Despite being on the road, Michigan has the talent to win this game by two scores. The only X-factor at this point will be how is Denard Robinson handling the new offense. Monitor the Michigan offense but still take them.

Week 6: TCU at San Diego State (+6.5)

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    TCU has to head on the road for this game and should win but it will be close. Take San Diego State and the 6.5 points.

Week 7: San Diego State at Air Force (-3)

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    After a close game with TCU, San Diego State heads on the road to take on Air Force. Too much energy being spent the week before leads to a Falcons victory. Take Air Force and lay the points.

Week 7: Arizona State at Oregon (-11)

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    Last years game was closer then the score may indicate. Arizona State turned the ball over like it was a hot potato. This years game is at Autzen and that is bad news for the Sun Devils. Take Oregon and give the 11 points up.

Week 7: Oklahoma State (+3) vs Texas

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    Stop reading this article and start putting money on Oklahoma State. Despite playing on the road, the Cowboys are getting 3 points and might win by 10-14. Take Oklahoma State and do it fast.

Week 7: Florida (-1) vs Auburn

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    The game is at Auburn and the Gators are still giving up a point. By now the Gators offense should be on track but I would stick with the Tigers and take the point.

Week 7: Michigan at Michigan State (-3.5)

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    For three straight years, Michigan State has owned this rivalry and are ready to make it four. Michigan State is at home so take the Spartans and give up the 3.5 points.

Week 7: South Carolina (-1.5) at Mississippi State

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    In another SEC conference battle, South Carolina heads on the road to take on Mississippi State. I believe the game will remain close going to the fourth but too much offense by the Gamecocks. Give the 1.5 points and stick with South Carolina.

Week 7: Utah (+4) at Pittsburgh

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    Another game that looks like a steal is Utah getting points at Pittsburgh. The Utes will be ready for this road test so take the points and Utah and watch them win straight up.

Week 7: LSU at Tennessee (+9.5)

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    Again, LSU finds themselves on the road with a big spread and once again, I believe they cover it with ease. Take the Tigers and give 9.5 or even a full 10.

Week 8: Auburn vs LSU (-9.5)

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    Playing at home is a huge advantage and that is exactly what they get to do against Auburn. Just too much talent and depth for LSU to not pull away so take LSU and give the points.

Week 8: Oklahoma State (+2.5) at Missouri

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    With the loss at quarterback from last year, Missouri will struggle to keep pace with the Cowboys. Despite being on the road, take Oklahoma State and the 2.5 point gift.

Week 8: Wisconsin (+1) vs Michigan State

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    A night game at Spartan Stadium could get crazy. It will be a hard nosed game but given the homefield advantage, look for Sparty to cover the one point with a close win.

Week 8: USC vs Notre Dame (-4)

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    After breaking USC's win streak in the rivalry last year, the game moves back to South Bend for 2011. Notre Dame appears to have the talent to take down USC again this year but take the Trojans and the four points as this should be a close one.

Week 8: Maryland vs Florida State (-16)

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    Is 16 points too much for the Seminoles to cover at home against Maryland? No. Take Florida State and give up the big spread.

Week 8: Air Force (+20) vs Boise State

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    Playing at home on the blue turf, Boise State is not shy about the amount of points they will put on the scoreboard. While 20 points is a big spread, the Broncos will cover with ease.

Week 8: Tennessee vs Alabama (-21)

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    This may be closer than you would originally think. Alabama is at home but three touchdowns is a lot to overcome. The Tide will win but take Tennessee to keep it close.

Week 8: Penn State at Northwestern (Even)

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    Usually when a game has an even line, the initial reaction would be to take the home team. In this game, take Penn State as they earn a much needed road conference victory.

Week 9: Connecticut (+10) at Pittsburgh

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    This is another conference game that appears to have to big of a spread. Look for a tight game which means it is time to take Connecticut and the 10 points.

Week 9: BYU vs TCU (-7)

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    Another game that will take place in Dallas is between TCU and BYU. The Horned Frogs are giving 7 points and that is too many for me. Take the points and BYU.

Week 9: Stanford (-2) at USC

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    This is a game that could surprise a lot of people. Stanford is viewed as a serious Pac-12 contender but when the head down to USC, that will take a hit. Take the Trojans and the two points in this game.

