With no college football on TV for the past several days, I've had a chance to get some good sleep and head into this weekend's games well rested and ready to go.
I have learned a very valuable secret over the past few days. If I ever need to get sleep and I can't crash, I just need to watch some pro football, mix in a baseball game or two, and sprinkle in a political debate, and I'll be sawing Z's faster than you can say Joe the plumber.
With a great matchup tonight and a full slate for Saturday I'm not going to need to use that little trick, but I will definitely remember it.
In any event, it's on to tonight's games and the weekend where I try to build on my winning record overall. I haven't had a huge winning week since Week Two really, and I haven't suffered any train wreck weeks either, so maybe this is my breakout week.
Though tonight's games are a little tough and Thursday hasn't been my night in general, I think this weekend shapes up really well.
It's pretty obvious why Thursday isn't great for me. That's because it is usually at the very most three games, and I feel obligated to pick all of them since I know my readers want to know.
While if we threw out all of the Thursday and Friday games I've missed or that I said "I'm just picking this because it's X day," my record would be much better, such is life when you put yourself out there picking games—and let's face it, I love this stuff.
Speaking of picking games, there is still plenty of time to sign up for my free weekly game-picking contest, which will begin next week. You can really enter before any week as the contest isn't cumulative because of the late start we're getting, and because my readership rate is still remarkably growing at a pretty decent double-digit clip on a weekly basis and triple digits monthly.
I appreciate everyone who stops by and everyone who contributes their comments and posts in the forums, which are just getting going.
FSU -11 at NC State (Thursday, Oct. 16, 7:30 EST): 5 out of 10
Both FSU and NC State had a bye last week and should be well rested, though both of their teams have injury lists close to 15 players long. For the Seminoles, they enter this contest at a respectable 4-1, though two of their wins came against Chattanooga and Western Carolina, and their loss came at home against a tough Wake Forest team.
NC State enters at 2-4, playing their fourth home game in a row, and losers of three of their last four, with one of their wins coming by 10 points against I-AA William and Mary. NC State has traditionally played FSU extremely tough, and while they haven't won every time out, they haven't lost against the spread vs. the 'Noles since 2000
The reason I'm on the 'Noles is I simply feel they have far superior athletes, and NC State and head coach Tom O'Brien have proven very little over a long period of time. Statistically the Wolfpack are one of the worst teams in the country on both sides of the ball, ranking North of 100 in just about every offensive and defensive category.
While this may not be the best team during Bobby Bowden's tenure at FSU, they seem to have found a QB in Christian Ponder for the first time since Chris Weinke graduated early this decade.
If the Seminoles are to make good on my prediction, they are going to have to break a lot of trends, but as things generally work trends will even out over time—it's just a matter of how long. I think Thursday is the night for the 'Noles as I look for them to cover fairly comfortably.
For the other game tonight and more of Mitch's Part Three picks, visit The College Football Place.