LSU-Arkansas: Can Les Miles' Luck Hold Out One More Game And Win BCS Bowl Bid?

Bohdi SandersContributor IIINovember 22, 2010

BATON ROUGE, LA - NOVEMBER 20:  Stevan Ridley #34 of the Louisiana State University Tigers reacts after scoring the go-ahead toucdown in the final minutes of the fourth quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Tiger Stadium on November 20, 2010 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

LSU rolls into Little Rock this week to end their regular season. A win over the Razorbacks could very well land the Tigers in a BCS Bowl. If things fall into place perfectly, the Tigers could actually get to the BCS Championship game.

In order for a miracle like that to happen, several unlikely events would probably have to take place.

First Auburn would have to lose to Alabama and South Carolina. It is unlikely that the Tigers could jump over a one-loss Auburn team which actually defeated LSU. But if Auburn loses both of their next two games, LSU has an outside shot.

For that to happen, they would also have to leapfrog TCU and Boise State. I doubt that this would happen unless Nevada can upset Boise this weekend. But, Nevada has a good team, and an upset against Boise is definitely not an impossibility.

If Boise loses and Auburn falls apart, the Tigers actually have a very good shot at making it to the BCS Championship game. LSU would most likely jump over an undefeated TCU, because of TCU's weak schedule.

So, although LSU needs a lot of help to get a ticket to the big party, it is definitely possible. That is unless the Tigers drop the ball against Arkansas.

Many people feel that Arkansas will be able to pull off the upset, especially since the Razorbacks have the home field advantage. I am not one of those people.

I think that Arkansas definitely have enough talent to upset the Tigers, but there is a couple of factors which are going against the Razorbacks.

First, since the NCAA started to implement the overtime rule, a very interesting pattern has evolved. When a team has to extend game play into overtime, they generally do not play well during the next game. Yes, this is simply one of those statistics that gamblers use, but it has shown a definite pattern.

Arkansas had to go into two overtimes to beat Mississippi State Saturday night. That emotional roller coaster could be a factor for the Hogs. Overtime games, for whatever reason, seem to take a lot out of both teams. Will the Hogs be ready to go this week?

The other factor is that Les Miles seems to be charmed this year. Almost everything is going his way, with the exception of the Auburn game. Les Miles almost seems destined to win. The Razorbacks may be playing, not only against the Tigers, but against fate.

But don't count out the Hogs just yet. Although we have heard much about the great LSU defense this year, Ole Miss proved that they are not a brick wall. A good offense can move the ball against LSU, and Arkansas has a good offense.

My prediction is that this game will be very entertaining and will go down to the wire. We will see both teams moving the ball up and down the field. But in the end, I think that Les Miles and the LSU defense will find a way to get the job done once again.

LSU will win in a fairly close game, at least it will be a close game until the forth quarter. I think that the Mississippi State game took a toll on the Hogs, and they will not have enough steam to last four quarters against a motivated Tiger team. Les Miles' luck holds out, but LSU's final destiny lies in the hands of Auburn and Boise State.

On a side note, one of my readers (Angela), an Arkansas fan, runs a BBQ place in Hot Springs called The Rib Cage. Angela sent me a bottle of their special BBQ sauce. If the Razorback play as well as that BBQ sauce taste, they should have no problem upsetting the Tigers. It should be a good game!

Bohdi Sanders ~