Week 9: Missouri vs Texas A&M (-7.5)

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    Playing at home, Texas A&M should not have too much difficulty with Missouri. The Tigers offense will struggle and allow the Aggies to cover the 7.5 point spread.

Week 9: NC State at Florida State (-14.5)

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    Without Russell Wilson under center and on the road, NC State is in trouble in this game. The Seminole defense should cause some turnovers and lead to an easy Florida State win. Take FSU and give the 14.5 points.

Week 9: Michigan State at Nebraska (-7.5)

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    This game could very well determine who goes to the Big 10 championship game. Playing at Nebraska will be difficult but it should be a close game. The Cornhuskers will win but take the Spartans and the 7.5 points.

Week 9: Georgia (+3) vs Florida

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    As both teams head to Jacksonville, both will be looking to leave with a critical SEC victory. At a neutral site, take the Gators and give up the three points.

Week 9: South Carolina (-10.5) at Tennessee

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    South Carolina's offense will roll into Tennessee and continue to put up big numbers. Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery are too good for the 10.5 point spread. Take South Carolina.

Week 10: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma (-7.5)

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    In another Big 12 showdown, Oklahoma welcomes in Texas A&M. Again, Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles prove to be too much for the defense and win by two scores. Take Oklahoma and give the 7.5 points.

Week 10: LSU (+9) at Alabama

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    Granted Alabama is playing at home but against LSU a 9 point spread is just too good to pass up on. Take the Tigers and the points as these two SEC titans play a close one.

Week 10: South Carolina at Arkansas (-4)

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    As the SEC schedule starts to draw to an end, this will be an important game for South Carolina. With the offensive weapons they have, take the Gamecocks and the 4 points.

Week 10: Northwestern (+12) at Nebraska

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    Another game that seems like easy money is when Northwestern has to head into Lincoln and is only getting 12 points. Don't over think this one. Take the Cornhuskers and give the 12 points.

Week 11: Alabama (-7) at Mississippi State

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    After a big game against LSU, the Tide roll into Mississippi State for a match up against the Bulldogs. The 7 points shouldn't be an issue so take Alabama and give up the points.

Week 11: Oregon at Stanford (+1)

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    This is a game that many believe could determine the Pac-12 North winner and will likely win the Pac-12 championship game. Both of these teams will go back and forth scoring but there is too much offense for Stanford to keep up with. Take Oregon and give the point.

Week 11: TCU at Boise State (-13.5)

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    Without Andy Dalton, this game could get ugly for TCU. Playing at home, Boise State will put up a lot of points and bury the Horned Frogs. Take Boise and give the 13.5 points.

Week 11: Miami (+7.5) at Florida State

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    Florida State could be a top 10 at this point and a home game against Miami will not be something that slows them down. Give you the 7.5 points and take Florida State.

Week 11: Auburn at Georgia (-4.5)

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    A trip to Georgia will be Auburn's last conference game before the Iron Bowl. It will be a close battle but take the 4.5 points and Auburn.

Week 11: Florida (+6) at South Carolina

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    Both teams have solid defenses but the offense for South Carolina could be the difference. Playing at home and only giving 6 points isn't a bad spot so take South Carolina.

Week 11: Nebraska (-1) at Penn State

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    Nebraska will get their first taste of Happy Valley in 2011 and it will be an eye opening experience. While the crowd will make things very difficult, their is still too much talent for Nebraska to lose. Take the Cornhuskers and give up the point.

Week 11: Texas (+2) at Missouri

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    Texas heads on the road and will take on Missouri as a two point underdog. This game will be important to both teams but take the Longhorns and the two points.

Week 11: Notre Dame vs Maryland (+7.5)

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    Notre Dame's solid season will continue this week against Maryland. The spread is only 7.5 so take the Irish with confidence.

Week 11: Tennessee (+14) at Arkansas

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    Another game that I can see Tennessee giving a SEC opponent fits is this game against Arkansas. In the end, the Razorbacks will end up winning but take the Vols and the 14 points.

Week 12: USC at Oregon (-11)

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    Over the past two years, Oregon has had USC's number and won big both times. In 2011, USC heads back to the state of Oregon which gives them nightmares. Take Oregon and give the 11 points.

