BCS National Championship: A Realistic Look at Auburn, Oregon & How They Compare

Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse more stories
BCS National Championship: A Realistic Look at Auburn, Oregon & How They Compare
Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

Statistics do not lie but often they are misinterpreted or flat out manipulated.

Fans are excited to watch what promises to be one of the most exciting BCS Championship games that have ever been played.

To give an accurate view of Auburn and Oregon is very difficult. The two teams played in different conferences.

This article is aimed at making fans educated enough on both teams to make up their own minds.

Both teams run a tempo oriented scheme and this is affected by the opponent’s performance on both offense and defense. Balanced teams are more difficult for tempo based teams to defeat.

An opponent that is competent on both offense and defense will reduce the tempo desired for such teams.

Comparing Schedules

Team

Opponent

Opponent Record

Opponent Offensive Rank

Opponent Defensive Rank

Auburn

Arkansas State

4-8

43

105

Oregon

New Mexico

1-11

120

119

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Mississippi State

8-4

47

52

Oregon

Tennessee

6-6

74

70

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Clemson

6-6

87

23

Oregon

Portland State

2-9

FCS 23

FCS 115

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

South Carolina

9-4

50

51

Oregon

Arizona State

6-6

29

58

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Louisiana Monroe

5-7

84

67

Oregon

Stanford

11-1

14

24

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Kentucky

6-6

26

49

Oregon

Washington State

2-10

93

118

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Arkansas

10-2

10

33

Oregon

UCLA

4-8

99

95

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

LSU

10-2

92

8

Oregon

Southern California

8-5

28

83

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Mississippi

4-8

46

80

Oregon

Washington

6-6

75

84

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Chattanooga

6-5

FCS 11

FCS 80

Oregon

California

5-7

90

19

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Georgia

6-6

48

30

Oregon

Arizona

7-5

24

36

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Alabama

9-3

27

6

Oregon

Oregon State

5-7

94

86

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

South Carolina

9-4

50

51

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn

Oregon

12-0

2

26

Oregon

Auburn

13-0

7

53

 

 

 

 

 

Average Auburn

2010 Season

7.4-4.6

41

45

Average Oregon

2010 Season

5.8-6.2

59

74

 

There are 120 teams in the FBS Division. This makes a team ranked between one and 60 in the top half of the division.

There is a 156 yard decrease in production per game from the number one ranked offense and the number 60 ranked offense. There is a 154 yard increase per game in allowed yards between the number one ranked defense and the number 60 ranked defense.

Auburn played seven teams that finished better than a rank of 60 in both total offense and total defense. Oregon played three teams that finished better than 60 in both total offense and defense. This is a large enough sampling for both teams to give fans an idea of how the teams compare against quality competition.

Oregon’s Statistics against Sample

Opponent

Number of Offensive Plays

Total Offense

Total Defense

Arizona State

54

385 yards

597 yards

Stanford

71

626 yards

518 yards

Arizona

71

537 yards

506 yards

Average

65.33

516 yards

540 yards

Oregon gave up, on average, 540 yards to the opposition in these games and an average of 392 yards passing to these teams. They only gave up 148 yards on the ground on average.

Oregon gained an average of 300.66 yards rushing against these defenses and passed for 215 yards against them. They scored an average of 47 points while allowing an average of 30 points per game.

This is a winning margin of 17 points against quality opponents.

Auburn’s Statistics against Sample

Opponent

Number of Offensive Plays

Total Offense

Total Defense

Mississippi State

58

348 yards

246 yards

South Carolina

74

492 yards

384 yards

Kentucky

65

521 yards

336 yards

Arkansas

59

470 yards

560 yards

Georgia

69

463 yards

353 yards

Alabama

54

324 yards

446 yards

South Carolina

60

589 yards

349 yards

Average

62.7

458 yards

382 yards

Auburn gave up an average of 369 yards to the opposition in these games and an average of 276 yards to these teams. Auburn only allowed 107.14 yards on the ground in these games.

They rushed for 261 yards per game against these opponents and passed for 197 yards. They allowed 28 points per game while scoring 41 points.

This is a winning margin of 13 points per game.

Overview

Statistic

Auburn 

Oregon 

Offensive Plays Per Game

62.7 plays

65.33 plays

Total Offense Per Game

472 yards

516 yards

Total Defense Per Game

369 yards

540 yards

Total Scoring Offense Per Game

41 points

47 points

Total Scoring Defense Per Game

28 points

30 points

Average Opponent Offense Rank in Sample

37 nationally

22.33 nationally

Average Opponent Defense Rank in Sample

44 nationally

39 nationally

While it appears that Oregon’s opponents were of better quality in this sample, this is not the case.

With the exception of Kentucky the opponents for Auburn played a much more difficult schedule on the year. Fans can assume these samples were fairly consistent for both sides in this comparison.

There are some surprising results in this comparison. The biggest surprise is the remarkable similarity of the offensive tempo. The two teams executed within three total offensive plays of each other when facing quality competition.

It's not likely that either team will exceed the 60 to 65 play average by much in this game; it is more likely that both teams will perform exactly as they have all season against quality competition.

These are two quality teams on both offense and defense.

When all of the necessary statistics are programmed in and simulations are run, there are some surprising results.

  1. This game might not be close. In winning scenarios for both teams, the margin of victory is more than two touchdowns a large percentage of the time.
  2. The passing game might be more important than anyone thinks. In the majority of winning scenarios, the winning team passes for more than 200 yards in the game.
  3. The total combined score will not likely exceed the 90 points predicted.
  4. The combined score is less than 70 in half of all winning scenarios.
  5. The Auburn pass defense is likely to perform better than expected.
  6. The Auburn rush defense will likely give up more yards than expected.
  7. The Oregon defense will likely give up more than 500 total yards of offense.
  8. There will be a large number of impact plays of longer than 15 yards in the game.

These two teams are a great match and the smallest advantage for one side or the other will show up in magnified form in the results. This could well be a game where both teams have periods of utter dominance on both sides of the ball.

No matter if you are an Auburn or Oregon fan, or just a fan of college football in general, this promises to be a very entertaining game.

Simulations do show that one of these teams wins more than 70 percent of the time. As this article is formed to allow fans to make up their own minds, this bit of information will be retained for future prognostication purposes.

Load More Stories

Follow Oregon Ducks Football from B/R on Facebook

Follow Oregon Ducks Football from B/R on Facebook and get the latest updates straight to your newsfeed!

Oregon Ducks Football

Subscribe Now

We will never share your email address

Thanks for signing up.