There are 70 bowl berths.
Currently there are 64 eligible teams with only one other spot guaranteed to be filled (some Sun Belt Team TBD; at least one will become eligible).
So we still need five Bowl Eligible teams and a Sun Belt team. I will look at the rest and say what I believe their odds are.
I'll save the crazy Sun Belt for last.
Need to beat Texas A&M at home. Difficult, but not highly unlikely.
UPDATE: TEXAS LOST TO TEXAS A&M AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Possible. Nebraska is in a slump and the Buffs will have the Refs on their side.
UPDATE: COLORADO LOST TO NEBRASKA AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Rutgers in Jersey. 50/50 chance
UPDATE: LOUISVILLE WON VS RUTGERS AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat Louisville and WVU. 50/50 vs UL, then need inspiration.
UPDATE: RUTGERS LOST TO LOUISVILLE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat UConn and Pitt. Close to impossible.
UPDATE: CINCINNATI LOST TO CONNECTICUT AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to win @ Texas Tech. 25-percent chance
UPDATE: HOUSTON LOST TO TEXAS TECH AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Bowling Green. Could go Bowling after bowling through Bowling Green
UPDATE: WESTERN MICHIGAN WON VS BOWLING GREEN AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat Washington. Close to 50/50.
UPDATE: CAL LOST TO WASHINGTON AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Cal and Washington State. Expect them or Cal to be in.
Need to beat Arizona State and USC. A very tough task, likely out.
UPDATE: UCLA LOST TO ARIZONA STATE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Needs to beat Stanford or Oregon. Likely lose both. I give them a better chance vs. the Ducks.
Need to beat Georgia Tech at home. 75-percent chance IMO.
UPDATE: GEORGIA WON VS GEORGIA TECH AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat Kentucky. 60-percent chance.
UPDATE: TENNESSEE WON VS KENTUCKY AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat San Jose State and Nevada. Almost impossible.
Need to beat Fresno State and San Jose State. Possible, but unlikely.
UPDATE: IDAHO LOST TO FRESNO STATE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Western Kentucky or Florida Atlantic. Book them.
UPDATE: TROY WON VS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat Louisiana-Lafayette. Highly likely.
UPDATE: ULM LOST TO ULL AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Need to beat Arkansas State or MTST. Great chance.
UPDATE: FIU WON VS ARKANSAS STATE AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
Need to beat MTST and Troy. Close to impossible.
UPDATE: FAU LOST TO MTST AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE
Middle Tennessee State
Need to beat FAU and FIU. About 30-percent chance.
So with the five remaining spots, plus one Sun Belt team, these are the teams I feel are likely to become bowl-eligible from the list above from best chance to worst.
1. Western Michigan (Eligible)
3. Troy (Eligible)
4. Louisiana-Monroe (OUT)
5. Florida International (Eligible)
6. Georgia (Eligible)
7. Tennessee (Eligible)
8. Louisville (Eligible)
9. Texas (OUT)
10. Houston (OUT)
11. Oregon State
I personally don't give anyone else a chance.
So it appears that we will have at least 70 teams become bowl eligible.
From that list of 11, only Troy, FIU and Oregon State can get to seven wins. So while ULM has a great chance of being bowl-eligible they are likely going to be left out in favor of more prestigious schools.
If I had to guess the six schools that will be going bowling, they would be:
EDITS: BOWL ELIGIBLE TEAMS IN BOLD. INELIGIBLE IN ITALICS.
Georgia (SEC affiliated bowl)
Washington (Pac-10 affiliated bowl)
Troy (Sun Belt affiliated bowl)
FIU (Sun Belt affiliated bowl)
Louisville (Big East affiliated bowl)
Tennessee (SEC affiliated bowl)
I predict 72 bowl-eligible teams. WMU and ULM, I predict, will be left out in the cold.
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