2011 BCS Championship Game: Auburn and Oregon Prognostication Time
It is now time to try and prognosticate the BCS National Championship Game. While the following will be the opinion of this writer, all fans are encouraged to post their own prognostications and predictions.
In preparation for this prognostication, every conceivable statistic and measurable variable has been programmed into the prognostication process. While this prognostication may or may not be worth the time it took to type out, it was an exercise in effort that took over one month to complete. A batch of 150,000 simulations was run as part of this prognostication process.
The same programs and prognostication tools were used for this article as for the games in the SEC this year. Even with all of this care, this is college football, and cross conference games are particularly difficult. The same process was used in the Arkansas vs. Ohio State game and the prediction was a three-point win for Arkansas. Obviously this was not the case, so take this for what it is worth.
In simulations of this game Auburn was predicted the better team 68 percent of the time with a margin of error of 11 percent. This does not mean Auburn will win this game, but it does indicate that they might have the most advantage.
Much to the surprise of many, Oregon showed up best in games that were low scoring. Oregon was really consistent in the simulations scoring constantly between 24 and 35 points with a slight peak just over 30 points.
Oregon won 58 percent of the time when Auburn scored under 30 points. That being said, Auburn scored more than 30 points 90 percent of the time. Auburn showed an erratic scoring curve that peaked three times in scores of 38 points and above.
Oregon’s performance was projected best when 30 percent of their offensive production was passing. When the passing percentage was higher, their chances of prevailing was reduced, and it was drastic as passing production approached 40 percent.
Auburn’s chances were best when 40 percent or more of their offense was passing. This remained fairly unchanged to just above 50 percent.
Oregon consistently produced between 300 and 400 yards of offense and 24 to 35 points. Auburn varied more between 350 and 600 yards and 38 to 62 points. Fans must remember these are averages on a production curve, and there were examples for both teams above and below the average.
From the results of the tools available it would seem that the Auburn defense might have a little better chance of slowing the Oregon offense. It also seems that Oregon has a very real chance of finding a scheme to win this game. This chance would seem to be in the 35 percent range.
Auburn’s quarterback and receivers have a very distinct advantage over the Oregon secondary. Auburn has the top rated passing efficiency offense in the land, and that simply says it all.
Oregon’s quarterback and receivers are ranked No. 16 in the nation and Auburn’s pass efficiency defense is ranked 75. Oregon has the advantage here in a big way.
Auburn’s running backs have a big advantage over the Oregon linebackers. It will be a tough task for the Oregon linebackers to contain the Auburn rushing attack.
Oregon’s running backs have a big advantage over the Auburn linebackers. How well they play disciplined, assignment football could decide the outcome of the game.
Auburn’s offensive line has the advantage over the Oregon defensive line. To put it bluntly, they are simply bigger, stronger and faster.
Oregon’s offensive line could hold its own against the Auburn defensive line. They have an offensive scheme that helps in this area as well.
Auburn should win this game, but the margin of error is lower than in many games Auburn has played this year. Auburn matches up well against Oregon as their defensive scheme is particularly vulnerable to the Auburn offensive scheme.
Contrary to what many believe, Oregon will do better in this game if they play a slower, ball control pace. The quick, blur version of Oregon’s scheme will result in the Auburn offense having more opportunities to have the ball. Every indicator shows that this is not a good matchup for the Oregon defense.
Auburn should go north of 40 and Oregon south of 35 in this one.
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