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The Bettor's Guide, Week 9

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The Bettor's Guide, Week 9

 

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(As always, all lines referenced for this week come from Bodog.com on Thursday afternoon)

 

Didn’t get to post my stuff last week, had some computer issues that, by the time they were resolved, would’ve made my writing irrelevant. Apologies all around.

 

You have to take my word on how I did last week, but it was nothing eye-poppingly great so one would think I wouldn’t lie.

 

Last Week’s Great Picks

Kansas (+20) to cover at Oklahoma

Ole Miss (+13.5) to cover Alabama

The under (o/u 44) in the Arkansas at Kentucky game

Northwestern (-4) vs. Purdue

 

Last Week’s “Wish I could do ‘em over(s)”

Missouri on the moneyline at Texas (Hey Tigers D! I think they’re gonna pass!)

South Carolina on the moneyline vs. LSU (had it until the 5:00 of the 4th)

Wake Forest (+2.5) at Maryland (So the Terrapins good team showed up)

 

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

I took a parlay with Kansas, Ole Miss, and Northwestern ATS and South Carolina on the moneyline. Would’ve paid out $34 on a $1 bet.  Replace South Carolina on the moneyline with Virginia or Maryland and that bet hits.

 

If you can’t wait ‘til Saturday

 

Boise State (-7.5) at San Jose State

I don’t know why people are calling this a “test game” for Boise State. I’m mean, in one sentence people are defending the credibility of this mid-major by dishing out pertinent stats, in the next sentence they’re defending San Jose St.’s three point win over UC-Davis.

Boise State has won all but one of their games by at least double digits (their five point victory over then #17 Oregon is the exception). Take Boise State and expect them to do what they should do to inferior competition.

 

The Big Three

 

#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas (-12.5)

I believe. There, I said it. I believe in Texas. In the past two weeks I’ve believed in Missouri (twice) and Illinois. But we’ll stick with this team that hasn’t failed to cover all season. When Colt McCoy throws for eight picks in this game, well, maybe we should start thinking about another article for me to write.

 

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State (-2.5)

I’m abstaining. Violates rule #1 of my betting rules. As such, it doesn’t count as part of my Big Three.

 

#9 Georgia at #13 LSU (-2)

I honestly read an argument this week in which a Georgia fan was defending LSU’s loss to Florida trying to make it appear “not that bad”, basically so this game appeared better.  Really? We’ve resorted to this huh?

 

As for the game, it’ll come up later in my moneyline pick of the week. Take Georgia (+2) and don’t look back. While you’re at it, bet the under as well (+/-48.5).

 

#8 Texas Tech at #19 Kansas (-1)

Texas Tech has struggled this season and they haven’t played the toughest of competition either. But I just can’t get past the feeling they are going to paste the Jayhawks in a let down game for them. Kansas just gave Oklahoma three quarters of hell, but couldn’t pull out the W. Now their reward is the run-and-gun Red Raiders.

 

Texas Tech, straight up. Call it moneyline pick part 2.

 

Lines I Love!

Northwestern at Indiana (+8)

Indiana has lost their past five games by: 22, 13, 9, 36 and 42 points.

Northwestern is coming off a 22 point blow out of Purdue. Take Northwestern. Please.

Also take the over (+/- 50).

 

Kentucky at Florida (-24.5)

Kentucky has only given up 24 points IN A GAME one time this season. They won’t win, but their defense will keep it under three TDs.

 

Virginia Tech at #25 Florida State (O/U 44)

Contrary to what I wrote in my “game I’m staying away from” segment, I’ll continue to bet the Over/Under.  This game would shock me to death if it hit the over.

 

Notre Dame at Washington (+11)

The game no one is talking about because one team no one believes in and the other team is just gawd-awful.  The Domers should cover without much of a fight. If the Huskies actually play well, they’ll still lose by two touchdowns.

 

 

 

Other games that pique my interest (That’s right, I used pique in a betting column)

#5 USC at Arizona (+16.5) – As I said in my ADD column, USC is taking out their screw up vs. Oregon State on everyone else. I’d keep betting USC until they fail to cover.

 

#23 Minnesota at Purdue (-1) – Overachieving team, on the road, against an opponent that isn’t as bad as their record. I like Purdue here.

 

#4 Oklahoma at Kansas State (+19.5) – Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Oklahoma. It should be a no-brainer.

 

Rutgers at #17 Pitt (-9.5) – Pitt has only covered twice this season. It was their last two games. I call this one to be the third.

 

Duke at Vanderbilt (O/U 41) – Five years ago, you took the under because neither team knew how to play offense. This weekend you take the under because both teams can play defense. Well…take away Duke’s slip up last week at least.

 

 

Games I’m staying far, far away from

Consider this my permanent statement for the rest of the season: I’m not betting on any ACC games period, bold, italics and exclamation point. Too many teams that are too similar talent wise. That and I’m tired of trying to figure out Maryland and Virginia.

 

And I’d like to believe North Carolina is undefeated right now if they didn’t have injuries to T.J. Yates and Brandon Tate.

 

Colorado at #16 Missouri (-22) – So you’re asking a team that just had two monumental, season-changing losses to come home and win by 3+ TDs? I’m sorry; I have to see it first.

 

#2 Alabama at Tennessee (+6.5) – Seems like a gimme right? Rivalry games my friend…I don’t mess with them.

 

Ole Miss at Arkansas (+5) – Rivalry games and vengeance games: they go hand-in-hand.

 

Wyoming at #14 TCU (-31) – LET DOWN GAME! Or as I’ve dubbed it, the Cialis Special.

 

Money Line Pick of the Week

 

#9 Georgia at #13 LSU

Tigers fans, I really do respect your team and program. I’m not trying to rag on them specifically I swear. But when I watch them play, they just don’t have that same kill instinct, on either side of the ball, that they had the past couple season.

 

Georgia’s playing to set up a SEC title game rematch vs. Alabama; I think they’ll win outright.

 

Happy betting boys and girls! And remember, that lucky parlay is out there somewhere.

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