College Football: Honestly, the Odds Are Against Boise State and TCU in the BCS
If both Auburn and Oregon lose, would TCU and Boise State move into the two top spots?
It's a legitimate question to ask.
After all, both Auburn and Oregon are playing legitimate teams this weekend while TCU and Boise State are playing...wait, who are they playing again? Oh yeah, TCU is playing 1-10 New Mexico while Boise gets challenged by 10-1 Nevada.
Listen, there is no need to debate the merits of how worthy either TCU or Boise are where being granted a BCS National Championship berth is concerned because, well, neither of them deserve a shot at the title based on the schedules they've played—specifically when placed up against that of either Oregon or Auburn.
That said, the BCS isn't about strength of schedule—that makes only a small difference where their overall ranking is concerned—so, if Auburn and Oregon both lose, while TCU and Boise State both win out, they should, hypothetically, get the nod—right?
Well, that isn't likely going to happen and you don't have to agree with the math or pour over stats and historical precedent to see the writing on the wall as to why.
Just look at the landscape of college football this season and note the conversations—the BCS big boys never counted on either TCU or Boise State still being undefeated by this point.
Can we be honest about that much?
Seriously, Boise was "supposed" to lose to Virginia Tech to start the year. They were not supposed to win that game, playing in hostile territory on a national stage, against a Frank Beamer-coached team—no way, no how. They caused a collective jaw-drop when they walked off Fed-Ex field victorious because the naysayers knew the consequence of such an act was another run for Boise State in 2010.
It wasn't a hard record to predict because, to be honest, watching Boise play any team in the WAC is a lot like watching a friend play NCAA 2011 on rookie mode—boring and unimpressive.
They are, literally, the best team on the field every week because there isn't one team in the WAC that can hold their water bottles.
As for TCU, they kept defying the odds too.
Some felt Oregon State might have beaten them, but the Beavers didn't seem to feel that way and, as usual, they proved to be ineffective in a big game—outside of the state of Oregon.
Then there was their game against Utah: "Oh my, TCU has NEVER won in Salt Lake City and the Utes are a very good football team." Yeah, and the powers that be were so solid in their conviction of that game that they left it off the national schedule—it wasn't even offered to 70 percent of the college football viewing public.
Honestly, it seems like the big boys aren't all that interested in letting the non-BCS schools come sit next to them at the dinner table. They want them to be content to catch whatever scraps they drop from their meal so, if either Oregon or Auburn lose their games, there is little likelihood that either TCU or Boise will have enough points to jump over them: "No one wants to see that game, so let's keep it from happening."
Of course, most of this sounds like a conspiracy theory and there is no way to prove that any of this will actually come to fruition, unless the top two teams in the nation actually lose. However, consider this: Boise State opened the year ranked third in the nation, yet they've never managed to get higher than that—despite annihilating every team they've played.
Even TCU has jumped them, despite the fact that the Horned Frogs barely beat San Diego State last weekend.
Is it fair? You be the judge, but it's becoming more and more obvious that there is definitely no balance.
What say you?
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