Mitch's Week Six College Football Picks: Part Three

Mitch WilsonSenior Writer IOctober 1, 2008

Thanks to Boise State we now have 60 wins so far this young season as we continue to produce yet another winning campaign picking games against the spread.

In a game where you're never quite sure which way the ball is going to bounce, I know 60 wins is no small feat considering most of the other guys don't even pick 60 games all season. I always try and keep things real and keep my head screwed on straight about any achievements, but I'm all smiles thanks to Boise State.

I'm not sure if anyone picked up on it last night, but it was pretty obvious that the ESPN guys have been poking around my blog as they quoted my video commentary from Oct. 1 during the game. As you know, I don't really care that much one way or another about that stuff as I keep it simple just looking for a solid cover, but it's nice to know that of my thousands of daily visitors, those guys are some of them, and while I watch their stuff they are doing the same over here.

Speaking of visitors, I want to welcome all of the people visiting here, The College Football Place, maybe for the first time, who caught the podcast interview Yaro Starak did with me about blogging on his very highly ranked Entrepreneurs-Journey site, or any of the people who normally read Fox Sports and Bleacher Creature Lisa Horne's blog, as she'll be posting my picks against her's today. I'll update this article with a hyperlink.

You are all more than welcome here, and feel free to shoot me an e-mail or leave me a comment with any suggestions, comments, or ideas you have. Also, feel free to ask any questions you have, as well. Whether you're a football fan, picker, or blogger, we're all in this together.

For my regular readers, you'll notice some of the games I pick with Lisa aren't in my normal games, so they may have ended up in my Games I Wouldn't Touch article I put out every week, but since the picking thing with her is more of a fun thing I went ahead and took my best shot at them.

If they don't appear in my regular picks, they won't be counting in my record, so if you have any thoughts or questions, you guys know how to reach me. In any event, we have three games tonight, and while I already did the South Florida-Pittsburgh pick earlier this week, here's the rest of tonight's games with a few more for this weekend.


Utah -11 vs. Oregon State (Thursday 10/2/08, 9 EST) 1 Unit

When I see this line and the way the public action is setting up, I'm unsure if this is just a textbook case of me missing something or I wonder if the public is so off base that it sets up as one of those opportunities that we look for that only come up a few times a year.

I have said this a few times this season, and on each occasion my instincts have been right. While I give Oregon State all of the credit in the world for beating then-No. 1 USC in Corvallis, I still have trouble giving them props overall, as, in the big picture, they have been ran over by Penn State and lost to a bad Stanford team.

Utah, on the other hand, sits at 5-0 with a win at Michigan, at Air Force, and a solid 21-point win over a decent UNLV team. I just don't see this game being competitive, maybe someone can point me where I may be off.

I still believe the Beaver defense is sieve-like, and while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Mountain West Conference and 4-0 against the spread following their last four straight-up wins, I have to question the relevance of those trends given the youth and inexperience of this OSU team.

Utah is a solid 8-3-1 against the spread in its last 12 games, 7-3-2 against the spread in its last 12 home games, and 24-8-1 in its last 33 non-conference games. While that last trend may lose some of its relevance because of the time period it covers, it just shows the Utes don't back down when moving outside of their conference to play the big BCS conferences. I think Utah covers and stays on track for a showdown with BYU to be a BCS buster.


See the rest of Part Three of Mitch's Week Six picks at The College Football Place.