Week 12: Mississippi State vs Arkansas (-9)

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    Arkansas gets to play at home for the third straight week and takes on Mississippi State. While I do believe that Arkansas will win, take the Bulldogs and the 9 points.

Week 12: Nebraska (-1) at Michigan

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    After getting a taste of success at Happy Valley, Nebraska gets to play at the Big House against Michigan. Nebraska is only giving one point in this game so jump on it and take the Cornhuskers.

Week 12: Boise State at San Diego State (+17.5)

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    Kellen Moore will continue to lead the high scoring Boise State offense on the road to take on San Diego State. The Broncos are a 17.5 point favorite and will cover the spread.

Week 12: Cal (+12) at Stanford

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    With a 12 point spread, it is hard not to be tempted to take Cal in this rivalry game. Resist the urge and trust in Andrew Luck while at home. Give the points and cheer Stanford to a big victory.

Week 13: Texas (+7) at Texas A&M

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    Texas heads on the road to take on rival Texas A&M. They come into the game a seven point dog and for good reason. The Aggies will be too much to handle at home, even with the spread.

Week 13: Pittsburgh vs West Virginia (-6)

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    The Backyard Brawl gets ready for action again as Pittsburgh heads to West Virginia. The game will be close throughout, so take Pittsburgh and the 6 points.

Week 13: Arkansas at LSU (-4.5)

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    LSU may have a shot in this game to clinch a spot in the SEC title game. Should that be the case, Tiger Stadium will be rocking and not even the 4.5 points is enough to stop the Tigers. Take LSU.

Week 13: Alabama (-8) at Auburn

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    Last year was the game that got away from Alabama in the 2010 Iron Bowl. This year the Tide will have to go on the road to get revenge. Without Cam Newton Bama should win but take the 8 points and Auburn.

Week 13: Notre Dame at Stanford (-6.5)

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    Last year Andrew Luck and Stanford unloaded on Notre Dame and things don't appear to be much easier as the Irish have to head on the road for this game. The game will remain close early but the Cardinal will win and cover the 6.5 spread.

Week 13: Florida State (+1) at Florida

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    The battle for the state of Florida takes place in week 13 as Florida State heads on the road to play Florida. While both teams should have solid seasons, the Seminoles will have more on the line to take the point and FSU to win.

Week 13: Penn State (+7) at Wisconsin

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    This is a tough game for the Nittany Lions to wrap up the regular season with. They have to head on the road and take on a Wisconsin team that still may be in the hunt to go to the conference championship. Give up the 7 points and take the Badgers.

Week 13: NC State (-6.5) vs Maryland

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    The loss of Russell Wilson will be felt all the way through the end of the season. Despite playing at home, I would pass on NC State and take the points and Maryland.

Week 13: Michigan State (-3.5) at Northwestern

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    While the Spartans of old would lose this game, the Big 10 championship game may be in sight and keep Michigan State focused. Give up the points and take Michigan State.

Week 13: Georgia at Georgia Tech (+6.5)

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    With or without Mark Richt, this is a game that matches up well for the Bulldogs. Despite playing on the road, still take them and give up the 6.5 points.

Week 13: Mississippi (+12) vs Mississippi State

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    Dan Mullen stated last year that the Bulldogs would not drop another game to Ole Miss. In there game this year, I agree with him. Give away the 12 points and take Mississippi State.

Week 13: Oregon (-14) vs Oregon State

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    The Civil War has been one sided for the past three years as Oregon has won them. This year the game returns to Autzen and with the offensive firepower of the Ducks, don't be afraid to give the 14 and take the Ducks.

Week 13: UCLA vs USC (-6.5)

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    If Rick Rick Neuheisel makes it to this point in the season it may be a good sign for UCLA fans. The bad sign is they are playing at USC and the 6.5 point spread is not enough to discourage you from taking them.

Week 13: Clemson (+12) vs South Carolina

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    Last year, Clemson lost to South Carolina 29-7. The only thing that will change in 2011 is that the Gamecocks should put up more points. Take South Carolina.

Week 14: Oklahoma (-2) at Oklahoma State

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    Last year saw a lot of points go up on the board. In 2011 we will see more of the same as both of these teams enter the game with dynamic offenses. Things should go back and forth until the final whistle but take the Sooners to win by more then 2 points.