Is Being Preseason No. 1 Really a Bad Thing?

I've seen a lot of people in the past couple weeks try to caution others about Georgia's chances to win the national title.  "It's difficult to go wire-to-wire at number one," they say, before invariably quoting some sort of stat about how few preseason No. 1 teams end up national champions.

Is that really a valid statement?  On the face of it, yes: It is indeed difficult to start and end No. 1.  Only one team a year gets the chance to do it.  Since the AP Poll has only released preseason rankings since 1950, that means just 58 teams have ever been handed that opportunity.

Georgia became the 59th team this past weekend.  In a predictable response, ESPN.com trotted out the old familiar saw.  However, let's engage our brains for a bit and ask the relevant question at hand: If you don't want to be the No. 1 team, where do you want to be ranked?

Thanks to the AP Poll Archive, we can look up all of the previous preseason top-ranked teams to find out where they finished.  Here is a handy chart that shows the count of times each preseason rank has produced a national title.  Ranks that have yet to do so have been omitted.

Hmm...as it turns out, you do want to be preseason No. 1, because that ranking slot has produced the most national champions at 10.  The No. 2 slot has produced seven champions, while the No. 4, No. 8, and No. 9 spots all tied for third with four.

There are two important things to note about the high number of champions that were unranked in the preseason.

First, through 1960, the AP Poll only included 20 teams.  Two champions, 1958 LSU and 1960 Minnesota, were unranked in those preseasons but presumably could have been between 21-25 in a full poll.

Second, from 1961-67, the poll only included 10 teams.  One champion, 1962 USC, started the season unranked in that era but presumably could have been ranked between 11-25 in a full poll.

Of course, there are some psychological issues that go along with being the preseason No. 1 team.  You have a huge target on your back.  Your players might get fat and happy on the attention and hype.  If you have a young team, it could buckle under the pressure of expectations if faced with early adversity.

There are also advantages.  The pollsters by and large think you're the best team, so you're likely to get the benefit of the doubt.  Polls are sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy in that way.  Plus, as long as you win you won't drop (or at least you won't drop below No. 2).

You can ask USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn about the advantages associated with being ranked at the top in regards to the 2004 season.

If you want to say there's danger in being the preseason No. 1 team, that's fine.  There's a case to be made there.

However, "history is not on your side" is not that case.  If you find someone trying to sell you that, tell them they're full of it.